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Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis

NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html
NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html
NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%)
NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar.
https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866
NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below
https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
!!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should.
In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase.
Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below:
https://www.playboy.com/
https://www.playboytv.com/
https://www.playboyplus.com/
https://www.iplayboy.com/
Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success.
“Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.”
https://www.scientificgames.com/
https://www.microgaming.co.uk/
“This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.”
https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/
As per their SEC filing:
“Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1
They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon.
https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era
Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea
“Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.”
“According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently:
https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae
Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress.
Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait.
https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/
Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html
Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05
Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing:
“For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.”
“In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.”
They are profitable across all three of their current business segments.
“Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm
This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world.
"Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.”
Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame:
“As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn.
The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :(
He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :)
Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw.
I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003
Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this:
“Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy.
“Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative.
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html
Y’all like that China money?
“Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.”
Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose.
I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing
“Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.”
“Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.”
Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong.
Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will.
Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way.
Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains.
TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here:
WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though
https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf
Or here:
https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx
Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.”
STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon.
Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.
submitted by jeromeBDpowell to SPACs [link] [comments]

$700,000 Bet on Fintech - BFT

$700,000 Bet on Fintech - BFT
Alright Degenerates- I posted a small little snippet a day or so ago about BFT. I wanted to do a bit of DD on BFT but also wanted to highlight something that was brought to my attention by a degenerate gambler. Lastly, I wanted to compile some good little snippets that have been put together by some other members as well as from the investor presentation.
Before reading further please understand the major Risks.
  • This is SPAC with ~10.00 NAV, if the deal falls through it could drop to 10.00 USD
  • The warrants could be very lucrative but they can be called and if a deal fails to materialize, these can become worthless.
  • If you're ok with the above risks, continue reading.
Keep in mind that this merger is not complete, but the terms of the deal have been provided to investors and we will be able to either vote yes for the deal or vote no and redeem our shares in BFT for 10.00 cash. So there is downside to this play should the vote not go through or should the two entities terminate the agreement. Right now the downside is ~3 dollars per share according to the close price from today.

MY POSITIONS - Mostly PRPL, PSTH and BFT/BFT.W


https://preview.redd.it/ygrfo9vp0b461.jpg?width=1065&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ccd5cd4846d0cdcd6f1ed0e7a37548399a5cf461
https://preview.redd.it/fd3o99vp0b461.jpg?width=1072&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=96faf02b077fc060c6025bbf7976b54edc6db493


The Customers and MOAT

  • Deep Customer Base with deep ties to gambling/betting industry with Deep penetration in Europe and growing customer bases around the world. Gambling is a tricky business and regulated differently than other industries. Many big players have avoided the industry and Paysafe has a great reputation and has become one of the early movers in the industry. The following are some notable customers.
https://preview.redd.it/0bhbpnvr0b461.jpg?width=473&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=57ec71dfedd8c6eb1d604282021340fbd8d39025
https://preview.redd.it/cno03rvr0b461.jpg?width=285&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4281b8e0db4783b7b4b6cce74f62f0694bdbb008

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I actually know Paysafe and the usage quite well.
PayPal has many restrictions in Europe regarding iGaming , so does Square.
This is a big play on iGaming for those that aren’t aware.
I was a mid- high stakes online poker player through the 2010-2018. Played a variety of sites. : iPoker; PokerStars, Paddy, MicroGaming, 888, Party. Why so many sites? Because I was always on lookout for where the action was, if a big whale sat down at one online casino; you bet your sweet ass I’m there.
So let me give you my take as a consumer that’s probably spent over $100,000 in transaction fees personally on Paysafe.
This was one of the cheapest and fastest ways to move money around online.
Unlike Stripe this which is against risky business such as CBD and gambling, paysafe is actually one of the leading payment providers in both UK/AUS / Ireland for iGaming.
Big example is William Hill, Bet365, Bwin.
Now why would you want to move money online around as a gambler ?
Well, Visa/MC charge close to 50%->75% more, online casinos = the merchant. They don’t wanna pay that, and in fact put limits on this type of payment processor. (Your visa’s credit cards etc). If a punter deposits / withdraws frequently, the online casino could literally be on the hook for like 20-30% of the turnover throughout the gambler’s period. (This assumes the gambler doesn’t lose all his money per deposit.
Imagine you’re a professional sportsbettor, you’re not loyal to one site. Different spreads / odds are offered on every site, you want to be able to move your money from one to another quickly and cheaply. Arbitrage opportunities do exist in sports betting as bookmakers hedge their books to minimize risk, diff frequencies of bets occur on each sports book; you get the idea.
For recreational punters, it’s simple: some sporting events that are smaller simply don’t exist on one site that exist on another. Eg. Perhaps you using Pinnacle / 10dimes for low spreads on high volume events, but perhaps you want to gamble on live events on bet365 on another day, and bet ponies on Hill.
What if you only have $5000 ? Giant pain in ass to deposit money to each site, paysafe lets you move it around easily.
Should you use visa, you may get blocked from depositing on various sites; Bodog, WHill, Bet365 just to name a few. Withdrawals and clearing deposits with bank transfers or checks takes days-> weeks and gamblers ain’t gonna wait for that shit.
You can also buy prepaid paysafe cards from stores if you don’t wish to use your real credit card; and load that shit up.
One of the biggest markets this is prominent in is South east Asia, they are some of the biggest punters and fucking loving gambling. Looking at you pinoys, Indonesians, Malays. Not everyone wants to fly to Macau to get their rocks off.
As much as this is a play on FinTech, please understand this company has more or less the best Payment service on online gambling globally.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Comparable VALUATIONS

From this chart you can see that there looks to be some favorable multiples that could improve once a deal closes. Also, I'm very bullish on the great Margins as well as the conservative growth. I think Foley along with the growing Igaming undervalues the potential of this company. Just the Draft Kings relationship make me tingle.

CHART is COURTESY of u/CoachCedricZebaze
https://preview.redd.it/aozxwuft0b461.jpg?width=722&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e40cbc4538ff3bef87a31050dca316ecae996a9b

Management and Growth

  • Bill Effing Foley - I have a thing for guys name Bill and this guy get my nips hard.
    • This guy has turned shit into gold. See his previous ventures before and after....

https://preview.redd.it/dp6oe2ew0b461.jpg?width=386&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5e6f137c95fec971568dfa5bc07d0290997c753d
https://preview.redd.it/mhl9b7ew0b461.jpg?width=326&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f57ec2eb7c7c318323373af10c8bb12b03e9082e
  • Bill has connections and a strategy to dominate Igaming.
  • Igaming addressable Market is expected to grow immensely from a few billion to tens of billions.
https://preview.redd.it/qfacblzz0b461.jpg?width=241&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dbcdace95286ffccf613daa79b93554ca3e5728b

This is an end to end payment processor with big big big name relationships for very disruptive companies that have huge addressable markets. The reason I am excited is because IGAMING is just really starting to take off and Paysafe is a first mover with brand new experienced management and very very fair valuations that could pop after a merger.
TL;DR- BUY BFT stock and BFT.W because BFT stands for big freaking tenderloins.
submitted by dhsmatt2 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

26 Capital Corp (ADERU) is a new at-NAV SPAC with world-leading online gambling expertise - worth a bet

EDIT - one week after i posted this, Britain's most successful hedge fund manager Michael Platt has taken a 6.5% stake
tl;dr
At-NAV new SPAC with world-leading expertise in online gambling. Worth a bet on potential to be next DKNG on the hype train
   
+++++++
Hi all - have had a lot of great tips from this sub. Hopefully this pays some of you back. I have been watching and researching this since 23 December when it first filed S1, awaiting the units to be listed - they are available today trading as ADERU
Positions - 500 units @ 10.42 to start. Will be monitoring and building position below $15, especially if attention starts to build ahead of units and warrants splitting and shares coming available to Robinhood.
(My other SPAC positions are OPEN, IPO-E-F, PSTH, FUSE, PIPP, ACTC, CCIV and DMYD, 100 to 1000 shares each mostly around NAV and numerous warrants and options around these.)
As ever, this is not investment advice and do your own research
+++++++
   
26 Capital Acquisition Corp or ADER
is a 240m SPAC with usual terms - 10$ units, 1/2 warrants. Seeking a merger in "gaming and gaming technology, branded consumer, lodging and entertainment, and Internet commerce sectors".
I think this is highly worth a play on the online gambling hype if you can get in at near NAV, based entirely on the management which is unbeatable in its knowledge of the gambling industry
   
CEO Jason Ader
has held director level positions at Las Vegas Sands Corp. ($42bn one of biggest casino groups in world), IGT (£3.72bn multinational gambling firm specialised in software and slot machines) and Playtech (£1.4bn multinational gambling software firm)
Before starting his own fund in 2013 he was regularly ranked Wall Street's top analyst on the gambling and leisure sector
His fund, Spring Owl Capital, is a small activist fund focused on gambling and leisure. They are probably most famous for ousting the CEO of Viacom in 2016 and a crusade against Yahoo CEO Marissa Meyer in 2015.
Ader knows the gambling - and online gambling - industry inside out. He drove bWin to a £1.1bn takeover by gambling giant GVC (now Entain) in 2016, and has been driving similar change and demands for improvement at board level at Playtech
The fund mostly manages money for a select group of wealthy families, which could be a positive sign for the SPAC (although I don't know how much skin in the SPAC the fund has, if any)
Here is a video of Ader from November talking about how he's excited about SPACs. He talks about how he has been advising certain States about legalising sports betting and how to maximise value and liquidity by linking up with European companies in the space (Playtech e.g.??).
Ader is extremely bullish on US legalising online casino and more sports betting options, accelerated by need for revenue because of pandemic
   
Rafi Ashkenazi
One of the most highly respected names in the online gambling world, including COO and CEO positions at major online gambling firms such as Playtech and Stars Group (a world leader in online poker and casino). At Stars he led the $4.7bn takeover of Sky Betting to create the world's largest publicly listed online betting firm in 2018. Most recently he led the £10bn merger between Flutter (biggest gambling company in world by revenue, market cap £26bn), and Stars Group (Ader also involved). Also has connections into the booming Israel tech space which is interesting
   
Joseph Kaminkow
Special Advisor to the Chief Product Officer at Aristocrat, a leading gambling software provider and games publisher, previously Vice President of Game Design at Zynga Inc. This guy is a former video game / pinball designer who is credited with revolutionising the slots industry after moving into gambling software from video games in 1999. Regarded as a "legend" and "hall of famer" in this niche. At Zynga he designed so-called 'social casino games' which don't involve real-money gambling but are otherwise basically gambling apps (revenue from microtransactions etc). 130 patents on gambling/gaming design inventions
   
Greg Lyss
This is a very interesting but extremely low profile person. He was Bill Ackman a.k.a SPACman's right hand man at Gotham Capital. Ackman respected him so much that when Ackman set up a personal hedge fund to invest the Ackman family's money, he put Lyss in charge of it. To repeat - Bill Ackman thinks this guy is such a good investor and trustworthy that he put him in charge of investing his family's money. Don't know anything more about him, but I like this association with Ackman, which suggests to me some integrity around management of this SPAC, especially as the gambling world can be very murky.
The other member of the team is the CFO of SpringOwl with 20+ years' hedge fund experience and not notable (although clearly competent)
   
Thesis / potential targets
Based on the above experience and many public comments by Ader over the past year, I would be very surprised if ADER is not looking to merge with an online gambling technology provider / existing online betting website / social casino app / possibly a supporting technology provider
They are activist inventors, and specifically say in the IPO prospectus that they could look for businesses that can benefit from turnaround or are not being run well. I speculate that their deep knowledge of the European / global online gambling industry means they have a target in mind that they think would benefit from their expertise and US liberalisation of gambling legislation.
   
1) Ader believes the listing of UK-listed gambling companies in US is immediately big in terms of market cap because of the premium on online gambling stocks in US. He has pitched DraftKings to takeover Playtech and called on Playtech to spin off non-core business. This makes me wonder if he would spin off some element of Playtech to list in US to cash in on gambling hype.
This might be Finalto.com / TradeTech which is an online financial platform owned by Playtech. Playtech has been trying to sell this for 200 - 240m since August so it fits. This company provides liquidity and trading to brokerages and runs markets.com a trading site. I wouldn't be that excited although apparently the business has been booming during COVID and there could be a decent pop just on fintech hype.
   
2) This could be a 'picks and shovel' type data/B2B betting software play a la DMYD, or something like e.g. Israel based CRM software Optimove which works with some of biggest online gambling cos and has links to Ashkenazi. This would be interesting but probably not a huge pop
   
3) Possibly - given Ader's links to Sands - an online gambling tie-up with one of the big Vegas casinos who are desperate to get into the online betting space (see MGM's attempt to buy Entain for $8bn last week). Interestingly, Sands' owner Sheldon Adelson, previously a major opponent of online betting, has just died. Ader predicted a few months ago that Sands would be moving in this direction.
“There’s no stopping online gaming,” Ader said [before Adelson's death]. “(Las Vegas Sands’) initiatives to stop online gaming, at this stage, are largely historic. There hasn’t been a lot of spending recently to do that, especially post-pandemic.”
“I think the company will see the value created by DraftKings and FanDuel and Penn (National) Gaming and others. They’re not foolish,” Ader added. source
   
4) Ader is very confident that Macau will legalise online gambling in next year or two. Sands is big in Macau, the biggest gambling market in the world. A SaaS-type product positioned to capitalise on Asian gambling would be MASSIVE - at present however, China's attitude to gambling and local regulations mean this is unlikely
   
5) I also wonder if they might try to take legitimate one of the offshore bookmakers with big customer databases and brand recognition but which have been grey-area/illegal under US gaming legislation. For example, Five Dimes recently announced a settlement with the FBI to attempt to transition into newly legalised US markets. This might have the most hype potential
   
Potential upside
This is entirely a play on management experience and the meme factor / hype around online gambling in the US. I think if they pick a good target - which given their experience and connections seems likely - and get the right publicity and attention from retail investors looking for the next DKNG this could easily 3x and maybe 5-6x if on DKNG-type hype levels.
There is currently little spotlight on this and it is a good time to get in at NAV
   
Potential Downside
submitted by calcio1 to SPACs [link] [comments]

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submitted by GreComfy to u/GreComfy [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts

Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts
Hi guys,
I have been using reddit for years in my personal life (not trading!) and wanted to give something back in an area where i am an expert.
I worked at an investment bank for seven years and joined them as a graduate FX trader so have lots of professional experience, by which i mean I was trained and paid by a big institution to trade on their behalf. This is very different to being a full-time home trader, although that is not to discredit those guys, who can accumulate a good amount of experience/wisdom through self learning.
When I get time I'm going to write a mid-length posts on each topic for you guys along the lines of how i was trained. I guess there would be 15-20 topics in total so about 50-60 posts. Feel free to comment or ask questions.
The first topic is Risk Management and we'll cover it in three parts
Part I
  • Why it matters
  • Position sizing
  • Kelly
  • Using stops sensibly
  • Picking a clear level

Why it matters

The first rule of making money through trading is to ensure you do not lose money. Look at any serious hedge fund’s website and they’ll talk about their first priority being “preservation of investor capital.”
You have to keep it before you grow it.
Strangely, if you look at retail trading websites, for every one article on risk management there are probably fifty on trade selection. This is completely the wrong way around.
The great news is that this stuff is pretty simple and process-driven. Anyone can learn and follow best practices.
Seriously, avoiding mistakes is one of the most important things: there's not some holy grail system for finding winning trades, rather a routine and fairly boring set of processes that ensure that you are profitable, despite having plenty of losing trades alongside the winners.

Capital and position sizing

The first thing you have to know is how much capital you are working with. Let’s say you have $100,000 deposited. This is your maximum trading capital. Your trading capital is not the leveraged amount. It is the amount of money you have deposited and can withdraw or lose.
Position sizing is what ensures that a losing streak does not take you out of the market.
A rule of thumb is that one should risk no more than 2% of one’s account balance on an individual trade and no more than 8% of one’s account balance on a specific theme. We’ll look at why that’s a rule of thumb later. For now let’s just accept those numbers and look at examples.
So we have $100,000 in our account. And we wish to buy EURUSD. We should therefore not be risking more than 2% which $2,000.
We look at a technical chart and decide to leave a stop below the monthly low, which is 55 pips below market. We’ll come back to this in a bit. So what should our position size be?
We go to the calculator page, select Position Size and enter our details. There are many such calculators online - just google "Pip calculator".

https://preview.redd.it/y38zb666e5h51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26e4fe569dc5c1f43ce4c746230c49b138691d14
So the appropriate size is a buy position of 363,636 EURUSD. If it reaches our stop level we know we’ll lose precisely $2,000 or 2% of our capital.
You should be using this calculator (or something similar) on every single trade so that you know your risk.
Now imagine that we have similar bets on EURJPY and EURGBP, which have also broken above moving averages. Clearly this EUR-momentum is a theme. If it works all three bets are likely to pay off. But if it goes wrong we are likely to lose on all three at once. We are going to look at this concept of correlation in more detail later.
The total amount of risk in our portfolio - if all of the trades on this EUR-momentum theme were to hit their stops - should not exceed $8,000 or 8% of total capital. This allows us to go big on themes we like without going bust when the theme does not work.
As we’ll see later, many traders only win on 40-60% of trades. So you have to accept losing trades will be common and ensure you size trades so they cannot ruin you.
Similarly, like poker players, we should risk more on trades we feel confident about and less on trades that seem less compelling. However, this should always be subject to overall position sizing constraints.
For example before you put on each trade you might rate the strength of your conviction in the trade and allocate a position size accordingly:

https://preview.redd.it/q2ea6rgae5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=4332cb8d0bbbc3d8db972c1f28e8189105393e5b
To keep yourself disciplined you should try to ensure that no more than one in twenty trades are graded exceptional and allocated 5% of account balance risk. It really should be a rare moment when all the stars align for you.
Notice that the nice thing about dealing in percentages is that it scales. Say you start out with $100,000 but end the year up 50% at $150,000. Now a 1% bet will risk $1,500 rather than $1,000. That makes sense as your capital has grown.
It is extremely common for retail accounts to blow-up by making only 4-5 losing trades because they are leveraged at 50:1 and have taken on far too large a position, relative to their account balance.
Consider that GBPUSD tends to move 1% each day. If you have an account balance of $10k then it would be crazy to take a position of $500k (50:1 leveraged). A 1% move on $500k is $5k.
Two perfectly regular down days in a row — or a single day’s move of 2% — and you will receive a margin call from the broker, have the account closed out, and have lost all your money.
Do not let this happen to you. Use position sizing discipline to protect yourself.

Kelly Criterion

If you’re wondering - why “about 2%” per trade? - that’s a fair question. Why not 0.5% or 10% or any other number?
The Kelly Criterion is a formula that was adapted for use in casinos. If you know the odds of winning and the expected pay-off, it tells you how much you should bet in each round.
This is harder than it sounds. Let’s say you could bet on a weighted coin flip, where it lands on heads 60% of the time and tails 40% of the time. The payout is $2 per $1 bet.
Well, absolutely you should bet. The odds are in your favour. But if you have, say, $100 it is less obvious how much you should bet to avoid ruin.
Say you bet $50, the odds that it could land on tails twice in a row are 16%. You could easily be out after the first two flips.
Equally, betting $1 is not going to maximise your advantage. The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that produces the long-run optimal bet size, given the odds.
Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this:
Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio
If you have recorded hundreds of trades in your journal - see next chapter - you can calculate what this outputs for you specifically.
If you don't have hundreds of trades then let’s assume some realistic defaults of Winning trade % being 30% and Risk-reward ratio being 3. The 3 implies your TP is 3x the distance of your stop from entry e.g. 300 pips take profit and 100 pips stop loss.
So that’s 0.3 - (1 - 0.3) / 3 = 6.6%.
Hold on a second. 6.6% of your account probably feels like a LOT to risk per trade.This is the main observation people have on Kelly: whilst it may optimise the long-run results it doesn’t take into account the pain of drawdowns. It is better thought of as the rational maximum limit. You needn’t go right up to the limit!
With a 30% winning trade ratio, the odds of you losing on four trades in a row is nearly one in four. That would result in a drawdown of nearly a quarter of your starting account balance. Could you really stomach that and put on the fifth trade, cool as ice? Most of us could not.
Accordingly people tend to reduce the bet size. For example, let’s say you know you would feel emotionally affected by losing 25% of your account.
Well, the simplest way is to divide the Kelly output by four. You have effectively hidden 75% of your account balance from Kelly and it is now optimised to avoid a total wipeout of just the 25% it can see.
This gives 6.6% / 4 = 1.65%. Of course different trading approaches and different risk appetites will provide different optimal bet sizes but as a rule of thumb something between 1-2% is appropriate for the style and risk appetite of most retail traders.
Incidentally be very wary of systems or traders who claim high winning trade % like 80%. Invariably these don’t pass a basic sense-check:
  • How many live trades have you done? Often they’ll have done only a handful of real trades and the rest are simulated backtests, which are overfitted. The model will soon die.
  • What is your risk-reward ratio on each trade? If you have a take profit $3 away and a stop loss $100 away, of course most trades will be winners. You will not be making money, however! In general most traders should trade smaller position sizes and less frequently than they do. If you are going to bias one way or the other, far better to start off too small.

How to use stop losses sensibly

Stop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management. No serious discretionary trader can operate without them.
A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter.
The valid concern with stop losses is that disreputable brokers look for a concentration of stops and then, when the market is close, whipsaw the price through the stop levels so that the clients ‘stop out’ and sell to the broker at a low rate before the market naturally comes back higher. This is referred to as ‘stop hunting’.
This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK.
Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty.
You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss. This is a well known behavioural bias that we’ll explore in a later chapter.
Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders.
A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not.
Bruce Kovner, founder of the hedge fund Caxton Associates
There is an old saying amongst bank traders which is “losers average losers”.
It is tempting, having bought EURUSD and seeing it go lower, to buy more. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower. If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right? Wrong.
Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. A level where you know the reason for the trade was proved ‘wrong’ ... and stick to it strictly. If you trade using discretion, use stops.

Picking a clear level

Where you leave your stop loss is key.
Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows. For example if EURUSD is trading at 1.1250 and the recent month’s low is 1.1205 then leaving it just below at 1.1200 seems sensible.

If you were going long, just below the double bottom support zone seems like a sensible area to leave a stop
You want to give it a bit of breathing room as we know support zones often get challenged before the price rallies. This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. You won’t be the only one selling around 1.1200.
The “weak hands” who leave their sell stop order at exactly the level are likely to get taken out as the market tests the support. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up.
Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Here’s a candlestick chart (one candle is one day) for GBPUSD.

https://preview.redd.it/moyngdy4f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=91af88da00dd3a09e202880d8029b0ddf04fb802
If you are putting on a trend-following trade you expect to hold for weeks then you need to have a stop loss that can withstand the daily noise. Look at the downtrend on the chart. There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend.
So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level.
There are several tools you can use to help you estimate what is a safe distance and we’ll look at those in the next section.
There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high.

https://preview.redd.it/ygy0tko7f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=34af49da61c911befdc0db26af66f6c313556c81
Clearly then where you set stops will depend on your trading style as well as your holding horizons and the volatility of each instrument.
Here are some guidelines that can help:
  1. Use technical analysis to pick important levels (support, resistance, previous high/lows, moving averages etc.) as these provide clear exit and entry points on a trade.
  2. Ensure that the stop gives your trade enough room to breathe and reflects your timeframe and typical volatility of each pair. See next section.
  3. Always pick your stop level first. Then use a calculator to determine the appropriate lot size for the position, based on the % of your account balance you wish to risk on the trade.
So far we have talked about price-based stops. There is another sort which is more of a fundamental stop, used alongside - not instead of - price stops. If either breaks you’re out.
For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out. For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position. You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market.

Coming up in part II

EDIT: part II here
Letting stops breathe
When to change a stop
Entering and exiting winning positions
Risk:reward ratios
Risk-adjusted returns

Coming up in part III

Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

personal finance and pensions as a disabled professional poker player

I am a professional poker player in my 20s living in the UK. I have moderate Chronic Fatigue Syndrome aka CFS.
I want to make sure that I am making good decisions regarding personal finance. There are a few unusual aspects of my work / life that mean a lot of the normal financial planning advice is not relevant, so I would appreciate people looking over this to check I am running this sensibly.
First, there are a few aspects of poker that I should mention:
1) income will vary wildly from year to year, more so than almost any other job. It is very likely I make between 25k and 75k in 2021. However it is also possible I barely breakeven, or that I win a big tournament for 6 or even 7 figures (this is extremely unlikely but definitely possible).
2) Poker income is tax free. I do not pay national insurance or any kind of tax on poker winnings (This is a century old HMRC rule).
3) I need to maintain a large float of liquid or semi liquid cash due to the swings of poker. I need to ensure that even if I lose money for a period I still can afford to play poker and cover living expenses. I also have money tied up in tournament tickets that take months or even years to realise the value of.
4) I play live and online poker, lifetime earnings from live and online are fairly similar.
Regarding my CFS:
1) I am not well enough to work a 9-5 job with a commute and likely will never be well enough to do that.
2) I am well enough to work a 9-5 job from home on good weeks, but have periods when I am ill and not able to work.
3) I have been rejected for disability benefits when I was more ill than I am now. People with CFS find it notoriously difficult to get claim any kind of disability benefits. I am not currently pursuing this.
4) I am not considered to be working by HMRC so I am not paying NI. IDK what impact this will have on my pension. I am extremely reluctant to pay voluntary contributions as it means locking up the value for 40+ years and I have no idea what pension changes will occur in my lifetime.
5) I am not mentally disabled, I have an invisible physical disability. Nobody I run into in live poker has any idea I am seriously disabled apart from a handful of close friends I disclosed it to.
Current plan:
1) My current pension plan is to invest as much as I can each year into stocks and shares ISAs, (LISAs and regular ISAs). I am investing exclusively in equity index tracker funds with the lowest fees I can find on Vanguard and AJ Bell. I am heavily weighted towards emerging market funds. I am fairly risk tolerant, if the investment drops 20% in a year then thats whatever, I am holding for the long term.
2) Because poker income is tax free, I could work part time at a 'real' job and the first £12500 would fall under the tax free allowance. I am yet to do this but it is definitely a bonus if I do work part time in the future. I think there might be some other ways I can take advantage of the fact that I am technically earning zero income, but nothing comes to mind. Any ideas?
3) I am assuming that I will get little to nothing from the government regarding disability help and pensions and I should just look after myself as far as I can.
4) It is possible that online poker kinda dies (or I just fall behind the curve) in my lifetime to the point that I can no longer beat it for a sufficient hourly to make it worthwhile. I assume I will play more live poker when this happens, as far as my disability permits.
5) I am hoping that due to cultural changes following corona that working from home becomes more widely accepted and if I wanted to I could pursue this in the future. Annoyingly I became ill during my degree and did not graduate (I was on track for a 2.1 from LSE) but I might be able to leverage poker experience somehow, especially in similar jobs in finance and gambling.
Apologies for the rambling, I realise this is a lengthy post.
Does this all make sense?
Is there anything else I should be working on?
submitted by GiantMarshmallows to UKPersonalFinance [link] [comments]

Book of Doom - “Living the Dream”

The Book of Doom
Living the Dream
Intro
Story of a time traveller trapped in a world where everything is backwards.
I’ve possibly never had an original thought. Everything is already written. I’m just discovering. I’ve lived my life and been manipulated left right and centre.
I love everyone.
I think I’ve rarely been conscious. My friends say i day dream more than participate in thought.
I think I’ve mastered life though & people in power know & are following me.
My whole life is a lie.
The whole world is a stage.
From genocide, world war & Jesus.
I’ve lived life just letting life take me.
It feels real but none of it feels like my own.
I’m writing this in a mental hospital for my own sanity maybe this will help you if you have gone through an awakening
The population to resources is a shambles but with technology and everyone working together we could turn the world green :)
They’re going to implement change through a world war where we will have no choice but to work together.
I’ve pretty much lived life for my mother and father, followed them all my life. My next job could be at the Chatsworth house. Working for the Duke of Devonshire.
I was stressed working with my mum, she ran a catering business and my Gran has moved to Greece. Alls I did from 15-17 was play video games. Outdoors had got violent and territorial. Xbox multiplayer came out and the introverts stayed in.
I played a pc game called Visual Utopia. It was an mopg, 2D map with around 200 players. A turn based strategy game, like hunger games, chess, fort nite, RISK & C&C all in one. You landed with 50 soldiers in a unit & had to find a place to settle, find friends & create a kingdom to survive. I hated it and loved it at the same time.
At 17 I moved to Greece with intensions of staying or coming back after a summer like I did. I convinced Gay to come with me before hand, I went but he couldn’t because of his dad. He came over a month later though. Damon was on holiday there with lads from work, he’d already booked before the idea and said he’d stay when I came over. Damon stayed two months and Gay stayed 1 month. Gav came back and got a job in Livingstones. I came back five months later and my neighbour got me a job in Bar Centro working for Noah the next week. I said to my mum, give me a year I’ll be manager. I was supervisor trainee manager after six months, after a year, Noah offered me managers job and a shit salary so I turned it down. He took me on holiday, now I black out when I’m drunk and I remember nothing of the holiday but I have a memory of him threatening to kill me if the truth gets out.
I’ve spent many family holidays with my mum in Greece. Me & mum loved to travel. She also took me to Paris twice, which a fell in love with but I was most fascinated by Greece, their history & architecture. From what I heard, Greek Mafia had their hands in bit coin & some of the common folk had ancestors from Zimbabwe which when I asked them about they was shady and avoided the question, as if they we’re wondering how I knew.
Here my life pretty much begins. My parents split at the age of seven. My mum and dad worked in bars, Bradbury Club, which has been torn down now. My dad was all round handy man pretty much managing the place, my mum worked the bars.
The split was rough. Me and dad moved to a flat in Grangewood then to Brimington where my Nan lived. My dads mum.
Chapter One - Age Seven
Chapter Two - Age Eight to Fourteen
Chapter Three - Age Fifteen to Sixteen.
Chapter Four - Age Seventeen
Chapter Five - Age Eighteen to Nineteen
Chapter Six - Age Twenty
Chapter Seven - Age Twenty One
Chapter Eight - Age Twenty Two to Twenty three
Theory of everything contents
The more wisdom and philosophy we attain the more heavenly life is
Wisdom is the truth known consciously
Truth is what has consistent value
We are all connected
We are the centre of the universe
We are an accumulation of our ancestors
Consciousness is the manifestation of interactions
We are a sum total of our experiences
Free will is a form of self control
Frustration is the door to perception
Hell is the burning desire for this moment to be different. Heaven is the present moment
Gratitude is the state of mastership
Everything is a phase
Good is to do love onto another; out of love for yourself, to make one love oneself. Evil is to inflict suffering on to another; out of hate for yourself, to make one hate oneself
We attract what we fear, we become what we hate
Unconditional love does not mean unconditional behaviour
Karma is when you don’t learn your lesson the same situation repeats until you accept your mistakes & make the changes.
The universe; inner and outer, is a spiral, what goes around comes back around
Change your mind, change the world around you
Our purpose is to express ourselves in order to understand ourselves and the universe
Alls life is is a story going back in time to understand creation
We are time travellers
Knowledge is power
My dad was an all round handy man. He was a carpenter in his spare time to earn us extra cash. We loved building things together or, I loved copying him.
I met Tricky, Gay & Alan at Brimington Junior School. Me and Tricky lived on the same street. We became friends when two girls stole his shoe and I just happened to be there. We became very good friends. We loved playing with action figures & watching Dragon Ball Z. Tricky was a bit mardy, hated playing outdoors and hated PC but I loved playing Age of Empires at his. With Gay & Alan, we loved to play outdoors & have tea at each other’s houses, throughout life we have loved building things together. I joined cubs with Tricky & I went to karate with Tricky.
I also gained three step brothers from my mums side. Daniel, Mathew & Liam. My brothers always stuck up for me and I looked up to Daniel, he was awesome :) we all loved building things together, playing blind mans bluff & man hunt. We also played for our local Rugby team & was learning to box at the local boxing club. Me and Liam played in the same team at rugby, under 11’s because I was small enough to be a back and get away with it even though I was 13 :) Me and Mathew was too big for me at boxing and Liam was too small for me so I never really got a fair fight. Mathew also joined the choir at the Crooked Spire :)
My Gran was amazing to me. Now let’s get to her. :) She was a very faithful woman, adored by the church and had great piano skills. She was well respected and played piano for the church. She used to get tons of Christmas cards. I loved learning to play piano with her, well, a little. :) she used to always play classical music and we’d drink orange juice and elderflower which is still a favourite, thanks Nan :) We could never say the Lords name in vein, my dad and her friend are the one’s that got me and Tricky into cubs :)
A rough part of my life in general this was. It was rough on the streets, fighting and territorial gangs of kids. I had baby sitters from a young age. Even before the break up. After the break up. I had mark bottoms who came from my street. He was still a kid really. Probably only 15. He used to bully me and beat me up. I blocked out most of my memory but I remember being trapped under a table being hit with poles. After one night another one of the baby sitters kicked him out, I called him a ginger twat down the street then he chased me to the shops and tripped me over. Fun :)
In Boythorpe I wasn’t having much more luck at my mums either. We was just being kids, taunting shop keepers when one dragged me into the shop. They then grabbed an arm each and started beating me, lovely stuff :) The shop keepers fled the country.
So I had a rough family break up that resulted in police tearing us apart and I was being beaten left right and centre :)
By age thirteen I’d made lots of new friends and felt more comfortable. School was fun, the work was not. I’d took up ju jitsu as a hobby, I was a natural and stuck at it two years. :) I remember learning to draw in perspective, 3D in the younger years, creating a tin can alley to raise money for charity and having the dinner lady steal the earnings, lovely stuff. :) We’d play army with our imagination, we’d play pokemon cards & bulldog, the usual stuff kids we’re playing :)
I met a bunch of other more friends along the way, Ryan Turner, Luke Spyra, Damon Shaw, Daniel Stirling, Daniel Wood etc... I met Luke Spyra on the parks through Ryan Turner I met in school through girls we used to associate with. I fancied the girl that fancied Turner so I clung to Turner to learn everything I could from him. He’s still a close friend now. I met Stirling & Woody through school. I met Damon on the streets. He came from Manchester and his uncle was once the head of defence :)
I don’t remember doing any work during school because I basically didn’t do it. :) I was very lazy & unimaginative when it came to writing, I could never produce more than three lines worth of writing. I wasn’t made for school. I remember playing something maybe called the game of life where we all had to pretend to be adults and work out our expenses, what we could afford and couldn’t afford, that was fun :) I remember in nursery my favourite thing to do was build with the blocks & I built a small bird house out of wood for my nursery teacher when I left because me loved her :) 13-15 was the good life after that where we just played and paid no attention to school. I spent most of my time day dreaming not bothering other kids so I got away with doing nothing :) At 15 I said I’d get 3 GCSE’s just incase and I got myself. Maths, Science & Electronics. I had a passion for business :)
Around this age, we moved twice and my dad had met Jean, we spent some time on Somerset drive where we’d play football, be more building & fighting. Jean was wonderful to us, she studied at university, loved classical music and would help me out with my english gcse :) we loved camping holidays. Unfortunately Jean died of cancer, along side my dad’s best friend who was like an uncle to us and joined us on holidays. My Dad’s life wasn’t getting much better :(
If I wasn’t at school I was at work :) I got my first wage packet at about 9 years or younger, cleaning with my aunt for £2.50. I used to work paper rounds with my brother at eleven and at 13 I had my own paper round. At 15 I was skipping school to labour for my step father plastering :)
I learned for a while and owned a drum kit & a electric Guitar at this time. We’d also all love playing Warhammer & getting eight players linked up to two Xbox’s in my shed & having BBQ’s in the summers
I was accident prone too, by this time I had broken my arm three times & my fingers once. One time at band camp my arm actually snapped in half, I stood up and immediently snapped it back in to place after my older brother threw my over his shoulders :) Proud moment. Aha
At fifteen we we’re pressured into making life choices, internet is becoming more popular. Streets are getting rougher and Xbox bought an online console out with Halo. Things got weird. We all started playing VU. I was mardy because Xbox had taken everyone indoors. But at-least I had VU. It had took a grasp on me and I became addicted. I played along side Turner, Gav, Adam, Damon, Straw, Stirlin & Woody. This was a rare time the game got a good flow of players.
I felt like there was a strange secret kept from me. I remember at one point in my life not being able to know something because I’m ginger as a joke. I linked it to VU lol.
Everyone but me and stirlin stopped playing, Stirlin was the founder. I became obsessed. I thought it was the most simple intelligent fun game there was on offer & I still do aha.
There was a kingdom called Legacy, pretty much like our illuminati of the world, all the veterans together undefeated. Well, I was determined to defeat them aha :) I set out on my own on a lower world to them where the noobs roam, Mantrax. I found two other players and created a kingdom called Trio, The Three Musketeers. All for one, one for all was our motto :) we became legendary in three era’s on the lower world. I had gathered about 20 noobs and was leading them all, teaching them how to play at the same time. We dominated every Era. On the fourth Era we went to the top world, Fantasia, where LGC roam and we defeated them :) Each era, Armageddon is cast by the winning kingdom and we all reincarnate again.
I wrote guides on this game. I was bar shit passionate about it, I felt like I was mastering life and Visual Utopia at the same time. I’ve met from the game probably around 200 people from all around the world and been trolled by nearly all of them :D I never felt respected by LGC but I felt respected and loved by other players. They mostly loved me :)
This game took over my life and I became depressed though between 15 & 17 whilst playing I was also working.
At Fifteen I started working for a company with my mum, it was silver service, waiting on for the three masons, on a steam train & weddings at Eyam Hall where the Black Plague started.
I was also working with my step dad plastering. I was working with Daniel Straw’s step dad landscaping & mechanics. I was left to change a gear box by myself lol. I did some bricklaying with Scott, my mum’s neighbour and with Damon Shaw’s Uncle Chris a couple of times.
I was also at College part time as well as school doing a bricklaying & painting & decorating City & Guilds
By 17 came I was out of work & stuck in just college not satisfied with my earnings or the fact I failed my driving test five times so, I moved to Greece :)
At seventeen Greece was the time of my life. Bars. Booze. Boobs. Beach parties & work :) I started at a bowling alley for a Greek Australian friend of my Nans with Damon. We had accommodation right on the beach next door to Mac Donald’s. Atleast 15 units of alcohol a night for 5 months :)
It was legendary. Gav came and by then we’d been kicked out of our first apartment and had an upgrade. It had a separate kitchen and bathroom with two massive bedrooms each. When Damon and Gav left, I had one of these to myself :)
I started smoking weed with my new manager and became supervisor of a night club and hosted poker nights in my kitchen after work.
I still believe Faliraki was the best place for British workers because of the community we all had. I spent the first two weeks with my Nan by myself, once Damon arrived it was all go :)
We lived off Mac Donald’s, Subway, chips & cheese or a Gyros, one meal a day aha We spent our days adventuring the island, sun bathing and go karting :)
I got back just before my eighteenth birthday. I caught up with everyone and the drinking continue’d :) Gav loved vodka and so did Straw. I got a job in Bar Centro and Gav got a job in Livingstones. I remember we would down half a bottle of vodka each before we went out. I never drank around town until my eighteenth birthday. It was drinking at parks, houses and the streets from fifteen up until now but I could get away with drinking in Brimington pubs before I was legal :)
I continue’d playing vu throughout this and we had now all started using Skype :)
I loved my job at Bar Centro. I was getting paid for a social life. Sunday BBQ’s became a thing. Unfortunately Noah was married and sleeping with a girl that had friend zoned me, even told me she wants someone like me but not me. I learnt about the affair and this caused problems at work in the end. I was close to Laura, I never let it effect work until about twelve months in. I was taken on holiday to a fake maga reunion, at one point they was posing as night club owners to Ultra Beat and introducing me as manager as if we had a club big enough lol. I remember very little of the holiday, it’s all a blur but I remember being by a pool at one point. They sent me home at night once so they could have fun with women. I remember Nick telling me in the car if his wife found out I’m dead and he doesn’t care who my dad’s are.
A few more months of working and I’m offered salary and managers job. I was expected to work 50 hours a week, clean, manage the cellar & bar for 200 a week plus ten cash. I turned it down and I didn’t leave quick enough so they put a ban on phones then drew lines around my phone to see if I move and when I moved it they sacked me or I walked out there and then.
Lauren Whittaker joined in mid game and was sleeping with me and Nick.
I quickly got myself a job at escapade where I met Joe Mosley, Kirk Bytheway & Daniel Drew who became friends for years. I had a short fling with Hannah sellars I knew from Daniel Straws sister. Town had an awesome gang of workers, we was a little community, we often merged up with other bar workers for parties at each other’s houses. Summer peaked I became less interested in work, more interested in women & having sex. I got sacked at escapade for not taking the job seriously and spending more time dancing than working before my trial ended. I had also picked up another job at Vesuvius, a factory. So I didn’t care.
I got another job in brand new bar in town. I was also offered a job to run the bar and take a % with Gary Gee. I turned it down because Gary Gee was very Un organised and I’d have had to do all the work to turn the bar around. It was a failure. He framed me for stealing a tenner then sacked me lol.
I’m 19-20 now and round about this I met Leanne Moore :)
Leanne knew Beck who was the sister of a girl I worked worked with. I was sleeping with Beck for a month before Leanne attached herself to me, we had sex in the night clubs, neither of them we’re happy when they found out I was sleeping with them both. I saw this as a way out and a start at a fresh life. I dropped Beck for Leanne and she became my everything. I was hopelessly in love. We lasted twelve to eighteen months on and off planning life and she wanted out in the end, I spent most of my time telling her to wake up and getting stressed at all the pressure she was putting on me.
I was made redundant at Vesuvius a few months in & I started working at Dominoes as a delivery driver with Luke Spyra as manager. Leanne has been going to university at Hull and I have been spending my time working full time and partying with Leanne in Hull. We loved each other too much to be apart, we went together like two peas in a pod, we was both dreamers and hard workers, very passionate people and we both clashed and argue’d a lot.
Her dad worked at Royal Mail and we decided it would be a good idea for me to get a job there. Me and her dad we’re pretty similar, both computer geeks & fiercely competitive. They used to call me stupid together and taunt me, her mum would stick up for me. They made me feel like family and bullied me at the same time
So I applied at Royal Mail a few times & got a job at Chesterfield, the head office of Royal Mail. I knew privatisation was coming and I was warned it was the worst office in the UK. I knew although we had broke up in the end I had made it, I had a job for life, I had unlimited possibility.
Leanne was inspiring though, she had come back from university and made a promotion in two jobs before we split
Leanne wanted to rush things, get married and have babies, I wanted to take my time and she couldn’t trust me, we was looking at houses to buy and I was walking a tightrope for her trying to keep her happy. I had to get a back bone and stopped having sex her at times, she gave me a black eye at one point and we just kept falling apart.
Gavin in the mean time had setup a business called Bespoke Bartenders with Rick. I was working and partying with them. I was working 50 + hours a week. I couldn’t keep my managers at work happy and my girl happy. I cheated. We ended. My managers told me to get out more so I went and slept with three girls and realised quickly it wasn’t the answer but my ego was back and I was a now a poser :)
I’m 21 now. :)
Danny Swan came into the picture. He appeared at Gav’s once and we started drinking together. Danny Swan was the most popular in town who hung around with the rich kids & got all the girls. I couldn’t compete with them so I didn’t even try lol. I believed I was stupid and ugly. Always had trouble with women. Had issues with my hair & weight. We started drinking together every weekend, it was fun just dancing, smoking drinking and getting attention from girls.
I’ve always been constantly criticised & called stupid and ugly by friends. My step dad used to say I was gay and point at me saying look at him he’s thinking, he knows what you’re thinking, that stuck with me. Girls used to call me ugly and say it was because I was ginger. Lad mates would all call me stupid and put me down on everything I did, idea I had or what I owned, nothing was ever good enough. I have often been flabbergasted at everyone, noticed people’s insecurities stop them from being themselves. I’ve always felt like everyone expects us to prove something. I hate it.
I was being used by Danny for a good time and my car. I didn’t mind, I just found it strange his need to steal fifty p from me once. Danny rarely had a job and always wanted to go out. We started smoking weed. I was paying for most things but I didn’t mind because I was in with the popular kids.
Danny introduces me to Mat Wood, Dan Malloy & Tom Smith. May wood was a tattoo artist. Dan was the leader singer of a band & Tom had just slept with everyone in town. I knew about them all previously from Laura Dawes. They all loved making fun of me and wanted me around all the time. The single life had began. I slept with three girls and realised this wasn’t the answer. I was looking for something meaningful. I just set to live & have a good time minus the sex. I made lot’s of new friends & reunited with old friends. Life was simple until point. Everyone wanted a piece of me and wanted to know what I was doing. I’d always just yolo’ it. I’d probably met 50 new people in a year.
I was a man in demand. Me and Ricky had caught up again and he always wanted me round his. Ricky and his friends all worked and I had a lot of good to say about them. They looked to Ricky as the what would Ricky do kinda guy.
Tom Smith was depressed and I was a sucker that couldn’t say no so I was also catering to him and hanging around with him to keep him happy
I made time for everyone & everyone started getting weird around me. I started questioning everyone and everyone was calling me stupid.
I had changed & I wanted to find out what was going off.
I’m now 22 and it’s 2012 :)
Danny introduces me to Mat Wood. He was very keen to give me advice and thought I was going through an awakening. He told me to concentrate on my breath. I was very angry at this point. I wanted to know why everyone was being shady around me at the same time I was trying to gain respect from everyone. This drove me made trying to get respect.
I was having trouble at work also. They noticed I had changed. I blamed them for the break up putting pressure on me to work too much. They would punish me every time I said no. I clicked on to their methods and started making them look stupid. The managers didn’t find it funny but all I wanted was respect. One postman said at a Christmas party I was the future of Royal Mail. People knew I knew something.
A year went by with all the stress from work and friends, I’d given up, I just wanted to settle down and find a woman. I was trying to say no to everyone. I wanted control of my life.
I’m 23 now and it’s 2012.
Mat Wood and Jaydee introduce me to zeitgeist. I become obsessed with it and watch it slowly. Watch a piece, meditate on it, concentrated on my breath and let the thoughts flow.
Suddenly bam. I had awoken. I had mastered life. All the dots connected in my life from past present to future. I was petrified I was going to destroy the world and everyone was out to get me for it. I was watching the whole world spiral around me from that point onwards.
I remember when my mind eclipsed I thought I was the last point in time.
This is my theory of everything :)
The secret to philosophy is, it is true if you believe it to be true. Philosophy is like taking the tomato and making tomato sauce. Wisdom is knowing it is a tomato. By these means, philosophy keeps getting closer to the tomato. We make purée then we make slices and eventually we find our tomato, wisdom. Basically all philosophy is bull**** around what could be true. Wisdom is the result of good philosophy, which stands the time until another cycle begins. Philosophy is the love of wisdom.
So for example, we look at a chair and can see it is a chair, wisdom, philosophy, we can see it is nails and wood. :)
Wisdom is the truth known consciously. Wisdom is basically what is with the times; what the crowd can agree upon, what has consistent value. As for philosophy, we wouldn’t pick an in coherent philosophy out of the air but, someone may have an experience that gives them a philosophy that is ahead of the times. It only works if we truly believe it. :)
So basically psychosis = differently sane. :)
Their’s layers to truth but everything is built on truth. Truth can have more than one answer but a limited amount of answers. Meaning it is possible to understand the universe. :)
We are unlimited awareness but what we are materialistically is limited so, in other words. Wisdom is limited. Philosophy is unlimited.
So therefore, a plastic chair cannot be a plastic chair because that’s philosophy, the chair is plastic or a chair.
ID = Our wisdom
Ego = Our philosophy
So, we are our actions.
What we have done in our past is what creates the Angels & Demons that surround us.
Angels & Demons are also manifest by the things done onto us.
So for example we sacrifice people to summon a Demon.
This creates our karma, Karma is when we don’t learn our lesson the same situation repeats until we accept our mistakes & make the changes.
Angels and Demons can be also described as what makes up consciousness. Angels being consciousness. Demons being subconsciousness, so, until we make our demons conscious we will continue to be controlled by them from our subconscious. Preventing us from being ourselves. What we have not made conscious is our shadow.
Angels & Demons are what create our personality We can think of the ego as presence and that be all our demons playing together.
Life is about growth, holding on and letting go. We gain wisdom from angels and demons.
To create a Demon we go experience something and start a ritual*, then we simply let our Demons out to play and let them possess someone else. Talk about them, write poetry, a short story or a lesson we learned. This way they lose their power. The karma is released. * A ritual is taking the long way home around an action to create a better result, we apply method to the madness, and take small steps into creating bigger actions. Like gathering ingredients to empty our minds of all the questions and gain the power to manifest something we want :)
This is us creating the capacity to fulfil our dreams. We take the steps towards our dreams. This is creating more space inside ourself for them to happen. Whilst we are doing this; we are attracting the reality we want, by implementing our intension we create a ripple that spirals back to us. This is how our thoughts create our reality. We’re forcing the universe to conspire in our favour until we master what we are doing and gain the wisdom from the ritual. “I am” is the beginning of all wisdom, what we say after these words is what creates our reality.
We are god, Demons are our imperfections we fear being seen by the crowd, the fears that control us, this is how we attract what we fear, we become what we hate.
Demons will always stay with us, they are out to get us, Angels are their to save us. Demons give us the challenges in life, Angels give us the wisdom to get through them. Demons be like our children, frenemies, we have to give them something to look up to. We can think of Angels as our higher self, the elders.
So, we are the sins of our fathers. In this sense we are an accumulation of our ancestors. Each generation naturally practices self control and has had a sense of good and evil. Meaning, we inherit less & less Demons and we’re acquiring more & more wisdom through generations over time until we enter heaven.
In other words we have to go through hell and defeat all the demons to get to heaven.
There must be an alternate universe running backwards. One where philosophy comes first we are drawing all our energy from, the void must be a wormhole our imagination is trapped in eager to be discovered.
Wisdom = time
Philosophy = space 🙂
Dimensions:
3rd dimension = action, material world
4th dimension = thought, dream world
5th dimension = no thought, spirit world
The universe is a mirror so there would be ten dimensions, because we are in the middle of the middle looking in at the middle
They say life is better understood backwards so, the universe manifest from one point, the 1st dimension but, the universe also manifest from the higher dimensions. The higher dimensions are bigger, so, we go down the middle and we would say the 5th dimension is the centre of the universe. This is where the universe started but, this is not true. This creates dimension zero which is the egg, so, we have the 5th dimension down the middle of the spectrum which is the sperm. The 1st and the tenth, all this this creates you, a little spec, a special creation, a little miracle, a 5D, 3D hologram but, we’re not alone. We was shattered at the start. We mirror again, meaning the universe started with a twin flame in the 6th dimension. Each spec is going across distance is flat, each made of 3 points so, each spec is made up of zero, the fifth and the 3rd. Space, time & matter, creating a 3,6,9 pattern in every direction. This is the 3,6,9 method. This means everything that’s possible that could be manifest, manifest at the start of the universe with unlimited possibility 🙂
This would mean each universe is contracting or expanding. That there is only beginnings. All life is game, the universe is like a Russian doll.
This would mean we are all born at the centre of the universe. We are born with all the wisdom of the universe and life is a journey moving closer or further away from the centre of the universe as we develop, discovering wisdom or not. We are the singularity. This makes us creation & creator. :)
We all have the Ontic Sphere,
“ Deep inside the being of a human life there's a secret connection to powers and forces, the refined and raw energies of the world and the cosmos beyond it, all funneling down and inward to that secret connection and flowing through the entire ontic sphere* of the human being, bringing more reality to the reality than it had before it was fed the true foods of existence, the blending of experiences and the feelings, and from the ontic sphere spreading out to all the world, radiating like a microscopic star the rays and beams of a formative influence, making the human being more than a consumer or a parasite, but a symbiote, a producer even of the transformation flows through the topologies shaping reality everywhere. This is a good purpose for human beings, enriching the very planet and it's planes themselves, and between them, even more special the magick, the sorcery, the craft, the very tales of love and drama, the majestic other dimensions of the being of the human family. Consciousness is more than a trip, it's a vital part of our present cosmos & chaos alike. *An Ontic sphere, to the best of my understanding, is the world which you live interplaying with your psyche and it's organic expressions, creating an almost ultrafractal and transfractal appearance and relevance to life.” - written by Jerry David Rosenberger
So in theory. Each solar system is like a little universe. There are possibly little you’s running around with one leg missing. Our imagination is a portal. All the chaos happening here right now, is all the chaos happening everywhere in the universe. We could be the first to leave the planet and it’s probably already happened. Our realist us would be immortal and complete all challenges in life. All life across the universe shares the 3D 5D realm.
Everything that exists inside the mind has already happened somewhere or is about to happen. Everything is a phase. Everything is a figment of our imagination. Life is but a dream.
We could say we all share the same dream and it’s a dream within a dream. Meaning we all share the same wisdom with unlimited paths of getting there.
This means we are all connected. Meaning we all have attachments, demons. This causes frustration & frustration is the door to perception. We all desire happiness & the more wisdom & philosophy we attain the more heavenly life is. We can take these steps, (Compassion > self control > reason) on the way to attaining wisdom.
We have the question do we have free will? On one side we say everything happens for a reason. On the other side we say everything is random. If we go down the middle we say, self control is a form of free will. Yes, the universe is determined but the more awareness we have the more choice we have. The middle path is useful for philosophy. The middle path may mean going a hard right to balance a weak left.
Gratitude is the state of mastership, so, we rather ask what is this trying to teach me? instead of why me? in moments of frustration. It’s important not to play the victim.
And then there’s the eightfold path.
  1. Right understanding (Samma ditthi)
  2. Right thought (Samma sankappa)
  3. Right speech (Samma vaca)
  4. Right action (Samma kammanta)
  5. Right livelihood (Samma ajiva)
  6. Right effort (Samma vayama)
  7. Right mindfulness (Samma sati)
  8. Right concentration (Samma samadhi)
As you can see consciousness is a manifestation of interactions. Our soul is an accumulation of our ancestors, all our and Angels and Demons. We are one soul, wisdom, philosophy, we are all different souls. We came here with lessons to learn passed down through generations already so, an old soul is wise, every generation is more advanced than the next. Children are the wisest on the planet, children know they know but don’t know what they know until they are older.
So, Alls life is is a story going back in time to understand creation. We are an accumulation of the past, future and present. Souls can come from other planets as well as this as we are time travellers. We all have the ordinance of the entire universe limited by our awareness.
Everything has its place and we want everything in it’s fitting place. Good and evil can be seen as a spectrum. Intentions come into play and even the observer so, there can be a greater good and a lesser evil. When a crowd come together we all get on a level, you get what you give, for some direction I suggest:
To do love onto another is good; out of love for yourself, to make one love oneself. Evil is to inflict suffering on to another; out of hate for yourself, to make one hate oneself.
We have three forces pulling us. We all have god, we are god, wisdom. We all have our demons, our path, our philosophy and we all have our idea of perfection that haunts us.
Everything is spiralling us :)
The 5th dimension is where we are all heading. Where we are all connected at the heart and have empty minds, experiencing things like telepathy.
This would be heaven. This is where we become free spirits. This is where all our wisdom & philosophy comes from. Everthing has a spirit, all matter and thought are a manifestation of spirit.
Archons are what set the limits on our wisdom & philosophy.
The greys are the Devine perfect beings from the future that we will all metamorphosis into. They can shape shift, time travel & take hostage in our mind like a parasite. Everything get’s smaller and closer to perfection. These are what create our negative thoughts the beings preventing us from completing our challenges. They feed off of negative energy; if there’s no imperfection, they can’t exist.
if we don’t pay attention to spirits, spirits lose their power, so, we can kill death. Fear is a virus, the root of all evil.
I assume you know what to do. Our purpose is to express ourselves in order to understand ourselves and the universe. I suggest you be yourself.
This is how habits create the man. :)
We are a result of our life choices.
Knowledge is power.
Bonus:
Ten Commandments
Rule one Trust no one
Rule two Serve a brew
Rule three Dance with me
Rule four Don’t ask for more
Rule five Learn to dive
Rule six No quick fix
Rule seven Love comes second
Rule eight Always be straight
Rule nine Do not wine
Rule ten Master your zen
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