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1st, apologies for being AFK recently. 2nd, thank you to FatAmericanFuck for gathering info into a neat organized comment while I was gone :) Tester has been added, germination complete, added a mini description for cosmic revival, check below.
Added new userflairs :)
DROP IS OVER, CHECKOUT SEEDBANKS BELOW FOR HALLOWEEN LEFTOVERS
STAY CALM AND PLEASE BE PATIENT WITH THIS DROP!
NEW EMAIL FOR CUSTOMER SERVICE, OWLENTINES AT GMAIL DOT COM
DONT FORGET DAZ IS NOW ON THE EAST COAST, NO MORE CENTRAL TIME DROPS.
Valentine's Drop 2/12 at 12:01am Eastern Standard Time
Valentine's Drop
Hey guys, Daz here! I'm sure most of you are aware that things have been delayed with the licensing process at my new spot, resulting in delays in the release of my new photo x auto projects. Well, I hope this makes it up to you! I've dug deep to try and bring a little bit of what everyone has asked for to the table for this Valentine's weekend drop! Collabs with Ronin, Full Duplex/Mandalorian, and a Premium exclusive collab with Binary Selections (Ronin and Magic's line of shared work)!!! I've brought out the last of the Space Station Orange v.1, the last of the Squanch Stomper, the last of the Shekinah, and the last of the Cheech Biggums. I'm introducing a new CBD cross, Cosmic Revival, and releasing the last of the F3 Legacy Regs of both Wizard's Apprentice and Zamadelica Express (*pending current germination testing)... Not only that, every order will receive Seedopoly game pieces, brand new Night Owl plant ID stakes, Night Owl jar and jar lid label stickers, Valentine's day sticker set, and Valentine's day keychain (keychains may run out, all goodies are while supplies last) as well as the usual slaps you know and love! On top of that, if you grab 3 Secret Owl Society packs you'll receive a Secret Owl Society patch. If you order 4 Secret Owl Society packs you will receive the patch and a new glow in the dark Masked Owl ashtray! I'm also working on having the new black on black shirts in time for the drop, but as is life, all of this could change at any given moment. If you made it this far and are still reading, thank you. This drop is the last of my stock, and the next drop will not be until, realistically, July. If you need any Night Owl after this drop please go support the seedbanks that support me, and also show some love to the other auto breeders that are doing real work. I appreciate the continued love and cannot wait to continue on this journey with you.
Every order will come with Valentine's pin, keychain, and sticker combo, lid and jar stickers, nightowl limited or secret owl society stickers, and night owl plant ID stakes. The Collaboration drops will include everything above and come with their own corresponding stickers. For every pack ordered, earn 5 plant stakes. If you order 3 packs of secret owl society to earn a SOS patch. *USA ONLY\* Order 4 packs of secret owl society and you'll get the patch and a glow in the dark night owl ashtray too. Spend $250 total value from order(s) to earn a tester pack, Pink Panama x Cosmic Queen. *USA ONLY\* All premium packs come with 2 seedopoly scratch off cards per pack, all regular packs come with 1 scratch off per pack. The new secret owl society packaging will go out with this drop. And please be patient with this drop, there are so many moving parts, it's gonna be hectic! The crew is coming out to help, but still...
Premium Drop 2/10
Bubblegum Queen- Hubbabubba Haze x Cosmic Queen, previously released as a tester -SOS Pack
Cosmic Revival- Little Giant CBD x Cosmic Queen -SOS Pack
Heartbreaker- (White Triangle x White Stomper) X Wizard's Apprentice, my second collab with Ronin
Mambo Sauce- Mango Smile x Wizard's Apprentice -SOS Pack
Purple Pope- Anvil x Wizard's Apprentice, my first collab with Full-Duplex aka Mandalorian Genetics
StarFox- Foxy Purps x Cosmic Queen, previously released as a tester -SOS Pack
Exclusive to Premium Members:
Cosmic Queen F4 S1- Super Sativa pheno- Daz' personal stash, the same one used in Karmic Connection, Mango Sunrise, SSO v.2, and Shekinah -40 packs or less :)
Funk Potion- Funkadelic x Wizard's Apprentice, Collab with Binary Selections (Ronin and Magic's combined forces)
Tester pack If you spent a total of $250
Pink Panama x Cosmic Queen
Valentine's Drop 2/12
Bubblegum Queen- Hubbabubba Haze x Cosmic Queen, previously released as a tester -SOS Pack
Cosmic Revival- Little Giant CBD x Cosmic Queen -SOS Pack
Heartbreaker- (White Triangle x White Stomper) X Wizard's Apprentice, Second collab with Ronin
Mambo Sauce- Mango Smile x Wizard's Apprentice -SOS Pack
Purple Pope- Anvil x Wizard's Apprentice, First collab with Full-Duplex aka Mandalorian Genetics
StarFox- Foxy Purps x Cosmic Queen, previously released as a tester -SOS Pack
Cheech Biggums- Wizard's Apprentice x Tyrone Stomper
Galaxy Brain- Zamaldelica Express x Cosmic Queen
Karmic Connection- (Chem City Blues x Chemdogging) X Cosmic Queen -SOS Pack
Mango Isle- Mango Smile x Zamaldelica Express -SOS Pack
Oh Geeze!- 3 Bears OG x Tyrone Stomper -40 packs or less, SOS Pack
Sage Scout- Forum Stomper x Wizard's Apprentice -40 packs or less
Shekinah- Supernatural OG x Cosmic Queen, blessed by Hoodoo Moses -40 packs or less, SOS Pack
Space Station Orange v.1- Orange Diesel x Cosmic Queen -40 packs or less, SOS Pack
Squanch Stomper- Samsquanch OG x Tyrone Stomper -40 packs or less
Wizard's Apprentice F3 Legacy Auto Regs (3 seeds) -40 packs or less
Zamaldelica Express F3 Legacy Auto Regs (3 seeds) -40 packs or less
Owl Pellets- ??? x ???- 10+ Seeds
Tester pack If you spent a total of $250
Pink Panama x Cosmic Queen
Drop Descriptions
Link to new thread for descriptions. Cosmic Revival - Cosmic Revival has not been tested, but I'm hoping to find some nice 1:1, 2:1, and 4:1 examples once I pop them for further line work and based off of what some hemp breeder mentors have been telling me. Currently they should run the gamit. Her flavors ranged from earthy, kushy, and there was even a milk chocolatey finisher in the mix, along with the beachy flavors found in Cosmic queen.
Thank you all for your patience with me these past few weeks. I've been handling a lot of business behind the scenes in preparation for big things next year. 2020 was the year of staying off the radar with most of my big projects and not drawing any unnecessary attention. 2021 is the year of getting licensed and really showing you what it's all about! Thank you for your trust and faith in me during my overly cautious past few months/years. I won't let you down.🙏🌱🦉🌱🙏New photo to autos scheduled for the first half of 2021: Pre '98 Bubba Kush x Auto Skywalker F4 Dosidos x Forum Stomper F4 Purple Punch x Forum Stomper F4 Sunset Sherbet x Forum Stomper F4
Secret Owl Society Text Club
The old phone number 474747 isn't in service anymore. If you'd like to join the Secret Owl Society Text Club, then text "nightowl" to (760) 670-3130. This feature SHOULD work for international users, use +1 if you're having trouble! If it still doesn't work with your telecommunications provider, it's rumored to work with a separate messaging application like Whatsapp.
NightOwl Sweaters New-ish Info
Although the new photo x auto crosses are still on hold, I will have some new collabs and maybe even a new SOS variety for the Valentine’s weekend drop. I’ll probably put up the last of the Shekinah too. 🙏🌱🦉🌱🙏
Since they were so well received, I'm planning on having more Varsity hoodies made in a different variant. I'd like to make one with the blue and white portions switched, and/or one using the burgundy/maroon color from the Secret Owl Society logo. I'm swamped right now but should have some time to dedicate to new merch after Christmas. 🙏🦉🙏
Halloween Leftovers So far Hembra Genetics and Insane Seeds has received some leftovers from the recent Halloween drop. They only have a limited quantity of certain cultivarI so check their sites, both ship internationally. --------------------------- Seedbank Exclusive Culitvar
New vendor exclusive limited-edition drop, live now!! I've spread these three new varieties out to my vendors in hopes of giving all of you a greater chance at getting them! They are a small batch and WILL NOT BE REMADE. Go support them because they've supported me. AT LEAST 4 SEEDS IN EVERY PACK, keychains, and slaps (while supplies last).
Strain Descriptions Foot Cheeze (Northern Cheeze Haze (UK Cheese pheno) x Tyrone Stomper) Extra frosty medium-large plants with sturdy side branching, dense golf ball nugs running up each branch, and a cheesy fruity smell ranging from citrus to red fruit. She finishes around 75 days from sprout, yields 2-4 ounces, and has a heavy narcotic affect. Head Cheeze (Northern Cheese Haze (Haze pheno) x Tyrone Stomper) A sweet lemony, uplifting pheno of Northern Cheese Haze met up with an extremely greasy Tyrone Stomper resulting in long greasy colas of piercing grapey haze flavors and effects. Heavy indulgence can lead to a lingering paranoia, so plan accordingly ahead of time. Finishes in approximately 70-75 days from sprout and yields around 2-4 ounces. Squanch Queen (Samsquanch OG x Cosmic Queen) Some people say creamy sweet gas doesn't exist, but it can be found within these large plants. Satellite branches will take off almost immediately and will require staking or training to make the most of them. Dense disco ball nugs climb up her branches, leading to beautiful flower clusters at the tip of each. Stepping back from the plant, you will see her overall crown shape right before your eyes. This is a heavy-hitting hybrid. The more you use the less productive that you will be. Happy and euphoric in smaller doses, she can create heavy eyelids and a severe lack of motivation when overdone. Finishes around 75 days from sprout.
You will get what you paid for 3 fem seeds, there's a chance you could get more than 3 seeds unless it says otherwise.
"My pack has a blank label, how do I know what I have?"
Those are the "Secret Owl Society" packs, they come labeled with UV ink. Daz almost always provides a small blacklight keychain, use it to reveal the pack name.
"Is there any freebies?"
Like Mephisto, Nightowl will give you 2 extra seeds on 3 seed pack orders. Same cultivar. No freebie tiers like Mephisto.
"I got a confirmation email, it still says "processing", should I be worried?"
As long as you have a confirmation email, then there's nothing to worry about your order has been received.
"Received tracking, no movement on the order since being scanned into Denver, or not scanned at all"
"Do I need TSB Premium to make a purchase, or do I purchase through Premium?"
No, you don't need TSB Premium to make a purchase. This was an option for paying members to get a chance to access the drop early. Nothing was exclusive to premium, everyone has access to all the strains. Go to the regular store page
"How do I register for a free account?"
There should be a sign-in button at the bottom of the page, or the NightOwl Store page. Look at this image to help.
"What do I do with my scratch card?"
Mail it in for the next drop, or any future drop NightOwl has specifically on TSB. When checking out select "mail-in cash/ money order". Once you complete the order, you should then get an email with mail-in details.
Kickstarter Roundup: Jan 31, 2021 | 20+ Ending Soon (including: Primal: The Awakening) & 25+ New This Week (including: Radlands)
What this is:
This is a weekly, curated listing of Kickstarter board game projects that are either:
newly posted in the past 7 days, or
ending in the next 7 days (starting Feb 01) and have at least a fighting chance of being funded.
All board game projects meeting those criteria will automatically be included, no need to ask. (The occasional non-board game project may also sneak in!) Expect new lists each Sunday sometime between midnight and noon PST.
Ending Soon
Project Info
Players
Backers
Min / Avg Pledge
Ends
Comments
The Bank Job - Don't Be A Rat! You and your crew have successfully completed the biggest bank heist of the century! Now the hard part begins! // Has raised $2,520 of $2,500 so far. (~101%) ☑
Epic Seven Arise: The Board Game Play as the heir of the covenant to put a stop to this endless cycle of destruction. // Has raised HK$3,716,932 of HK$400,000 so far. (~929%) ☑
Is That Banana Loaded?® crazy weapons family friendly game Competition to find 3 new weapon cards. Winners get pledge refunded (minimum £1) so you can win game, your idea made into cards & more. // Has raised £287 of £50 so far. (~574%) ☑
Call of Madness Fight the investigators as a Cthulhu cultists in this competitive board game for 1-4 players. Solo Mode included! // Has raised €44,152 of €12,000 so far. (~368%) ☑
Year At Play (edition: Goodbye 2020) Year At Play(Y.A.P.) is a card game that is entrenched in satire and strategy. Based on trending topics, there are no winners. // Has raised $8,385 of $10,000 so far. (~84%)
Primal: The Awakening A fully cooperative deck crafting boss-battler board game, featuring card-driven tactical combat and large-scale miniatures. // Has raised €1,663,275 of €150,000 so far. (~1109%) ☑
Mint Bid The Mint Series continues strong with the 5th game in the series! Mint Bid is a highly social auction game with lightning fast setup! // Has raised $45,204 of $10,000 so far. (~452%) ☑
Napoleon's Imperium A 2-8 player game pitching eight empires of the Napoleonic Wars into two alliances in an epic struggle for Europe. // Has raised $9,711 of $2,500 so far. (~388%) ☑
Tinners' Trail - a game by Martin Wallace Tinners' Trail - a board game by Martin Wallace, redeveloped for the modern era by Alley Cat Games // Has raised £105,227 of £14,750 so far. (~713%) ☑
Fallen Land 2nd Edition Big Box & Descendants Expansion A massive wasteland world awaits! Lead a faction to primacy in this story-driven, sandbox adventure game for 1-6 players. // Has raised $136,123 of $42,000 so far. (~324%) ☑
Button Shy Wallet Games - Reprint Campaign 2021 Our second reprint campaign for some of the long lost Button Shy titles. All games chosen by the backers! // Has raised $68,059 of $2,000 so far. (~3403%) ☑
Tarawa 1943 ---LAUNCHING JANUARY 23! A card driven solitaire game of the US Marine Corps landing on Tarawa in 1943. Playable in 45 minutes. // Has raised $27,811 of $1,943 so far. (~1431%) ☑
1860: Railways on the Isle of Wight The long-awaited return of Mike Hutton's game of tricky track-building and questionable corporate direction // Has raised $97,913 of $20,000 so far. (~490%) ☑
2020 The Game An exhilarating board game where players struggle through the challenges of 2020 to collect 270 electoral votes and win the WhiteHouse // Has raised $2,581 of $10,000 so far. (~26%)
?
15
$30 / $172
Feb 26
As Good As It Gets A family card game all about sabotage, moral dilemmas, and hypothetical decisions. // Has raised $2,143 of $5,000 so far. (~43%)
3 - 8
47
$29 / $46
Mar 26
BlackedoutGame: For the culture A fun adult card game that celebrates black culture through its music, movies, history and slang. // Has raised $57 of $5,000 so far. (~1%)
3+
3
$20 / $19
Mar 04
Button Shy Wallet Games - Reprint Campaign 2021 Our second reprint campaign for some of the long lost Button Shy titles. All games chosen by the backers! // Has raised $68,059 of $2,000 so far. (~3403%) ☑
Chat Chains: A Social Emotional Learning Game for Ages 8+ Chat Chains helps players learn to be good friends by having great conversations. Designed by psychologists with decades of experience. // Has raised $6,097 of $5,542 so far. (~110%) ☑
?
171
$25 / $36
Feb 25
Cryptid Cafe Gather food and fulfill orders to earn tips and be crowned, dare we say, "The Most Legendary Server" in this 1-4 player game. // Has raised $22,769 of $15,470 so far. (~147%) ☑
DO ANDROIDS DREAM? A cyberpunk card game. // Has raised £242 of £12,000 so far. (~2%)
3 - 12
5
$35 / £48
Feb 22
EXITUS: An Extraordinary "Escape the Room" Game Experience A story-driven, multilingual, deeply immersive, and highly interactive puzzle game with music, sounds, graphics & many other mysteries. // Has raised €12,264 of €12,500 so far. (~98%)
1
221
$43 / €55
Feb 17
Gods of Metal: Ragnarock A bombastic heavy metal-inspired RPG of epic proportions. Bust out the D4's, turn up the volume and live out your rock fantasy! // Has raised $53,443 of $20,000 so far. (~267%) ☑
NA
661
$20 / $81
Feb 22
#rpg
Human Punishment: The Beginning A brand new stand-alone game in the Human Punishment universe. 3-6 players fight the Machine Revolution in a dystopian cyberpunk city. // Has raised €206,034 of €25,000 so far. (~824%) ☑
Just Add Dice 🎲 Mini Games - Make 100 Quick credit card-sized games for your favorite dice set, great for roleplaying or gaming downtime // Has raised $1,077 of $185 so far. (~582%) ☑
MOB - Big Apple A gorgeous portrayal of 1920's New York City wrapped into an amazing area control experience. // Has raised $20,093 of $10,000 so far. (~201%) ☑
Murder, Mayhem & Lollipops A quirky, funny, intentionally offensive strategy card game for 2-4 players. // Has raised $1,637 of $1,000 so far. (~164%) ☑
2 - 4
25
$20 / $65
Feb 24
Music To My Beers DJ BEAT DRINK REPEAT // Has raised $3,092 of $10,000 so far. (~31%)
3+
48
$32 / $64
Feb 28
Radlands ☢️ The game you will take with you through the apocalypse. // Has raised C$287869 of C$25000 so far. (~1151%) ☑
Reload An authentic battle royale experience for 2-4 players offering a combination of fast-paced and a true freedom of play. // Has raised $39,396 of $20,000 so far. (~197%) ☑
Shroom Shroom Buy, sell, and trade all kinds of crazy mushrooms on your way to victory in this exciting, strategic, and family-friendly card game. // Has raised $1,254 of $4,500 so far. (~28%)
?
26
$35 / $48
Feb 25
Taco 'Bout It A card game that encourages people to address their mental health. // Has raised $2,639 of $2,000 so far. (~132%) ☑
2 - 5
59
$35 / $45
Feb 05
Warbattle: a remote tabletop fantasy game A two-player tabletop fantasy battle game designed to be played remotely, designed by a 9 year old, his mom and his uncle. // Has raised $704 of $300 so far. (~235%) ☑
Zodiac War - An Astrology and Tarot Themed Board Game Zodiac War is a fast-paced game for 2 to 4 players, true to the principles of both modern astrology and tarot. // Has raised $21,784 of $18,000 so far. (~121%) ☑
For all of you Cathie Wood die-hard fans, this company is in ARK Invest's $IZRL fund, which is their Israel Focused ETF. It falls under their Next Generation, "Deep Learning" and "AI" disruption platforms.
ARK Invest $IZRL Fund Holding Ceragon has been talked about from Deadnsyde before. They've been an industry leader for more than 20 years. They just missed their earnings in the last quarterly earnings call at the start of the week, but I'm not worried, here's why:
Ceragon's History
"Our global portfolio of customers includes mobile operators, wireless service providers, public safety organizations, government agencies, utility companies, and oil and gas companies" ----- ----- could benefit from gaming/VR boom, wireless service/5G boom, AI boom, electric/clean energy boom, and defense (government/public safety). ----- ----- Ceragon has a history of benefitting from wireless generations transitions. "Our wireless SDH solution drove the transition from 2G to 3G. This almost tripled our revenues at the time from $55 million to above $160 million per year." Ceragon "were the first to introduce wireless IP hauling, compact, all-outdoor solutions, dual-core chipsets which allowed us to ride the 4G wave globally and took us from $160 million to a yearly run rate of about $300 million."
The Opportunity
The COVID-induced digital transformation generated massive traffic and complexity that strain existing networks, creating an urgent need for more network capacity. To keep pace, operators are pushing 5G from initial trials into the field. "And this -- what we have been -- is what we have been waiting for and are very excited about. We believe we are poised to provide operators with the technology, expertise, and services they need to make this transition happen." "We expect to continue to be a key enabler of the exciting 5G evolution." "5G networks require massive capacity, density, and flexibility with extremely low latency. And we believe our differentiated solution lead the market in all these areas. We are one of the only players that develops all-network components in-house." "We are one of the only players that develops all-network components in-house." "So, what makes us the technology leader of wireless hauling and even more so when it comes to wireless hauling for 5G? The answer is the combination of four elements. First of all, we are the only player that builds our own purpose-driven chipsets, giving us the tightest integration in the market, functionality, and cost-wise. Second, total vertical integration." "We are the only player that does everything in-house from chipset development for microwave and millimeter-wave to complete radio and networking system. Third, we are the only player with leadership in all three domains of the disaggregated wireless hauling network, networking software, networking hardware, and radios. And finally, we believe we are the kings of compact, all-outdoor solutions with nearly 40% market share of the segment as measured by Skylight research firm."
Ceragon's Financials
https://www.ceragon.com/hubfs/CRNT_Q4_2020_Financial_Metrics.pdf Ran Vered -- Chief Financial Officer "Our financial performance in the fourth quarter remains strong with strong collections enabling us to generate $9.3 million in cash flow from operating and investing activities and to repay almost $12 million in loans. In fact, all main balance sheet indicators, DSO, inventory, short-term loans, and cash flow moved in the right direction this quarter despite the very challenging environment." Europe, North America, Latin America and Africa had very strong quarter. Revenue's by region varied due to COVID restrictions in some areas. This is expected to change in 2021 and will put CRNT in a more positive direction. Q4 Revenue: $74M, up 5% from Q3, up 4% from Q4 last year Q4 Gross Profit: For the quarter on a non-GAAP basis was $21.4 million, giving us a non-GAAP gross margin of 28.9% R&D Expenses: Research and development expenses for the fourth quarter on non-GAAP basis were $7.7 million, a slight increase from Q4 2019 mainly due to our progress with chip development. Will taper on R&D in mid-2021 as reach tape-out.
I just wanted to provide an update to my initial DD on Payoneer located here. Specifically, I received some very nice customer feedback from a fellow redditer. I also summarize my thoughts after visiting Payoneer. Finally, I offer some thoughts on valuation and why its not as straightforward as just applying a multiple to revenue. User feedback. I would very much like to thank u/-Jack-The-Lad, who provided some really great insights into his experience using Payoneer as a vendor based in Europe.
Payoneer offers vendors the ability to move money with a U.S. bank account and pay suppliers, without having to deal with too many banking hurdles or red tape.
A lot of freelancers on Upwork.com use Payoneer because many of them live in countries that Upwork.com can't wire money to.
Once vendors receive funds into their Payoneer account they can either withdraw the cash using their Payoneer provided Master Card or do a direct bank transfer from Payoneer to their local bank. Usually funds arrive within 1-2 business days.
Vendors can also pay suppliers directly through wire transfers and pay for services like hosting using the MasterCard. However, customers can't fund their Payoneer account. While Payoneer likes the reputation of being "a U.S bank account" they really are not. They are a service that allows you to receive payment from companies. While individuals can send money from and to other Payoneer accounts, wire transfers to the account can only be done by a business.
As a result of the Wirecard scandal, Payoneer now gives customers the option to choose to hold their funds on their MasterCard or on Payoneer own accounts.
From u/-Jack-The-Lad: “Overall I think Payoneer is a good company. They have a lot of room for expansion and their market is beyond huge. One thing I am concerned about is the potential for increased regulatory scrutiny. As Payoneer grows, it will likely get noticed by countries and may face stricter regulations both in the U.S and abroad.”
Customer service. After spending some time on the Payoneer sub-reddit, I have a few initial impressions.
While the Wirecard scandal caused a headache for Payoneer’s customers, it seems to be a transitory issue.
The Wirecard scandal aside, Payoneer’s customer service is less than perfect and needs to improve. (Note: few people go out of their way to praise a bank or their cable company for seamlessly delivering the services the customers pay for. Please keep that in mind when browsing Payoneer.)
Valuation. A number of people are comparing Payoneer’s multiple to those of PayPal and Shopify. While these are the right comps, Payoneer's multiple will be determined by its customer lifetime value (CLTV), which is an NPV of the total cash flows from each customer over his/heits lifetime. (While technically FinTech companies are valued on revenue or earnings/EBITDA its CLTV which will determine the valuation multiple.) There's a reason why the company included different cohort growth rates and mentioned a less than 12-month customer payback in the presentation. These are the metrics that matter. Additionally, many are looking at Payoneer’s transaction fees to get a sense for the potential revenue opportunity. While this is logical, it is somewhat misleading because these services are considered low quality revenue (cf. the race to sub-1% fees in China). Similar to the CDN business, where moving traffic is a commodity while providing web acceleration and cloud security offer higher margins, Payoneer needs to upsell higher value added services to its customer base, which was initially attracted by the low service fees. Once again, Payoneer highlighted these value added services in its presentation TLDR: Based on first hand feedback, Payoneer provides a very needed service. While the Wirecard scandal and fallout seem to be transitory, Payoneer’s customer service needs to continue to improve. Fortunately, like cable, FinTech customers seem willing to tolerate a certain degree of frustration...for now. I definitely believe Payoneer has potential as a long-term buy and hold and is also a likely take-out candidate. While the global B2B industry is fragmented, Payoneer is playing the long-game by transitioning from commodity service fees to high-touch and sticky value add services. The key metric analysts will focus on is CLTV which will benefit from the shift to these services. Moreover, Payoneer’s valuation multiple should reflect this transition by increasing (or “expanding” in WS parlance) as Payoneer executes on this strategy. Disclosure & Disclaimer I am not a financial advisor. Please do your own due diligence. I have the following positions:
1,000 FTOC common shares
10 February/August Covered Calls @ $17.50 (short)/$12.50 (long). I intend to write monthly OTM calls against the long options (i.e., August options), which is known as a diagonal spread or poor man's covered call (PMCC). If anyone has insight into the attractiveness of the warrants, I would appreciate his/her perspective.
I've been investing, trading, gambling for about 5 years now and I've done pretty much every rookie mistake there is. Sold winners from 2016 (Shop,Nvidia,AMD,Paypal) Lost fortunes on chasing that pennystock. Played and lost with trying to time the market, option trading. I've been very active during these years reading and learning and you be surprised how often people get sucked in to the same stuff you self did once. These are 8 guidelines that really helps me and that I've learn to appreciate over the years. 1.Don't FOMO Yes we all heard it. You know that feeling when people are posting crazy gains on these new stocks, we all saw the EV hype. It's so so easy to get sucked in to thinking, if I just put in some money right now I can get 10-20-50% gains in a few days! It's already up 200% this month, surely it will keep going!? This takes some real patience to keep your head cool and realize it could very well be overbought and the downside risk is just a lot higher than potential. I've seen several sector hypes. We all remember the crypto bubble, the weed bubble and now lately the EV bubble. They all come and go and the more of these you been in from the start the easier it is to realize what's going on. 2. Cut your losers and let your winners run Buying the dip is great when the market is down but if the fundamentals of the business is bad then usually this will just result in greater loss. On the flipside, if you have a few great picks and nothing fundamentally has changed and it keeps moving in the right direction then don't be afarid to keep adding. 3. When the overall market is down, you buy No one can predict the market, don't waste time on it. When the overall market is down your stock is literally on sale. Usually every sector is down when the market is down, your stock and business has not changed one bit however, it's just a lower price now. 4. Don't be afraid of corrections. Yeah it sucks seeing your portfolio down 20-30-40% but realize that stocks always go up, they seriously always do. Just keep your head down, keep buying and play that long game. 5. Small amounts can turn into big profits down the line When you get really into investing you seriously start rethinking your life. That new OLED 77 inch? Only 2k right? What do you think that 2000 could be in 10 years? You just want to put every damn penny you got in the stock market because compounding interests are just too good to pass up. So just rethink if really need that new thing now or if it could wait. 6. If the company keeps growing, why sell? Taking profit is good however not always the best thing to do. If the stock you have keeps growing and keeps crushing earnings. Why should you sell? Why just not keep it for years, it sure can be tempting but are you sure that money could be spent better elsewhere when it's easily growing in your winning stock. 7, Never regret that you didn't buy more We all been here. Why the hell didn't I buy more of Amazon? Why didn't I just put my whole paycheck in this stock!? You can never do this. It won't lead to anything, you can't fix it and you honestly did the best decisions at the time with the information you had. Realize that at the time this was the best decision, ofcourse hindsight it looks like you could have done a better decision. 8. Don't sell and buy in again to time a correction This is very hard and with the momentum some growth stocks have these days you might just end up loosing more of that profit even if there is a slight correction. Just keep the money in and stop worrying.
Just to be upfront, I view Payoneer as a great long-term hold. I started acquiring PayPal shares in 2016 and haven't sold since. I see some parallels with Payoneer but patience is the key. This is not really a SPAC play as much as its a investing play. (No comment on WSB.) While getting added to ARKF would be nice for a near-term pop, sometimes lying low to get your act together is a good thing. PayPal benefitted from the same dynamic until investors realized the company's scale was enormous. (Obviously, the eBay relationship played a huge role but the stock traded in the $80-110 range for two years before Covid drove the stock up 3x.) There will come a point when investors realize Payoneer's opportunity, but right now the opportunity is buried under mediocre financials (see below) and a frothy SPAC market for which anything less than a 50% pop at DA is a dud. It's only when you dig deeper into the potential scale benefits and where the current investments are going that you realize this may be PayPal 2.0. Hence, thee current situation is actually a great opportunity for Payoneer investors. Obviously, I would encourage everyone to do their own DD starting with the investor presentation and webcast. I personally found the presentation short on key metrics and financial detail and long on buzz words. (I guess $95mn in bankers' fees only buys so much these days.) That said, the acquisition has yet to close and Payoneer needs to be prudent. I would also add that while I avoid stereotypes, Payoneer seems to be another addition to Israel's strong lineage and tradition of building great technology companies where the MO seems to be under-promise and over-deliver. ********* Payoneer (FTOC) Summary: Payoneer offers investors exposure to mobile and digital commerce, particularly cross-border transactions, at a reasonable entry point. What makes the investment compelling is that Payoneer has been around for 15 years, which removes a fair amount of execution risk related to growth, i.e., the team knows what they're doing. The company is also investing in providing additional services for its customer base which should contribute to growth and strengthen its competitive position. IMHO the key for the company (and the stock) is to better explain the customer ROI at the unit level and why investments now make sense from a CLTV sense. The company also needs to address flattish margins on 25% revenue growth and negative EBITDA after 15 years of operations. I think the company missed an excellent opportunity to frame the discussion out of the gate by highlighting the benefits of its scale with detailed customer metrics, e.g., subscriber acquisition costs (SAC), churn, and most importantly customer lifetime value (CLTV). These are really the metrics which matter to thoughtful investors as well as the usual financials. If this was an obvious play, it would be trading significantly higher. (Un)fortunately, most investors don't like complexity or have the patience to watch a good company become a great company. I think this may be a situation where really digging into the financials and business model could reward investors handsomely over time. That said, far more DD is needed as well as much more disclosure from the company before one can make a decision. I would encourage investors to take a modest position and then build on it as the DD validates. The acquisition is expected to close within the first half of 2021 at which point detailed financials should be available. Company: Payoneer is Paypal for B2B global commerce, particularly outside North American and Europe. The company provides B2B services for millions of SMB and enterprises around the world. In 2020, the company recognized $345mn of revenue (31% Y/Y growth adjusted for the pandemic) on $44bn of transactions. The company was founded 15 years ago and operates in over 190 countries (basically the whole world). Customers: Enterprises and SMB. The ideal customer is a small but growing SMB doing business all over the world which needs currency, compliance and business services. Payoneer is an obvious candidate to handles these needs given its global network. This blog post does a nice job of discussing Payoneer's entry into China, which looks promising. My concern with China is exactly what's happening, namely, the competition is driving down the price. PayPal entered with a 5% fee and the industry is now around 1%. The post quotes a VC who aptly sums up the situation:
This dynamic obviously has margin implications and also illustrates why higher-value services are important longer-term. Expect WorldFirst and AirWallex to continue to further drive this dynamic. I need to comment on Payoneer's customer service, which based on a perusal of Payoneer leaves something to be desired. First, the Wirecard scandal caused Payoneer to move to an Ireland-based bank, which has pretty onerous documentation requirements. Clearly this has upset a fair amount of vendors. I have no idea how many were impacted as a % of the total customer base but enough to warrant attention. I'm hoping this is a transitory issue but it obviously needs to be monitored. Second, the payments industry like the broadband industry is one in which if the service is not delivered seamlessly, customers will gripe to no end. (You hate your cable company but you NEED BB. You know it.) The only thing worse than BB latency is cash latency, i.e., a delay or freeze on your account. Clearly, the industry as a whole needs to do better. I can attest firsthand that vendor complaints about PayPal have reached a deafening level. However, as one disgruntled vendor notes, it's basically a two horse race. There is no third option. Assuming that's the case, I like Payoneer's position given its lower fees and better service on a relative basis than PayPal. Again, I want to see customer service scores moving in the right direction. No question. But the industry has come a long way from Western Union. Customer service. After spending some time on the Payoneer sub-reddit, I have two initial impressions.
While the Wirecard scandal caused a headache for Payoneer’s customers, it seems to be a transitory issue.
The Wirecard scandal aside, Payoneer’s customer service is less than perfect and needs to improve. (Note: few people go out of their way to praise a bank or their cable company for seamlessly delivering the services the customers pay for. Please keep that in mind when browsing Payoneer.)
User feedback. I would very much like to thank u/-Jack-The-Lad, who provided some really great insights into his experience using Payoneer as a vendor based in Europe.
Payoneer offers vendors the ability to move money with a U.S. bank account and pay suppliers, without having to deal with too many banking hurdles or red tape.
A lot of freelancers on Upwork.com use Payoneer because many of them live in countries that Upwork.com can't wire money to.
Once vendors receive funds into their Payoneer account they can either withdraw the cash using their Payoneer provided Master Card or do a direct bank transfer from Payoneer to their local bank. Usually funds arrive within 1-2 business days.
Vendors can also pay suppliers directly through wire transfers and pay for services like hosting using the MasterCard. However, customers can't fund their Payoneer account. While Payoneer likes the reputation of being "a U.S bank account" they really are not. They are a service that allows you to receive payment from companies. While individuals can send money from and to other Payoneer accounts, wire transfers to the account can only be done by a business.
As a result of the Wirecard scandal, Payoneer now gives customers the option to choose to hold their funds on their MasterCard or on Payoneer own accounts.
From u/-Jack-The-Lad: “Overall I think Payoneer is a good company. They have a lot of room for expansion and their market is beyond huge. One thing I am concerned about is the potential for increased regulatory scrutiny. As Payoneer grows, it will likely get noticed by countries and may face stricter regulations both in the U.S and abroad.”
Fellow customer u/tonysoleoptions notes that Payoneer offers a no frills currency exchange service while is reliable and dependable. In terms of areas for improvement he cites the slower transaction times relative to PayPal and less than optimal reporting.
Industry and market opportunity: B2B global marketplace. The attractiveness of FinTech can be summarized in a few words, namely, “scale” and “network effects”. From the metrics Payoneer shared, it looks like they’re benefitting from these dynamics but the disclosure could have been better (more about that below). Analysts estimate the global B2B market at tens of trillions $ and cross-border payments at $300bn. Obviously the pandemic only accelerated these trends. (From the presentation, it looks like company B2B AAP volume more than doubled at 140% in 2020 although the CFO later cited a 53% increase in volumes so not sure exactly how to interpret that.) Management team and investor base: Betsy Cohen led FTOC and has extensive expensive in the FinTech space, including leading previous SPACs and founding Bancorp Bank. Scott Galit has experience at MasterCard and First Data, which is exactly what you want to see. As this Barron's article notes (h/t whmcpanel), unlike with an IPO, the sponsor and institutional investors get to look at the financials before making an investment decision. This is a crucial distinction for two reasons. First, you need to choose your SPAC carefully because you're relying on the sponsor to do thorough due diligence (DD). Second, if quality institutional investors participate, it generally means they like what they saw in their DD. On both accounts, Payoneer looks promising. Betsy Cohen is an industry leader in FinTech and Payoneer's institutional investor (II) base is high quality with IIs such as Dragoneer, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, Millennium, T. Rowe, and Winslow Capital Management. Wellington Management, an existing investor, also participated. These are IIs who understand FinTech and like what they saw in their DD, which is an encouraging sign. Business model: Volume and customer growth drives revenues. Volumes grew over 53% in 2020 (67% adjusted for the pandemic) and are expected to grow at 44% and 33% in 2021 and 2022, respectively, which translates into 25% annual revenue growth per year for the next two years. I would say all else equal flat revenue growth vs. decelerating volume growth is a good thing but again a deeper dive into the product mix is necessary. The key here is that these growth rates are higher than the overall market so Payoneer appears to be taking share but again more DD is needed. While the transaction margins have been growing, the company forecasted margins to remain flat at 72% for the next two years. I believe this forecast is due to a change in the blended take rate but unfortunately the company really didn’t elaborate here. I would have expected the revenue growth to drive some incremental margin expansion but I’m clearly missing a piece of the story. This may be an issue for investors. That said, the CFO offered long-terms targets of +20% revenue growth and +20% EBITDA margins. I was also surprised the company wasn't EBITDA positive given how long it's been around but I need to see how much of the costs were investment or subscriber acquisition related. As for the all-important unit-economics, the customer payback period is less than 12 months, which is nice. Disclosing CLTV would have been better. The company also noted net volume retention (i.e., same store comparison of customer Y/Y volume) is over 100% but did not disclose exactly what the percentage is. This is somewhat irrelevant since anything less than 100% and the company wouldn't be getting acquired. I found the SMB cohort volume on slide 27 interesting. While it's lacking a Y-axis for volume (ugh!), it's clear each year's cohort of customers are roughly following a similar trajectory although 2015 seems to be a slight outlier. Now, if the company would just disclose the unit economics for these cohorts, you'd have your investment decision made. I think at this point, you have to trust the quality of FTOC and the II's DD. As I suggested above, my guess is that they drilled down pretty heavily and liked what they saw. Finally, many are looking at Payoneer’s transaction fees to get a sense for the potential revenue opportunity. While this is logical, it is somewhat misleading because these services are considered low quality revenue as I note above (cf. the race to sub-1% fees in China). Similar to the CDN business, where moving traffic is a commodity while providing web acceleration and cloud security offer higher margins, Payoneer needs to upsell higher value added services to its customer base, which was initially attracted by the low service fees. Once again, Payoneer highlighted these value added services in its presentation Note: the adjusted numbers were a turnoff. Covid happened. If you're benefitting from the acceleration in cross-border traffic due to the pandemic, don't exclude those sectors or markets negatively impacted by said pandemic. I believe the company was done a disservice by its bankers here in trying to manipulate the numbers. Investors aren't stupid and if they are, they're not the ones you want. This massaging of the numbers coupled with the lack of PF shares outstanding is a little concerning. It's early and the deal isn't completed yet so I'll give management the benefit of the doubt. For now. Valuation: FinTech companies such as PayPal, Square, and Payoneer are valued on subscriber growth. The key metric which the analysts will judge the company on is customer lifetime value (CLTV), which is an NPV of the total cash flows from each customer over his/heits lifetime. (Analysts apply a similar approach to wireless companies and data center REITs where each new subscriber or data center build is viewed on a payback and NPV basis. Technically, these companies are valued on earnings, EBITDA or AFFO but its CLTV or customer NPV which determines the valuation multiple.) Counterintuitively, once the company reaches a certain scale and growth slows, the margins and FCF will improve but the analysts will become concerned that growth is moderating even though the financials are improving. (That's when the smart money will bail.) Again, CLTV is the name of the game and is the primary way to evaluate companies such as Payoneer. There's a reason why the company included different cohort growth rates and mentioned a less than 12-month customer payback in the presentation. These are the metrics that matter. Based on FTOC's current share price of ~$13.50, Payoneer's current market cap is roughly $6bn, which assumes ~430mn total shares outstanding.* (This is a SWAG as management did not include a pro forma cap table with shares.) The current valuation implies an enterprise value (EV) to revenue multiple on 2021 revenue in the mid-teens, which is much closer to global payment processors such as First Data than digital payment and ecommerce companies such as PayPal, Square, and Shopify. FTOC shareholders will own 19.2% at closing. Finally, there is a management earn-out of 30 million shares at the $15 and $17 mark which will dilute existing FTOC shareholders but comes with 10-25% upside from current levels.
The initial valuation assumed an enterprise value (EV) of $3.3 billion, which equates to 7.6x EV to 2021 revenue. Just to clarify, FTOC was negotiating a CASH investment, i.e., the $755mn raised at IPO and held in trust, not an acquisition with its shares as currency. FTOC's pro forma ownership of 19.2% for a $755mn equity investment roughly equates to the pro forma market cap of $3.8bn mentioned in the presentation. Yes, there is some dilution from the sponsor's promote and the 30m shares in earn-out but I would argue that FTOC got a fair price for its investment as evidenced by the fact that FTOC shares are trading +30% above NAV.
Investment Thesis:
Majority of traffic stays within the network. In my opinion, this is the key company metric because it reflects how valuable the network is to its customers. This metric continues to increase for Payoneer.
Exposure to digital commerce and mobility trends. As everyone realizes, this is a big and growing market which the pandemic accelerated.
Global network provides network effects and is difficult to replicate. The benefits of network effects cannot be overstated as Paypal has proven. As a company acquires more customers, the value of its network increases. Payoneer’s business model leverages this same dynamic. Moreover, its network would be very difficult to replicate. The company’s global platform includes over 80 banks and clearing partners in over 100 countries. The company also provides customers data about its transactions, which I believe will be increasingly useful and sticky.
Playing the long game. The company’s focus on investing for future services is actually what gets me most excited as it may ward off near-term investor interest and improves its competitive position. It’s also a sign of a mature management team. The opportunity to provide additional services such as working capital, compliance and tax services seems like an obvious strategic move to drive growth. Specifically, working capital is far and away the most important service and something SMBs are desperate for. I can tell you based on several years in the VC industry that this is their number one issue. You have the funds for payroll but they're tied up in A/R. This is where Payoneer is currently focused and I think it will represent a significant competitive advantage relative to its competition. I would love to see Payoneer partner with an institution like SVB which caters to small and emerging companies. Expect M&A to figure into the company’s strategic plans as well.
Quality Sponsor and II's. As I noted above, Payoneer has a blue chip II base who performed DD not available with an IPO. These IIs clearly liked what they saw. Investors should certainly do their own DD but note that there is some impressive names in the II base, which is encouraging.
Attractive valuation. Payoneer’s valuation is much closer to global payment processors than digital payment and ecommerce companies. The negative EBITDA, flattish transactional margins, and "adjusted" revenue are certainly issues and need to be addressed. However, as noted above, Payoneer needs to be viewed in the correct context to value it appropriately. While the company doesn't merit PayPal's multiple given it doesn't have its growth or scale (yet), the company is certainly benefitting from scale/ network effects and deserves a multiple which reflects this. I expect the valuation multiple to rise (or "expand" in WS parlance) as the business becomes better understood within the investment community and the company posts a few solid quarters of earnings results. I feel like this is more "a when rather than if" issue. Thus, the current valuation represents an attractive entry point for current investors.
Risks:
Competition. PayPal is a giant and only getting stronger as 4Q results testifies. The company has leveraged network scale effects to achieve a market cap rivaling MasterCard. Skrill is also well known in this space. MasterCard and Visa certainly play in cross border transactions but I don’t think they provide the level of services Payoneer does. Definitely need to do more DD here.
Customer risk. Related to the previous point, if Payoneer loses a large customer like AMZN, the stock will take a hit (cf AMEX walking away from CostCo).
Regulatory. Payoneer needs to navigate every country’s regulatory environment. The company has certainly done a good job but as the FAANGS can testify, the larger you get, the bigger target you become, e.g., Europe is trying to displace MA and V.
Crypto currency. At this point, everyone in FinTech better have a crypto currency strategy even if it's just allowing transactions in BTC. Crypto currency was made for seamless cross-border currency transactions which makes a crypto strategy doubly important for Payoneer.
FX exposure. I’m sure the company has a world class FX hedging team but I feel like this needs to be flagged given the scale of the business. Investors could unintentionally have FX exposure.
TLDR: While the global B2B industry is fragmented, Payoneer is playing the long-game by transitioning from commodity service fees to high-touch and sticky value add services. The key metric analysts will focus on is CLTV which will benefit from the shift to these services. Moreover, Payoneer’s valuation multiple should reflect this transition by increasing (or “expanding” in WS parlance) as Payoneer executes on this strategy. I believe Payoneer will significantly reward LT investors at the current valuation with the caveat that far more DD is needed around competition and the financial model. I also would not be surprised if PayPal took them out given their $6bn market cap vs. PayPal's +$300bn. It would be a very nice complement to PayPal's existing business assuming the transaction past regulatory scrutiny. My advice is to spend more time digging and in the meantime acquire a small position upon which to build. ******************** Disclosure & Disclaimer I am not a financial advisor. Please do your own due diligence. I have the following positions:
1,000 FTOC common shares
10 February/August Covered Calls @ $17.50 (short)/$12.50 (long). I intend to write monthly OTM calls against the long options (i.e., August options), which is known as a diagonal spread or poor man's covered call (PMCC). If anyone has insight into the attractiveness of the warrants, I would appreciate his/her perspective.
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning February 1st, 2021
Good Saturday morning to all of you here on smallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning February 1st, 2021.
Wall Street braces for bumpy trading in the week ahead as the GameStop short squeeze unfolds - (Source)
Earnings news from Amazon and Alphabet, the important January jobs report and Washington’s discussion of stimulus could all be important to markets in the week ahead, but none of it is likely to get more attention than the short squeezes driven by retail investors. Stocks had a rocky week, with the S&P 500 down 3.3% to 3,714. The S&P was down 1.1% for January, its first negative month since October and a warning for the year, according to the old Wall Street adage. “We were due for some type of decline. We’ve been straight up since October. It’s not unusual that we’re backing off a bit,” said Steve Massocca, managing director at Wedbush Securities. Trading could remain bumpy in the coming week, as the S&P 500 struggles to hold above 3,716 its 50-day moving average and a key technical level. “This is the first time we’re at the 50-day moving average since early November,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “It’s just a level we haven’t seen in a while and it’s an important first line in the sand of whether the market uses this as a pivot spot to bounce again.” “The buy the dip mentality doesn’t die easy, but if you break that [50-day], that portends something else,” he said. Massocca and others see little impact on the broader market from the phenomena of retail investors piling into stocks that are being shorted by big investors. Fueled by no fee trading, retail investors created a flurry of trading in GameStop and other heavily shorted names, like AMC Entertainment. If the stocks rise, in theory, the firms that are short sellers will have to buy stock to cover, and that activity could drive the price even higher in a so-called short squeeze. GameStop was the poster child for that trade this past week. GameStop shares closed 68% higher on Friday, bringing their gain for the week to 400%. The retailer’s shares hit a high of $483 on Jan. 28. “This is somewhat isolated,” Massocca said of trading in GameStop and other shorts. He said it may not be a phenomena for that long since there aren’t that many heavily shorted stocks. “I think they may be hunting new names.” The short squeeze story has garnered broad interest, in the general news media and from Washington. Lawmakers from both parties are eager to look into the fact that Robinhood and other online brokers restricted trading in the hottest short names when trading was frenzied. Robinhood said it was responding to SEC rules on net capital requirements and clearinghouse deposits that brokers have to comply with. “This was the busiest week for earnings reported with 82% of the companies reported better than expected earnings. It’s a really good quarter, but obviously overshadowed by the short squeeze news,” said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management. He said some of the biggest tech names have been lagging, like Apple and Microsoft. “The combination of demanding valuations and short squeeze news has overshadowed a really good performance of corporate earnings so far,” Grohowski said. “We’re constructive on the market. Fundamentals do look encouraging to us.” Strategists have expected a pullback in the first part of the year, and many say it would become a buying opportunity. Hedge funds did sell long positions in the past week, but firms like Morgan Stanley and Barclays say the de-leveraging is not likely to have a big impact on stocks. But for investors who end up buying in at the end of the short squeezes, they could feel some pain. “I do think this isn’t going to end well,” said Grohowski. “These kind of one way trades they don’t end well particularly for those that come later to the party.” “I think this will be one of those,” he said. “GameStop is not worth what it is trading for today. I do believe at the end of the day the value of a company is important and it’s going to be driven by fundamentals. These dislocations and distortions of value, they will correct and many will be hurt by that.” But Grohowski said it’s encouraging that the surge in retail activity was driven by younger investors. “We’ve wanted for some time for this younger generation to be more interested in the financial markets and equity investing,” he said. “I know a lot of experienced market participants were not anticipating it being this way. It’s not just a one time kind of distortion. “I think this is thought-provoking in terms of a way a younger generation might be looking at investing, by their rules, not the rules of the traditional market participants,” Grohowski added. He expects the January employment report to get some attention Friday, and it should be weaker with just 50,000 to 60,000 jobs added. He said the markets will also monitor the progress of stimulus discussions in Washington, as valuations have risen on expectations of a package coming soon. President Joe Biden has proposed $1.9 trillion in spending, but Republicans are not in agreement.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
2021 kicks off the first year of a new four-year presidential cycle. One of the most popular questions we’ve received lately is how have stocks performed historically during this political year. For starters, the S&P 500 Index historically has gained 6.8% per year during the first year of the four-year presidential cycle, but stocks have done better when the president was re-elected than when someone new occupied the White House. This makes sense, as a new president could bring new policies and potential uncertainty. Additionally, stocks do better during years three and four under a new president, while they are much weaker early in the cycle.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, breaking down all the quarters of the four-year presidential cycle shows that the first quarter of the first year in the cycle is one of only two quarters with a negative average return.
Bigger picture, historically the fourth quarter of the year has been the strongest of the year, with the first quarter the second best on average. Don’t forget, the third quarter is usually a weak one. Please note, below is for all years, not just the first year of the cycle.
We will take a closer look at February returns next week on the blog, but it is worth noting that when a new party is in power in the White House, historically stocks have struggled from late January until early March. “It is interesting, but from around the time of the inauguration to several weeks out, stocks tend to be pretty weak,” according to LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “It may be as simple as new leadership could bring with it new policies and added uncertainty”.
“In the short term, the market is a popularity contest. In the long term, the market is a weighing machine.” -Warren Buffett The incredible action from some of the most heavily shorted names has investors everywhere wondering what it all means? GameStop (GME) specifically has taken the country’s imagination by storm, as the stock started the year under $20 per share and this morning nearly hit $500. Please note, we aren’t allowed to discuss individual equities, and in no way are we recommending any stocks in this blog, but from a bigger perspective, what is happening here? Basically, individual investors are using message boards like Reddit to find some of the most shorted stocks, then they all pile in at the same time, forcing large institutions to cover their shorts, and thus producing massive buying pressure. LPL Research doesn’t think these parabolic moves reflect an overall unhealthy market, but institutions covering shorts at sizable losses may be removing capital from some big cap names. “While these developments could be another sign of excessive optimism in certain segments of the equity markets, we do not believe they represent a sign of a broader market bubble or indicate a major correction is forthcoming,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Don’t forget, overall market breadth is extremely healthy and the credit markets are functioning just fine—we don’t see a repeat of 1999 like some are claiming.” Lastly, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, after a 72% rally in the S&P 500 Index (and more in small caps and the Nasdaq), maybe it is simply time for a break. After all, the current bull market has tracked almost perfectly the start of the 1982 and 2009 bull markets thus far, and both of those took a break for a few months starting around this point in the cycle.
Most Heavily Shorted Stocks at the End of 2020 and Now
In the table below, we show the 20 stocks in the Russell 3000 that currently have the highest short interest as a percentage of float. It should come as no surprise that GameStop (GME) still tops that list with 122.97% of float short as of the most recent data for mid-month. That is even after a 21.36 percentage point drop from the end of 2020 when 144.34% of shares were short. It was also the most heavily shorted stock then. The runner-up is Dillard's (DDS) which currently has 83.04% of shares sold short compared to over 90% at the end of 2020. Again, despite that sizeable decline in the percentage of shares sold short, it was also the second most heavily shorted stock one month ago. Of the rest of the top 20, there are six other names with lower short interest than the end of last year. Looking across the rest of the most heavily shorted stocks, Sumo Logic (SUMO), American Well Corp (AMWL), and Sunpower (SPWR) are the stocks that have seen their short interest as a percentage of equity float rise the most. In terms of stock price performance, SPWR has been the one with the biggest rally having doubled YTD. The only other stock that has doubled YTD in this cohort has been GME.
In the table below, we show the stocks that have seen the biggest changes in the percent of shares sold short between the end of 2020 and the most recent data as of January 15th. Those currently in the top 20 most shorted stocks are highlighted in gray. Across the entire Russell 3,000, 1,777 stocks have seen their short interest as a percent of short move lower in the two week period from the end of December to mid-January. As shown, even after the massive short squeeze that has taken place, GME is actually not the stock that has seen the biggest decline in shorts. Relay Therapeutics (RLAY) holds that title with a 22.62 percentage point decline. That is even though the stock has experienced a relatively smaller move than some of its peers. Granted, a number of other stocks like nCino (NCNO) and Berkeley Lights (BPYU) to name a few have actually moved lower so far in 2020 and have also seen their short interest decline significantly. On the other end of the spectrum, WW International (WW) has seen its short interest rise the most.
US funding markets are awash with liquidity thanks to ongoing QE purchases by the Fed and the progression of fiscal policy since the end of the year, as well as normal seasonal tailwinds that see more liquidity after year-end balance sheet constraints would roll off. Funding markets refer to collateralized, short-term lending via repo and related wholesale cash transactions. Government money market funds that are allowed to conduct repo operations as well as buying Treasury and Agency debt are seeing roughly typical inflows, but those come on top of record share of overall money market funds. As a result, repo rates have been plunging. The secured overnight financing rate, which tracks the volume-weighted general collateral repo rate has fallen to 3 basis points above the bottom of the Fed Funds target range. While repo rates falling below the Fed Funds target range wouldn’t be a catastrophe and some parts of the market have gotten there, it’s not in the FOMC’s interest to have funding rates trading far outside its target policy rate range on a regular basis. The solution already exists, of course: the NY Fed has a standing overnight reverse repo facility first introduced back in 2013 which is likely to start draining cash as investors seek higher returns than the repo markets offer. Reserve scarcity, which roll-off brought to bear in 2018 and 2019, is now reserve plenty, and so many reserves exist that the NY Fed will start draining them with reverse repos. Reserve balances will continue to grow this year thanks to QE purchases and an expected decline in the balance of the federal government's transaction account at the Federal Reserve.
Federal Reserve Rebukes Hawkish Rumors; Reaffirms Support
It has been a busy past 12 months for the Federal Reserve (Fed), after the onset of the global pandemic prompted historic stimulus from monetary policymakers. With the economy showing signs of being in the early stages of expansion, some have speculated that the Fed may begin to slow the pace of its asset purchases. Recent comments from some Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members that have hinted that the Fed’s bond buying program could be reduced by the end of the year, has signaled that other policymakers may be thinking that way, too. Adding fuel to the speculation, the 10-year Treasury yield has been climbing, breaking above 1% for the first time since March 2020 as the economy has expanded. Meanwhile, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, breakeven inflation rates—the yield difference between Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and nominal Treasuries—have risen to levels not seen since 2018, suggesting that inflation expectations are heating up, although levels still remain largely benign.
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
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Amazon.com, Inc. -
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, February 2, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $7.05 per share on revenue of $120.36 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $10.45 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 88% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.96% with revenue increasing by 37.65%. Short interest has increased by 25.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.7% above its 200 day moving average of $2,977.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, January 15, 2021 there was some notable buying of 6,433 contracts of the $3,200.00 call expiring on Friday, February 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.5% move in recent quarters.
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Tuesday, February 2, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.22 per share on revenue of $32.00 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.51 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 21.05% with revenue increasing by 37.98%. Short interest has decreased by 15.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 12.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.0% above its 200 day moving average of $251.21. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, January 20, 2021 there was some notable buying of 24,974 contracts of the $280.00 call expiring on Friday, March 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.4% move in recent quarters.
Pfizer, Inc. (PFE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Tuesday, February 2, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.45 per share on revenue of $12.85 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 18.18% with revenue increasing by 1.28%. The stock has drifted lower by 3.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.3% below its 200 day moving average of $36.75. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, January 11, 2021 there was some notable buying of 31,716 contracts of the $42.00 call expiring on Friday, February 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.9% move in recent quarters.
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, February 2, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.10 per share on revenue of $22.78 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.47% with revenue increasing by 10.75%. Short interest has decreased by 2.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.1% above its 200 day moving average of $142.04. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, January 27, 2021 there was some notable buying of 2,756 contracts of the $155.00 call expiring on Friday, February 5, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 8.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.8% move in recent quarters.
Pinterest, Inc. (PINS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, February 4, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.32 per share on revenue of $645.61 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.37 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of approximately $640.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 68.42% with revenue increasing by 61.44%. Short interest has decreased by 15.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 64.5% above its 200 day moving average of $41.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, January 13, 2021 there was some notable buying of 6,091 contracts of the $75.00 call expiring on Friday, September 17, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 19.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 20.5% move in recent quarters.
PayPal (PYPL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Wednesday, February 3, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.01 per share on revenue of $6.07 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.14 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 82% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $1.01 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 16.09% with revenue increasing by 22.35%. Short interest has decreased by 18.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 31.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.4% above its 200 day moving average of $186.88. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, January 11, 2021 there was some notable buying of 5,514 contracts of the $230.00 put expiring on Friday, March 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 8.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.1% move in recent quarters.
Snap Inc. (SNAP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Thursday, February 4, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.07 per share on revenue of $846.00 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $824.00 million to $841.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 240.00% with revenue increasing by 50.83%. Short interest has increased by 4.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 51.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 69.3% above its 200 day moving average of $31.26. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, January 21, 2021 there was some notable buying of 13,726 contracts of the $50.00 put expiring on Friday, February 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 16.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 18.4% move in recent quarters.
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, February 2, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $15.89 per share on revenue of $44.09 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $17.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 3.52% with revenue decreasing by 4.31%. Short interest has decreased by 16.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.9% above its 200 day moving average of $1,562.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, January 20, 2021 there was some notable buying of 2,312 contracts of the $1,900.00 call expiring on Friday, March 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 6.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.7% move in recent quarters.
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Tuesday, February 2, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.01 per share on revenue of $48.59 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.03 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 97.56% with revenue decreasing by 27.66%. Short interest has decreased by 5.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 38.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.4% above its 200 day moving average of $41.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, January 14, 2021 there was some notable buying of 28,135 contracts of the $55.00 call expiring on Friday, March 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.8% move in recent quarters.
Ford Motor Company (F) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, February 4, 2021. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.07 per share on revenue of $32.89 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 158.33% with revenue decreasing by 17.18%. Short interest has decreased by 0.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 28.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 41.1% above its 200 day moving average of $7.46. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, January 20, 2021 there was some notable buying of 120,718 contracts of the $12.00 call expiring on Friday, February 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 9.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.1% move in recent quarters.
Earning report: It slowed down a bit from December which I attribute to the holidays break. Still quite happy with the result, and I got another £180 pending. I started using Intellizoom and joined Bunnyfoot this month. I am based in London, UK and dedicating about 2/3 hours a day, 5 days a week to working on Beermoney.
dscout: This is the app where I have earned the most amount of money. It consists of small research projects where you are asked some questions on a subject in particular over a few days. Some of them you type to answer, some of them you have to answer in a short video. They pay through Paypal within 10 days of the mission being completed. You might take a few attempts to land your first mission, but once you get accepted for one, they'll start rolling in. Just make sure you check it often and apply to all available missions. They don't have a referral program.
Neevo: Mostly transcription jobs. There was some trouble with job validation a few months back but I think it is fixed now. I got most of the money I was entitled to anyways and I keep working on it whenever there is a project available. They don't have a referral program.
Prolific: University research surveys. They are usually short and there is also recruitments for more lengthy (and better paid) studies.
Userlytics: This is a UX testing app. You are given an app or webpage to try out and your screen gets recorded alongside with your voice while you navigate the page and speak your thoughts. A 20 minute session usually pays USD 10. They don't have a referral program.
Intellizoom: Similar to Userlytics but the tasks are way shorter. It could be sorting cards into categories, speaking your thoughts out loud while looking at a webpage, or giving your opinoion or UX. They don't have a referral program.
UserTesting: Another UX testing app like Userlytics. You are given an app or webpage to try out and your screen gets recorded alongside with your voice while you navigate the page and speak your thoughts. A 20 minute session usually pays USD 10. They don't have a referral program.
Swagbucks: Pretty sure everyone knows this one but for the ones who don't Swagbucks is a site that lets you earn money by completing surveys, offers, playing games, watching videos, etc
Streetbees: Decent paid short surveys, they usually ask you to take pictures. I have also done some pet food trials with them so they're good to get some freebies. Ref Code: 74271L (they'll ask you when you're signing up)
Qmee: Very similar to Swagbucks, but with instant payouts via PayPal.
Roamler: An invite-only mystery shopping app. The tasks are varied, sometimes you have to take some pictures in a supermarket, sometimes you have to purchase a product to test at home and then give an honest review. It is invite-only so if you are interested DM me your email address.
Slicethepie: Slicethepie is a review site primarily focused on music. No special musical skill or knowledge is required as the site wants the opinion of the wide general public.
Measure App: Easy and quick surveys.
Askable: It is a market research site. It usually puts you in contact with researchers for video calls where you'll be discussing a particular subject. Payment ranges from £15-£50 per hour.
VocalViews: Exactly the same as Askable, just a different platform. They don't have a referral program.
User Interviews: It is the same system as Askable and VocalViews. They don't have a referral program but you can refer people to particular projects. Usually pay in Amazon Gift Cards.
Take Part in Research: Another focus group recruitment page. Same system as Askable and VocalViews. They don't have a referral program.
Research Opinions: Another focus group recruitment page. Same system as Askable and VocalViews. They don't have a referral program.
Research Helper: Another focus group recruitment page. Same system as Askable and VocalViews. They don't have a referral program.
Bunnyfoot: Another focus group recruitment page. Same system as Askable and VocalViews. They don't have a referral program. They always pay £50 straight to your bank account.
UserTribe: A mix in between UX Testing and Focus Groups. They usually recruit via Facebook Ads. They don't have a referral program.
Panel Opinion: A mix in between surveys and Focus Groups.
GFK Smoke or Vape Panel: A panel for smokers. They send you a survey every 4 weeks. They don't have a referral program.
Storewards: This mobile app pays you for uploading your receipts.
Transperfect: Not too sure what this one is all about yet. They paid me £1 for taking some pictures.
Consumer Pulse: Report your weekly spend for pay!
Panel App: They pay you for keeping your location on and answering some questions depending on where you go to.
Remotasks: You’ll be tagging images, transcribing audio tapes, moderating content, and so much more. You’ll need to take a few exams in order to unlock the different categories on the site. Once you’ve unlocked a category, there are plenty of different tasks you can complete. If you take all the exams on the site, there is a large variety of work to choose from. They pay via Paypal every Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with no minimum.
Jisp: Jisp is a free app for shopping, saving money, finding deals & sharing. Sign up with my promo code YVCD6E & get 50p.
Hey Armchair Psychologists! We finally made it! The People and The Rankers have spoken and we have our results! They are queens, who are ranked, on a spreadsheet, in an order I am looking at with confusion. But they are here! Actually, one group was mostly right and one group was... interesting. I'll let you decide which is which. Some facts before we get to the results:
I received entries from all 8 rankers and 29 members. I did not mix the results together, so there are actually two sets of rankings below.
Violet Chachki was the most popular answer to which queen made it too far in the rankdown. Other common answers were: Crystal Methyd, Aquaria, Sharon Needles, and S2 Raven.
There wasn't a single common response to which queen went home too early, but some fairly common answers were: AS3 Shangela, AS1 Raven, S3 Manila Luzon, and S7 Ginger Minj. There were too many single answers to list them all. Edit: Ahem, I forgot an important queen. DJ Nina Flowers left far too soon.
So without further ado... the results!
The Public's Rankings
14th Place - Sharon Needles (Season 4 Winner)
Average Placement:11.45
Number of Members Ranking 1st: 0 (Highest Placement was 5th)
Number of Members Ranking 14th: 11
13th Place - Aquaria (Season 10 Winner)
Average Placement: 10.86
Number of Members Placing 1st: 0 (Highest Placement was 2nd)
Number of Members Placing 14th: 6
12th Place - AS5 Shea Coulee (All Stars 5 Winner)
Average Placement: 9.41
Number of Members Placing 1st: 1
Number of Members Placing 14th: 1
11th Place - The Vivienne (Drag Race UK Season 1 Winner)
Average Placement: 9.34
Number of Members Placing 1st: 1
Number of Members Placing 14th: 4
10th Place - Tyra Sanchez (Season 2 Winner)
Average Placement: 9.03
Number of Members Placing 1st: 1
Number of Members Placing 14th: 2
9th Place - Raja (Season 3 Winner)
Average Placement: 8.69
Number of Members Placing 1st: 0 (Highest Placement was 3rd)
Number of Members Placing 14th: 1
8th Place - AS4 Monique Heart (All Stars 4 Finalist)
Average Placement: 7.93
Number of Members Placing 1st: 1
Number of Members Placing 14th: 0 (Lowest Placement was 13th)
7th Place - Bianca Del Rio (Season 6 Winner)
Average Placement: 7.72
Number of Members Placing 1st: 2
Number of Members Placing 14th: 2
6th Place - AS2 Alaska (All Stars 2 Winner)
Average Placement: 6.52
Number of Members Placing 1st: 3
Number of Members Placing 14th: 1
5th Place - AS3 BenDeLaCreme (All Stars 3 6th Place)
Average Placement: 5.14
Number of Members Placing 1st: 6
Number of Members Placing 14th: 0 (Lowest Placement was 12th)
4th Place - Jinkx Monsoon (Season 5 Winner)
Average Placement: 5.03
Number of Members Placing 1st: 3
Number of Members Placing 14th: 0 (Lowest Placement was 12th)
3rd Place - Jaida Essence Hall (Season 12 Winner)
Average Placement: 5.00
Number of Members Placing 1st: 2
Number of Members Placing 14th: 0 (Lowest Placement was 13th)
2nd Place - Bob the Drag Queen (Season 8 Winner)
Average Placement: 4.45
Number of Members Placing 1st: 7
Number of Members Placing 14th: 1
1st Place - S9 Shea Coulee (Season 9 Finalist)
Average Placement: 4.41
Number of Members Placing 1st: 2
Number of Members Placing 14th: 0 (Lowest Placement was 12th)
Congratulations to Season 9 Shea on finally winning a crown! Too bad none of this counts. The REAL rankings are below. I have included anonymous quotes about each queen, pulled from the comments from the rankers. Some have been edited for clarity and brevity.
The Ranker's Top 14
14th Place - Aquaria (Season 10 Winner)
Average Placement:11.38
Number of Members Ranking 1st: 0 (Highest Placement was 8th)
Number of Members Ranking 14th: 2
What the Rankers said:
~"Top 13 is good enough for her." ~"Surprised everyone by being likeable and winning handily" ~"Aquaria's this high in part because of her keen eye for fashion and in part because she played the Drag Race game very well. She turned her weakness (a lack of eloquence and on the spot comedy chops) into an asset with her character choices, and she also started drama that was small enough to be quashed within the season while still being entertaining. Would I have liked to see Asia take the S10 crown? Yes. Can I fault Aquaria for her run? Not really." ~"Let me ask you a very fair question: why is Aquaria in the top 14? The Snatch Game was great. The Ball was great. That’s all. Asia should’ve won evil twins. She had some killer runways but... she’s a rich fashion twink from NYC with a huge connection of designers. Of course she had good runways." 13th Place - Sharon Needles (Season 4 Winner)
Average Placement: 10.88
Number of Members Placing 1st: 0 (Highest Placement was 6th)
Number of Members Placing 14th: 1
What the Rankers said:
~"She had a good run but 4 challenges wins is a bit much. She was lucky that the challenge she won didn't had much stood out." ~"Oh, Sharon. If only the show’s editors could have followed you around in real life." ~"Good or whatever, a few iconic looks but some fucking bad ones too." ~"If we were allowed to consider the queens outside the show, Sharon wouldn't be in this top 14. While she was a decent competitor, I think that season 4 was much stronger reality TV than it was a competition, and Sharon won a lot because the other queens just weren't strong competition (not knocking their drag skills though)." 12th Place - AS5 Shea Coulee (All Stars 5 Winner)
Average Placement: 10.38
Number of Members Placing 1st: 0 (Highest Placement was 3rd)
Number of Members Placing 14th: 2
What the Rankers said:
~"While she did deserve to win the whole season, as far as challenges go she really only deserved to win the two she ended up winning. She was fine in most challenges, but was only the best of the bunch twice. Her runways were consistently fantastic, combining fashion, meta references, and afrofuturism flawlessly. Both her lipsyncs were strong too." ~"I feel like she showed growth between the seasons and went onto AS5 having genuinely improved as a competitor. Her fashion was always good, but she stepped it up a LOT for her return (especially that stunning giant cotton candy pink finale gown and her bedazzled body suit for Love the Skin You're In). You gotta love a queen who takes the note." ~"I love her but should've not made this far. There were queens who did better and were eliminated before her." 10th/11th Place - TIE - Bianca Del Rio (Season 6 Winner)/The Vivienne (Drag Race UK Season 1 Winner)
Average Placement: 10.00
Number of Members Placing 1st: 0 (Bianca's Highest Placement was 8th/The Vivienne's Highest Placement was 7th)
Number of Members Placing 14th: 1 (The Vivienne Only/Bianca's Lowest Placement was 13th)
What the Rankers said about Bianca:
~"Look I know she did really good or whatever and I'm not supposed to base anything on off-show stuff but I watched Hurricane Bianca Two in full and I can't rank her higher, sorry." Sorry I thought this was hilarious and needed to include it. ~"A great queen and an obvious winner, but she did not show a lot of versatility. She’s lucky S6 was riddled with acting challenges. Not sure how she would have fared on an actual lipsynch finale." ~"Bianca gets touted as one of the series's strongest comedy queens, and yet of the three challenges she won, two of them were looks challenges. Yes, she killed the standup, and yes, she did well in a lot of the other performance challenges, and yes, she was (extremely) consistent on the runway. I just don't know that I found her run all that exciting. There are other queens on this list (and some not in this top 14) who had moments during their seasons where they did something I wouldn't have expected from them. I don't think I can say that about Bianca, but her general level of polish and competency gets her to this point." ~"Her run doesn’t age well, but in the bubble of season 6, she is an undisputed champ. Well, unless your name is Methany."
What the Rankers said about The Vivienne:
~"Amazing run and great winner, she really set the tone for Drag Race UK." ~"stomped the competition, sorry Divina, served great looks, was the funniest queen from the cast, sorry Baga and is a great representation of british drag, she can do conceptual/out of the box looks and she can serve classic british fashion with her smart humour." ~"Obviously The Vivienne crushed her season. However, I wonder how much production pushed her, given her prior status as the UK DR ambassador. I'm also not a fan of Trump impersonations; while hers was definitely spot-on, it lowkey made me uncomfortable to see someone so heinous being rewarded as a source of comedy. Her runways were stunning though, especially her finale look." ~"DRUK1 had a great cast of nine charismatic and talented queens, including The Vivienne, who rightfully won. That being said, as great as the cast was, on the show that didn’t translate as well. The Vivienne felt like a big fish in a small pond, who didn’t have much competition. She was consistently in the top, which can be accredited somewhat to a mixture of her doing well and her castmates doing lackluster." 9th Place - Tyra Sanchez (Season 2 Winner)
Average Placement: 9.50
Number of Members Placing 1st: 0 (Highest Placement was 6th)
Number of Members Placing 14th: 0 (Lowest Placement was 13th)
What the Rankers said:
~"Won, won by a long shot, but not to be very basic but I found her offputting. Bad Beyonce acapella is illegal." ~"Raven was robbed of a chance because there was no way she would have won when they casted Tyra. Her only real competition was Jessica and she was 6th. Tyra was the absolute best in every challenge she won and was great in the others (Snatch Game included because at least she had 2 jokes), except the singing one and even if she didn't have immunity she would have been safe because Juju and Sahara were horrible." ~"Tyra Sanchez is a flawless bitch and it’s a shame she quit drag." ~"Tyra was the justified and correct winner of S2, end of discussion. I fully believe that when you consider the queens' lives outside the show, Tyra's run on the show is maybe the singularly most impressive of any contestant. She went onto season 2 as a 21 year old Black gay single parent living in Florida, homeless and broke and sleeping on her drag mother's couch (per the show), and proceeded to stomp all the other queens. The only challenges she didn't ace were SG (where she was, at worst, 5th or 6th out of 9) and Rocker Chicks (she said in an AMA on the drama sub that her performance in that challenge was inspired by, and I quote, "immunity"). An icon, we have to stan." 8th Place - Raja (Season 3 Winner)
Average Placement: 7.88
Number of Members Placing 1st: 0 (Highest Placement was 6th)
Number of Members Placing 14th: 0 (Lowest Placement was 12th)
What the Rankers said:
~"Raja was the second ever fashion queen behind Rebecca, and that’s a well-earned title. Her looks were consistently conceptual and surprising. She completely swept up the first episode (the first real episode I’m not counting the corny casting special) and racked up some wins under her belt." ~"The only queen who could challenge Bob for most commanding winning run from the show. Perez didn't even really need to leak anything, it was obvious from jump that Raja was the winner, baby." ~"the OG fashion queen, served some of the best looks from the show that would make even some designers outfits look ugly by comparison, served the best dress ever created on the work room (the money gown) and she was very funny for a fashion queen. Her low part were the makeover and the patriotic ad, my god what terrible performances on a challenge" ~"She won before she was even cast." 7th Place - AS3 BenDeLaCreme (All Stars 3 6th Place)
Average Placement: 6.75
Number of Members Placing 1st: 1
Number of Members Placing 14th: 1
What the Rankers said:
~"There's no doubt that she should win All Stars 3, to the point that it was unfair to the other queens to compete against her. She also did great tv with her self elimination. Different from the other queens on All Stars 3 and even some winners, none of her wins felt it was undeserving, you could say that Trixie may have won the Bacholerette or Girl Groups but BenDela was always the best or second on challenges" ~"If it were up to gladecleanspraylinen, she would be ranked lower than Elliott with 2 Ts." Note: this was NOT written by gladespraycleanlinen. ~"It is a truth universally acknowleged that if Ben hadn't self-eliminated, she would have won AS3. Ben's strength IMO is not just that she's quick and has sharp comedic instincts, but also that she's consistent and brings those instincts to every challenge..." ~"Great run but not top 10 because she quit so although she would easily win her season, it's kinda unfair to vote her top 10 against people that had to go all the way through." 6th Place - Jaida Essence Hall (Season 12 Winner)
Average Placement: 5.75
Number of Members Placing 1st: 1
Number of Members Placing 14th: 0 (Lowest Placement was 13th)
What the Rankers said:
~"Probably the best winner from recent seasons. Amazing run, even with production not favoriting her. Her lip sync was amazing. Total winner." ~"The essence of beauty. After a slow start, she shined and gave me a glimmer of hope she could be my hero to beat UwU Gigi Goode. I love her humility, versatility and her unexpected sense of humour. Just writing about her makes me smile! Her finale lipsynch were iconic and I'm sad we didn’t get to see more of her because of the pandemic." ~"Jaida looked flawless every single runway, aced basically every challenge except the one-woman show (where she was more or less sabotaged by [REDACTED]), destroyed her lipsyncs, and did it all while being humble, relatable, and fun in the werkroom. I genuinely think that Jaida would be a serious contender for an All Winners season, but more importantly, she's just fun to watch." ~"Perfection personified." 5th Place - AS4 Monique Heart (All Stars 4 Finalist)
Average Placement: 5.63
Number of Members Placing 1st: 0 (Highest Placement was 2nd)
Number of Members Placing 14th: 0 (Lowest Placement was 11th)
What the Rankers said:
~"My top non-winning run for obvious reasons. Sorry to those men (Monet and that other guy) but Monique should've gotten both of those crowns (and Trixie's crown) and worn them front-to-back like a mohawk." ~"AS4 Monique brought it in every challenge. In a fair world she would’ve won the Talent Show, Improv, Clubs, Makeover, and Acting. And honestly neither of her bottom placements were earned." ~"Bitch is stunning. Should've been the winner and all of her bottom placements were unfair not number one because although her wins her deserved she didn't dominated as much the season." ~"My favorite run of any queen on any season of any franchise. She was judged unfairly, and her absence from the top 2 remains CRIMINAL." 4th Place - S9 Shea Coulee (Season 9 Finalist)
Average Placement: 5.38
Number of Members Placing 1st: 1
Number of Members Placing 14th: 0 (Lowest Placement was 10th)
What the Rankers said:
~"No way she's not getting number one. Flawless performance, even with a lukewarm lip sync." ~"An actual robbery. Fuck you, RuPaul." ~"Shea in S9 has the distinction of being the only queen to win four challenges and deserve all four wins." ~"Name something and Shea Coulée excels at it. She is everything and was on top during all her season. We are talking about a season with some fierce competition. Shea crushed everything and I was convinced she was a shoo-in for the final victory. Man, was that final lipsynch twist painful to watch. Sasha won fair and square at the finale, but S9 as a whole was Shea’s to win." 3rd Place - AS2 Alaska (All Stars 2 Winner)
Average Placement: 4.50
Number of Members Placing 1st: 2
Number of Members Placing 14th: 1
What the Rankers said:
~"The most entertaining AS queen on an AS season. I think the AS twist did her a disservice bc it did sour her win somewhat. But it made for some great TV, and she won by a small landslide." ~"She came. She saw. She threw a tantrum to show vulnerability. She painted herself blue. She conquered." ~"Alaska on AS2 took a lot of the fun rougher edges of S5 Alaska and sanded them down until all that was left was vocal fry. Her sense of humor and commitment to the challenges is fun, and $10000 via Paypal is an iconic meme, but for a lot of AS2 it's like "oh yeah, and there's Alaska, doing great". Alaska is clearly a great queen, and there's a reason she won that season and is a huge fan favorite, but I just don't think her drag is for me. I just never really resonated with a lot of what she did, especially in her lipsyncs and runways on AS2." ~"Alaska had the most well-rounded run of any queen, ever. Nobody balanced camp, fashion, and uniqueness as well as she did. She downright won over half the challenges of the season." 2nd Place - Bob the Drag Queen (Season 8 Winner)
Average Placement: 3.75
Number of Members Placing 1st: 1
Number of Members Placing 14th: 0 (Lowest Placement was 6th)
What the Rankers said:
~"Best queen, best run, in a world with non-bullshit judging she would never have lipsynced. Yeah her makeup was suspicious but she was so GOOD. She'd win All-Winners, she's the best drag queen in the world that I'm aware of. Bob's the only valid winner of this rankdown." ~"The unofficial co-host of season 8." ~"Season 8 was her season. Her charisma is everything and even when she’s not doing great, you can’t take your eyes off her. Maybe I’ve got bad taste but I enjoy her fashion sense and her humour is amazing." ~"Bob's performance as Chocolate Chip Cookie in RuCo's Empire is one of the strongest performances any queen has ever given on the show, full stop. While her fashion has improved since S8, Bob's looks on the season were hit-or-miss. Also, while Bob was great in the comedy challenges, she didn't shine as much in some of the other weeks. Her highs are really, really high, but her lows are maybe a bit lower than some of the other queens on this list." 1st Place - Jinkx Monsoon (Season 5 Winner)
Average Placement: 3.25
Number of Members Placing 1st: 2
Number of Members Placing 14th: 0 (Lowest Placement was 7th)
What the Rankers said:
~"The most entertaining queen on the most entertaining season. Cheek contour aside, flawless victory." ~"Extreme bias because she is one of my favourites but she deserves the number queen from the show, she was the one who did great in every challenge except two and all of the challenges were different, everyone on season 5 was strong at one talent but lacked another, Jinkx was strong in 8 different talents (lip sync, acting, improv, singing, dancing, makeover, impersonating, writing jokes) and she was only weak in one thing that was sewing. So for me she takes the crown" ~"We've all seen season 5, we all know that Jinkx was hilarious in every single challenge. The only point where she really struggled was the Sugar Ball, and even then, it's more a case of Alaska and Roxxxy just killing it than Jinkx doing bad, per se. Her Little Edie SG was one of the first iconic SG performances, which is big by itself. If her runways had been better, she might have been #1." ~"8 weeks of high placements in a row. Sharon walked so that Jinkx could sprint while wearing black chalk as cheek contour." Congratulations to Season 5 Winner Jinkx Monsoon on winning the "official" rankdown! One last HUGE thank you to the rankers! I know I'm exhausted and I'm sure they are too. Clap for these hookers! Until next off-season, so long. u/MatronneGeorgia didn't know I was making cringe references the entire rankdown, so I armchair psychologist diagnose her with inner saboteur syndrome
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