Disclaimer: It is moronic to buy FDs. That is not the way to consistently build wealth. The very reason FDs pay off such huge returns is because on average their probability of expiring worthless is 99%. If you’re moronic enough to buy FDs with me, only do it with money that you are willing to literally set on fire. Actual fire. There are plenty of safer puts on DASH that will pay obscene returns this year..
TLDR: I believe DoorDash (DASH) is the greatest short opportunity of the year, and what’s more, rather than just having a general feeling, there are specific timetables enabling us to profit bigly. The company even admits themselves that they have peaked as a company.

Analysis:

“Food delivery with third-party apps like Grubhub and Uber Eats is booming, but no one's making money.” – Business Insider.

DoorDash is wildly overvalued. This is true by any metric, were it in essentially any industry. Add to that its in food delivery, which is a horrific, no margin industry in what has become a commoditized business and offers essentially no differentiation with its competitors. There is near zero differentiation between Uber Eats, Postmates, Caviar, Grubhub, DASH, or any local provider. In Austin we have Favor, for example. And nobody cares which company delivers their food, they only care which one does it cheapest.
If you view stock (as you should) as buying the entire business as an owner, how much would you be willing to pay for an undifferentiated company in a no margin commoditized business that has peaked (see below for more on that)? Because it’s currently selling for an insane $56 billion. Outrageous.
So how can we get a banana for scale to understand what that $56 billion means in terms of valuation?
Well, all of DoorDash’s competitors have either sold at or are trading at, or raised money at, a capitalization of 3x to 6x sales. DASH is trading at an absolutely insane 20+ x sales.
Just six months ago Postmates was acquired for $2.65 billion which put it at 4x sales. At 4x sales, DASH would trade at $32.
DASH used to be the business leader in this industry, but over the past 2-3 years Grubhub has exploded in size to take on nearly the same 33% of market share, and after Uber Eats bought Postmates, it too now has about a third of market share. So you now have three giants of roughly equal size battling it out in a business in which customers don’t give a motherloving frick about branding.

But don’t take my word for it on valuation, take smart money’s word

DoorDash raised money just a couple months ago at a $16 billion valuation. That is truly a stunning fact. In just a few months the WSB type day trading call buyers have bid this company all the way up to $56 billion from $16 billion without any material change to the business and completely ignoring the coming vaccine-induced reopening of restaurants. Again, the stock trades for a 300% markup to its recent smart money capital raise based on nothing but unfounded hopium.
You don’t have to take my word for it, your beloved Jim Cramer has even said the same thing, in his own idiotic, covering my ass, round about say nothing way. “It’s true that people using market orders took DoorDash to levels that maybe ... were far higher than they thought they’d have paid.” - Jim Cramer
I don’t care about his commentary, but you people seem to love him, so there you go. 😘

The Company, according to The Company, has peaked. It’s over.

There are two extremely interesting things buried in the S-1 we’re going to get into in a moment. One of them is that you don’t have to take my word for it that this company’s business has peaked. The company says so itself in its own S-1.

The circumstances that have accelerated the increase in Total Orders stemming from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic may not continue in the future, and we expect the growth rate in Total Orders to decline in future periods.

To put it simply, COVID numbers are falling, vaccines are rolling out at an impressive 1-2 million per day which puts our stated goal of 100 million vaccinated in 100 days within attainable reach. The economy will be opening up, people will want to be getting out of the house, restaurants will be reopening, and there will be huge pent up demand by people who have had extraordinarily high savings rates over the last year. Big chains will no longer have the need to get help from third party delivery apps at a 15% markup. We all know this is the case, and DoorDash even stated as much in its own filing. This stock is toast.

”Delivery via smartphone is one of those venture-funded sectors where business executives appear to have taken seriously the old joke about “losing money on every transaction but making it up on volume.” – New York Magazine

“DoorDash and Grubhub and Uber Eats... it’s a tough business for them. It’s very competitive. I think the business model is hard.” - Panera Bread CEO.

And Now the Fun Part

There are some wild share lockup expirations coming up. For those that don’t know, when you get these massive IPOs, insiders aren’t actually able to sell their shares on IPO day. They are locked up and the insiders just have to hope for the best that the stock will not lose value over the coming months. If the stock skyrockets in value, but the insiders know the business is trash or has peaked, you get the perfect recipe for a rush for the exits.
I love playing share lockups. I make a lot of money on them by selling spreads. A common question I get when I post them here is “if you know a drop is coming, why doesn’t the market just price it in?” The answer is because it can’t. No matter what the share price does, the lockup expiration date is the lockup expiration date. Insiders have to wait until that date, and it doesn’t matter whether the stock falls 0%, 5%, or 50%, they will all have to wait until that day to sell.
DoorDash has two share lockup expirations coming.
The first lockup expiration is an early release (heh) and hits 90 days after the Dec. 9 IPO, or around March 9, as long as the stock trades 25% higher than the IPO price for five out of 10 consecutive days of trading. That is to say, so long as DASH trades above $127.50 right before March 9, the lockup is triggered. The good news for you with this insane run up in price is that if the lockup isn’t triggered, it means the stock has already fallen from $190 to $127. It’s important to know March 9 is not a hard date exactly...some insiders can be allowed to go a few days prior. Also if they release earnings early the lockup could potentially occur at the end of this month.
I was talking to some folks on WSB about the lockup last week, and someone mentioned they thought only 20% of insider shares will be eligible. DoorDash's management and board members can sell up to 20% of their shares in that first wave, but other insiders can sell up to 40%. This means 113 million shares are eligible for sale in early lockup expiration. DoorDash’s daily volume is only 3-4 million shares. The current public float is roughly 123 million shares. This means you’re about to suddenly double the number of shares on the market.
Door Dash’s second lock-up expiration hits either 180 days after its IPO, which means around June 9 (more or less), or after the release of its first-quarter earnings report (whichever is earlier), and will free up “all remaining shares” according to the S-1, which if my math is correct is roughly 50 million shares.
These two expirations could spark violent sell-offs throughout the year.

Positions

FDs

I never buy FDs. I’ve never once bought them in my entire life. But I’m putting 1% of my portfolio into them on DASH because I’m confident big drops are coming. Unfortunately for you guys, the stock has already started falling this past month from its 🤡-level highs in the $200s, and worse yet the pricing/IV of all options has gotten more expensive. This means, I’m sorry to say, that you’re not going to find any options trading for pennies, or even anything less than $2. For your FDs, I recommend you buy puts at whatever the lowest strikes are that actually have any volume. The strikes go as low as $75, but most days show 0 volume and of course the bid/ask spread is enormous. There has been some volume at $95 recently, and you can get the $75s if you’re patient enough and willing to pay up for them. Expiration dates would be any time in mid to late March (again, looking for whatever has volume) so that it occurs after lockup 1, and the August 20s, which unfortunately are the closest expiration to the lockup occurring around June 9. I wish there was a closer expiration, but hey, more time for the stock to collapse. Plus you could always sell your puts after the June 9 drop with lots of theta meat still left on the bone.

Puts

I own March 12 $160 puts. I think the stock will drop healthily below this, but IV is high. I’m normally taking big swings with spreads, so when I buy puts outright, which is rare, I want to play it a little safer.
I also own the August 20 $145 puts.
And finally, I have six figure credit call spreads open at the $175 level. For newbies, this simply means I: Bought (yes bought) the March 12 $175 calls, and Sold the $172.50 calls.
I went huge on these because all I need is for DoorDash to trade below $172.50 after the lockup expiration and I’ll be having a Merry Christmas. That’s as close to risk free gains as you’re ever going to see in your life.

Bull case

The only bull case is that we’re in a raging, record-setting bull market and all stonks go up. The economy is opening back up, vaccines are rolling out, and stonks go up. But I think if you look at the DASH chart you can see that that is already starting to not be the case.

What are the negatives?

I plagiarized liberally from an old Citron Research report, although it doesn’t even mention share lockups. Yes, that Citron. For those of you who are newer members, I will tell you this; the little smart money social circles in and around WSB do not hate CItron, Hindenburg, or any other short selling firms. We respect them and welcome bearish cases on high flying stocks. Any intelligent trader does. It’s only the pump and dumpers who have a hatred for short reports. You should welcome contrarian views.

Parting Words.

I would welcome anyone pointing out where they think I may be wrong. I don’t care about saving face, I care about not losing money. If I’m wrong, I want to know it. I welcome constructive criticism.

Give Me One More TLDR At The End

This stock is going to collapse because it’s wildly overvalued, employees got in super cheap with shares they are waiting to sell, know the business has peaked, and they want to cash the fahk out. So swallow the high IV and buy puts today as fast as you can.
Love you guys.

Disclaimer: It is moronic to buy FDs. That is not the way to consistently build wealth. The very reason FDs pay off such huge returns is because on average their probability of expiring worthless is 99%. If you’re moronic enough to buy FDs with me, only do it with money that you are willing to literally set on fire. Actual fire. There are plenty of safer puts on DASH that will pay obscene returns this year..
TLDR: I believe DoorDash (DASH) is the greatest short opportunity of the year, and what’s more, rather than just having a general feeling, there are specific timetables enabling us to profit bigly. The company even admits themselves that they have peaked as a company.

Analysis:

“Food delivery with third-party apps like Grubhub and Uber Eats is booming, but no one's making money.” – Business Insider.

DoorDash is wildly overvalued. This is true by any metric, were it in essentially any industry. Add to that its in food delivery, which is a horrific, no margin industry in what has become a commoditized business and offers essentially no differentiation with its competitors. There is near zero differentiation between Uber Eats, Postmates, Caviar, Grubhub, DASH, or any local provider. In Austin we have Favor, for example. And nobody cares which company delivers their food, they only care which one does it cheapest.
If you view stock (as you should) as buying the entire business as an owner, how much would you be willing to pay for an undifferentiated company in a no margin commoditized business that has peaked (see below for more on that)? Because it’s currently selling for an insane $56 billion. Outrageous.
So how can we get a banana for scale to understand what that $56 billion means in terms of valuation?
Well, all of DoorDash’s competitors have either sold at or are trading at, or raised money at, a capitalization of 3x to 6x sales. DASH is trading at an absolutely insane 20+ x sales.
Just six months ago Postmates was acquired for $2.65 billion which put it at 4x sales. At 4x sales, DASH would trade at $32.
DASH used to be the business leader in this industry, but over the past 2-3 years Grubhub has exploded in size to take on nearly the same 33% of market share, and after Uber Eats bought Postmates, it too now has about a third of market share. So you now have three giants of roughly equal size battling it out in a business in which customers don’t give a motherloving frick about branding.

But don’t take my word for it on valuation, take smart money’s word

DoorDash raised money just a couple months ago at a $16 billion valuation. That is truly a stunning fact. In just a few months the WSB type day trading call buyers have bid this company all the way up to $56 billion from $16 billion without any material change to the business and completely ignoring the coming vaccine-induced reopening of restaurants. Again, the stock trades for a 300% markup to its recent smart money capital raise based on nothing but unfounded hopium.
You don’t have to take my word for it, your beloved Jim Cramer has even said the same thing, in his own idiotic, covering my ass, round about say nothing way. “It’s true that people using market orders took DoorDash to levels that maybe ... were far higher than they thought they’d have paid.” - Jim Cramer
I don’t care about his commentary, but you people seem to love him, so there you go. 😘

The Company, according to The Company, has peaked. It’s over.

There are two extremely interesting things buried in the S-1 we’re going to get into in a moment. One of them is that you don’t have to take my word for it that this company’s business has peaked. The company says so itself in its own S-1.

The circumstances that have accelerated the increase in Total Orders stemming from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic may not continue in the future, and we expect the growth rate in Total Orders to decline in future periods.

To put it simply, COVID numbers are falling, vaccines are rolling out at an impressive 1-2 million per day which puts our stated goal of 100 million vaccinated in 100 days within attainable reach. The economy will be opening up, people will want to be getting out of the house, restaurants will be reopening, and there will be huge pent up demand by people who have had extraordinarily high savings rates over the last year. Big chains will no longer have the need to get help from third party delivery apps at a 15% markup. We all know this is the case, and DoorDash even stated as much in its own filing. This stock is toast.

”Delivery via smartphone is one of those venture-funded sectors where business executives appear to have taken seriously the old joke about “losing money on every transaction but making it up on volume.” – New York Magazine

“DoorDash and Grubhub and Uber Eats... it’s a tough business for them. It’s very competitive. I think the business model is hard.” - Panera Bread CEO.

And Now the Fun Part

There are some wild share lockup expirations coming up. For those that don’t know, when you get these massive IPOs, insiders aren’t actually able to sell their shares on IPO day. They are locked up and the insiders just have to hope for the best that the stock will not lose value over the coming months. If the stock skyrockets in value, but the insiders know the business is trash or has peaked, you get the perfect recipe for a rush for the exits.
I love playing share lockups. I make a lot of money on them by selling spreads. A common question I get when I post them here is “if you know a drop is coming, why doesn’t the market just price it in?” The answer is because it can’t. No matter what the share price does, the lockup expiration date is the lockup expiration date. Insiders have to wait until that date, and it doesn’t matter whether the stock falls 0%, 5%, or 50%, they will all have to wait until that day to sell.
DoorDash has two share lockup expirations coming.
The first lockup expiration is an early release (heh) and hits 90 days after the Dec. 9 IPO, or around March 9, as long as the stock trades 25% higher than the IPO price for five out of 10 consecutive days of trading. That is to say, so long as DASH trades above $127.50 right before March 9, the lockup is triggered. The good news for you with this insane run up in price is that if the lockup isn’t triggered, it means the stock has already fallen from $190 to $127. It’s important to know March 9 is not a hard date exactly...some insiders can be allowed to go a few days prior. Also if they release earnings early the lockup could potentially occur at the end of this month.
I was talking to some folks on WSB about the lockup last week, and someone mentioned they thought only 20% of insider shares will be eligible. DoorDash's management and board members can sell up to 20% of their shares in that first wave, but other insiders can sell up to 40%. This means 113 million shares are eligible for sale in early lockup expiration. DoorDash’s daily volume is only 3-4 million shares. The current public float is roughly 123 million shares. This means you’re about to suddenly double the number of shares on the market.
Door Dash’s second lock-up expiration hits either 180 days after its IPO, which means around June 9 (more or less), or after the release of its first-quarter earnings report (whichever is earlier), and will free up “all remaining shares” according to the S-1, which if my math is correct is roughly 50 million shares.
These two expirations could spark violent sell-offs throughout the year.

Positions

FDs

I never buy FDs. I’ve never once bought them in my entire life. But I’m putting 1% of my portfolio into them on DASH because I’m confident big drops are coming. Unfortunately for you guys, the stock has already started falling this past month from its 🤡-level highs in the $200s, and worse yet the pricing/IV of all options has gotten more expensive. This means, I’m sorry to say, that you’re not going to find any options trading for pennies, or even anything less than $2. For your FDs, I recommend you buy puts at whatever the lowest strikes are that actually have any volume. The strikes go as low as $75, but most days show 0 volume and of course the bid/ask spread is enormous. There has been some volume at $95 recently, and you can get the $75s if you’re patient enough and willing to pay up for them. Expiration dates would be any time in mid to late March (again, looking for whatever has volume) so that it occurs after lockup 1, and the August 20s, which unfortunately are the closest expiration to the lockup occurring around June 9. I wish there was a closer expiration, but hey, more time for the stock to collapse. Plus you could always sell your puts after the June 9 drop with lots of theta meat still left on the bone.

Puts

I own March 12 $160 puts. I think the stock will drop healthily below this, but IV is high. I’m normally taking big swings with spreads, so when I buy puts outright, which is rare, I want to play it a little safer.
I also own the August 20 $145 puts.
And finally, I have six figure credit call spreads open at the $175 level. For newbies, this simply means I: Bought (yes bought) the March 12 $175 calls, and Sold the $172.50 calls.
I went huge on these because all I need is for DoorDash to trade below $172.50 after the lockup expiration and I’ll be having a Merry Christmas. That’s as close to risk free gains as you’re ever going to see in your life.

Bull case

The only bull case is that we’re in a raging, record-setting bull market and all stonks go up. The economy is opening back up, vaccines are rolling out, and stonks go up. But I think if you look at the DASH chart you can see that that is already starting to not be the case.

What are the negatives?

I plagiarized liberally from an old Citron Research report, although it doesn’t even mention share lockups. Yes, that Citron. For those of you who are newer members, I will tell you this; the little smart money social circles in and around WSB do not hate CItron, Hindenburg, or any other short selling firms. We respect them and welcome bearish cases on high flying stocks. Any intelligent trader does. It’s only the pump and dumpers who have a hatred for short reports. You should welcome contrarian views.

Parting Words.

I would welcome anyone pointing out where they think I may be wrong. I don’t care about saving face, I care about not losing money. If I’m wrong, I want to know it. I welcome constructive criticism.

Give Me One More TLDR At The End

This stock is going to collapse because it’s wildly overvalued, employees got in super cheap with shares they are waiting to sell, know the business has peaked, and they want to cash the fahk out. So swallow the high IV and buy puts today as fast as you can.
Love you guys.

October 31st, 1985, Soviet Union. Ария / Aria release their debut album Мания величия / Mania velichia, thus marking the birth of Russian heavy metal. This record was so well executed and so different from everything else that was being performed in the Soviet rock scene at the time that Aria saw immediate success. The group was about to be catapulted to fame and glory, leaving the door open for other talented groups to soon follow suit.
 

Introduction: Rock Music in the Soviet Union

Hello and welcome to my primer about Russian metal, from the legendary groups that started it all to today’s torchbearers that keep the flame alive. Although, as explained in the introductory paragraph, Russian heavy metal was born with Aria's Mania velichia, there are over two decades of context prior to 1985 that must be briefly explored in order to get a fuller picture of the scene in general and how it was influenced.
 
As Beatlemania was sweeping the West in 1964, its ripples were felt in the East as well. A product of Western society, Beatles’ music was quickly outlawed in the Soviet Union as it was considered a threat to the Soviet way of life. Possession of their albums (as well as other Western musical works) could result in grave consequences for the offender, such as being ostracized from society; one day you’re quietly listening to A Hard Day's Night, the next all your friends give you the cold shoulder, as they’ve been advised to not interact with you.
 
Of course, try as hard as they might, the Soviet government was unable to completely suppress the dissemination of Western music within the Soviet borders. The black market thrived selling illegal music, with especially enterprising individuals coming up with ingenious ways of distributing it, such as музыка на рёбрах (Russian for “music on the bones”), 7-inch improvised recordings made from X-ray films. The music itself was obtained either through smuggling or through Western radio broadcasts.
 
And so, the Soviet people were able to, and very much did listen to the Beatles. The influence this group had on the genesis of the Soviet rock scene cannot be overstated, since many Soviet rock groups began their journey covering Beatles songs.
 
These groups, however, had little hope of ever achieving commercial success. In 1964, the state-owned record label Мелодия / Melodiya was founded, which quickly established a monopoly on recordings. Modern recording equipment was bought from the West and high quality studios were established all across the giant nation. As such, there were two types of musicians and musical groups: those working with Melodiya and the Soviet Ministry of Culture, and then everyone else. Needless to say, working with the Ministry of Culture would usually mean bending over backwards to accommodate the conservative elites. Many artists, particularly those playing rock such as Машина времени / Mashina vremeni and Åквариум / Akvarium, were thus forced to remain underground.
 
Unable to prevent rock from seeping into the minds of the Soviet people, the Soviet government eventually sought to control it, creating the famous Вокально-Инструментальный Ансамбль or ВИА (Russian for “Vocal-Instrumental Ensemble” or VIA). Becoming a VIA and working with the Soviet Ministry of Culture was the only viable way for a rock band to break into the mainstream. A VIA’s songs would be heavily scrutinized and censored, but thanks to Melodiya's monopoly on records, those that passed the test would be guaranteed successes. VIAs such as Цветы / Tsvety rose to great prominence during this time, their influence reaching all corners of the Soviet Union. Many musicians such as Aria's first manager, Виктор Векштейн / Viktor Vekshtein, were part of a VIA.
 
Next important topic: Russian bards. Not the medieval kind, mind you. “Bard” was a term used throughout the 60’s and 70’s to refer to poets who sung their verses accompanied by a simple acoustic guitar. The poetry was usually culturally relevant, with the bards singing about simple escapes from life or criticizing the government. I don’t think I need to explain that last category wasn’t too popular among the Soviet leadership. Nevertheless, many bards such as Владимир Высоцкий / Vladimir Vysotsky and Булат Окуджава / Bulat Okudzhava achieved a very popular status underground, with many Soviet people owning unofficial tapes or магнитизда́т (Russian for “tape publishing”) of their “music.” The reason that last word is in quotes is because the music itself was very much a secondary concern for bards, their lyrics being the meat and potatoes. This idea of giving lyrics extra special care and attention is a prominent theme in Russian music and metal would be no exception.
 
I’ll skim over the 70’s because I have a lot of metal bands I’d like to get to and every character is precious, but suffice it to say the underground rock and bard scene flourished, while the mainstream was dominated by VIAs. Some Western music was selectively allowed into the Soviet Union by the government, but already by this point many people were giving local bands as much attention as Western ones, such as the previously mentioned Mashina vremeni and Akvarium. Both of these were popular underground bands whose music was distributed via home-made tapes. Their popularity was solidified after the famous Tbilisi Rock Festival in 1980, in the capital of the Georgian SSR, the very first state-sanctioned rock festival/competition in the large nation; Mashina vremeni won first prize while Akvarium's antics earned their music a ban. Contrary to the expected, the state-sanctioned VIAs didn’t garner much attention. The public’s preference for the underground sound was clear and rock’s position in the Soviet Union was now solidified.
 
In 1981, the Leningrad Rock Club was established. Many had tried to open rock clubs over the years, unsuccessfully. The Soviet authorities, however, once again in an effort to control the development and spread of rock, allowed for the Leningrad Rock Club to operate under KGB supervision. Bands would have to audition before a commission to receive membership and permits to perform, their lyrics would often be censored and they couldn’t ever earn money performing. Nevertheless, by gathering many rock groups in one place and allowing them to mingle, quite the opposite effect of the Soviet authorities’ intentions was achieved and the rock scene quickly flourished, its influence reaching far and wide across the Soviet Union, very much including Moscow, where the Russian metal scene would be born a few years later.
 
At long last, 1985. Михаил Горбачёв / Mikhail Gorbachev emerges as the new leader of the Soviet Union. Gorbachev championed the idea of Перестройка (known as Perestroyka in the West, Russian for “restructuring”), a complex series of economic and political reforms of the Soviet system. Associated with these reforms was also the concept of Гла́сность (known as Glasnost’ in the West, Russian for “transparency”), meant to open the eyes of the Soviet people to their government’s activities. Gorbachev's idea was to garner the public’s support by showing them the existing problems of the system and encouraging the public, which also included the media, to criticize it and its leaders; his thought process was that this would convince the Soviet people that serious reform was needed. In actuality, the response to this new “transparency” and “restructuring” was very mixed, with some critics, such as Борис Ельцин / Boris Yeltsin, arguing it was not enough.
 
But, since we’re here to discuss metal and not Gorbachev's plan to catch up to the West in terms of industrial output, the above is sufficient to get us started. After 1985, thanks to Glasnost' and slightly more freedom of expression, many artists were able to finally work in the open. Taboo topics were certainly still a thing, such as sex, and you were required to submit lyrics for revision if you ever intended to play an official concert, but all in all, things were getting slightly better. This “openness” was such a surprise to everyone at the time that there was a worry among rock musicians the Soviet government was attempting to use them to legitimize their new policies and bring the youth back around. This feeling was initially accentuated by the formation of the Московская рок-лаборатория (Russian for “Moscow’s Rock Laboratory”) in late 1985, more or less the Moscow equivalent of the Leningrad Rock Club. The Rock Laboratory only included amateur musicians who, much like their Leningrad counterparts, were not allowed to earn money for their performances. Nevertheless, for some bands the Rock Laboratory was somewhat of a blessing, allowing them to play the music they wanted legally and even arranging concerts and festivals (important to note that the Rock Laboratory didn’t have its own concert hall), the most famous of which became the appropriately named Фестиваль надежд (Russian for “Festival of Hopes”), launching many artists to fame, such as Электросудорожная Терапия / Elektrosudorozhnaya Terapia. Metal, it would seem, had been given a green-ish light in the Soviet capital.
 

The Pioneers of Russian Metal

That was a much bigger contextualization than what I would have liked, but I hope it serves to paint a good picture of what life was like for a rock musician in the Soviet Union leading up to 1985 and afterwards. Without further ado, let us get into some metal bands. In this section I discuss the myths, the legends, the grandfathers of Russian metal. These are the bands that made the jump from rock to metal and made a long-lasting mark on the scene. With each band I include a few albums I recommend if you intend on dipping your toes in their discography.
 

Heavy Metal

Ария / Aria. I’d think this band needs no introduction, but it has recently come to my attention that Aria are considered an underground band everywhere that isn’t the former Soviet Union. Although some rock musicians flirted with elements that could be considered metal prior to 1985 (such as Легион / Legion), it is undeniable that Aria's Mania velichia was the very first heavy metal record coming from Russia. That it was released, without being evaluated by a mandatory special commission (not the biggest fans of rock), was a giant stroke of luck. Виктор Векштейн / Viktor Vekshtein, Aria's manager at the time pulled every string and called on every favor he had to provide Aria with a professional studio and make Mania velichia a reality. Moreover, the man got them the rights to release their music on vinyl!, allowing Aria's sound, a novelty at that time for the general public, to work its way into the Soviet homes and minds.
 
Famous for their heavy Iron Maiden worship and, of course, Валерий Кипелов / Valery Kipelov’s “golden” voice, Aria's discography can be divided into two periods, pre-1998 and post-1998. Around that time, Kipelov and other members of the band were growing unhappy with the creative limitations imposed on them by the other band members, with Kipelov going as far as leaving Aria, coming back only on threat of being sued for breach of contract; their soul just wasn’t in it anymore.
 
Regardless of the period, Aria deliver traditional heavy metal inspired by British groups such as Iron Maiden and Judas Priest. With the only hiccup between 1998 and 2002, their entire discography is very solid and consistent, without needless innovation. Of course, “no innovation” is only a partial truth, because they were one of the prime innovators of metal in Russia, where their sound was a novelty, unlike in the West. Lyrics, as mentioned previously when I talked about the influence of bards, are given as much attention as the guitarwork; although this is a constant in many Russian acts, it is especially enticing to hear Kipelov sing what sometimes borders on poetry.
 
Recommended albums: Мания величия / Mania velichia, Герой асфальта / Geroy asfalta, Армагеддон / Armageddon, Крещение огнём / Kreshenie ognem (2003).
 
---
 
Чёрный Кофе / Cherny Kofe. Formed all the way back in 1981 as a rock group by Дмитрий Варшавский / Dmitri Varshavsky, Чёрный Кофе (Russian for “Black Coffee”) are one of the most influential bands in the Russian heavy metal scene. In recent years, with the many lineup changes, it is more fair to describe Black Coffee as Varshavsky's solo project.
 
Lucky enough to be working with Melodiya, therefore having access to high-end recording equipment, Black Coffee released their first rock single in 1981 and were launched to underground fame in 1984 after heavily touring in Kazakhstan, particularly in military units, which helped spread the group’s music to all corners of the Soviet Union.
 
Not all was a bed of roses, however. In 1985, the Soviet Ministry of Culture put Black Coffee in their “blacklist,” which contained the names of many underground rock groups considered “problematic.” The group clinged to life until in 1987, two years into the Gorbachev era, they released, through a now more rock-friendly Melodiya, what can be considered their first metal album, Переступи порог / Perestupi porog. The overall high quality of the album pushed Black Coffee into the mainstream and many official concerts soon followed, including one on the 13th of December 1987, alongside Aria during the Рок-панорама-87 / Rock Panorama '87 festival in Moscow.
 
Black Coffee's style can be described as traditional metal heavily influenced by hard rock acts such as AC/DC and Scorpions. Varshavsky's vocals in particular reach incredibly high pitches that evoke Brian Johnson, or perhaps more accurately, Mark Broman from the Swiss band Killer. This specific vocal style is very prevalent in Black Coffee's 1991 release, Golden Lady, sung entirely in English, one of the first Russian bands to do so. However, Varshavsky's range isn’t limited to glass-shattering highs, as can be witnessed in many of Black Coffee's ballads, such as Владимирская Русь / Vladimirskaya Rus' or their 2007 release Alexandria; this last album in particular is somewhat of a far cry from Black Coffee's original blend and leans more heavily into metal in its instrumentation and slow, almost doom-like guitarwork at times, which combined with Varshavsky's natural voice delivers a very emotional work.
 
Recommended albums: Переступи порог / Perestupi porog, Golden Lady, Alexandria.
 
---
 
Август / Avgust. Along with Aria and Black Coffee, Avgust, formed in 1982, complete the triumvirate that are the “mainstream” grandfathers of Russian traditional heavy metal.
 
By 1986, Avgust had begun working with the Soviet state-owned label Melodiya, having one of their songs featured on one of the company's compilations. At this stage, Avgust were playing hard rock in large stadiums, but were inching closer to metal with each passing year. By now you’ve probably realized that this trend of starting one’s career as a rock musician and then transitioning to metal, especially after 1985 was a common occurrence.
 
In 1987, the band released their debut album, Демон / Demon. Although the only firmly heavy metal song here would be the title track, elements of metal could be found sprinkled all around the tracklist. The fact that Melodiya released this album spoke volumes in regards to how far the Soviet authorities had come around rock. Also released by Melodiya, Avgust's 1989 follow-up, Ответный удар / Otvetny udar firmly pushes the band into the heavy metal side. Although the hard rock roots are still present, the guitarwork is much heavier, intricate and at the forefront of things.
 
Recommended albums: Демон / Demon, Ответный удар / Otvetny udar.
 

Thrash Metal

Коррозия Металла / Korrozia Metalla. When the Soviet authorities were in a room, discussing the dangers rock posed to the Soviet youth and way of life, Korrozia Metalla had to be the closest thing that would have come to the imagination of their collective minds.
 
Formed in 1984 by Сергей Троицкий / Sergei Troitsky and a couple of his friends, it was clear from the very beginning what type of sound Korrozia Metalla would play: fast, primitive riffing inspired by the likes of Venom and Motörhead coated in edge and mockery. Too much edge and mockery, at times. Just to give you an idea, sex-shows were and still are a constant at their live concerts. Nazi imagery, nationalism and racism are also often featured in Korrozia Metalla's work. Troitsky claims this was a direct response and pushback to the state of affairs the post-Brezhnev Soviet Union found itself in; his own way of “fighting the system,” so to say. It's been 37 years, Sergei... 37!
 
Thankfully, the band has enough solid material that it’s impossible for anyone to say there’s nothing beyond the edgy gimmicks. In 1988, Korrozia Metalla released their debut Орден Сатаны / Orden Satany (independently, of course, no way Melodiya would ever release this), although they had been playing to much underground acclaim as far back as 1985. Being the heaviest, filthiest, speediest metal to that date in the Soviet Union, the group was forced to play in apartment complexes and sometimes literally underground, in basements. Troitsky recounts a story of Korrozia Metalla’s very first concert, where the local landlord called the police on the young hooligans, the basement they were playing in being stormed by KGB agents after only four songs; their equipment was destroyed and everyone involved spent the night in jail.
 
The above didn’t deter Korrozia Metalla, of course, and after the collapse of the Soviet Union (more on that in Part 2), they released arguably their best album to date, Russian Vodka, in 1993 (much like Orden Satany, it had been illegally distributed on tape as far back as 1989); an authentic speed and aggression cacophony, perfect for slamming vodka shots with friends at a party. The group’s music would, in the following years, dial back on the thrash and speed and invest more into experimental punk, a change that would be fully reverted only with the release of 666 Like, in 2013.
 
Recommended albums: Орден Сатаны / Orden Satany, Russian Vodka, 666 Like.
 
---
 
Мастер / Master. Disillusioned with the tame style of heavy metal Aria was playing, five members left the band to form Master in 1987, among which is Александр Грановский / Alexander Granovsky, legendary bass player and the only original member of the band still in it. Either way, Мастер were now free to play the beefier, speedier music they desired.
 
After some lineup changes, Master's debut was released by Melodiya in 1988, selling over 1 million copies, a record number for the time, and the band embarked on several tours across the Soviet Union, mainly in large stadiums. At this point you might be questioning why Melodiya released this in the first place. The simple explanation is: this is nowhere near the levels of filth worn on the sleeve by Korrozia Metalla. In fact, “filth” is nowhere near accurate to describe Master's s/t sound; it’s a much smoother, melodic and closer to a sped-up traditional heavy metal sound that only flirts with the idea of thrash.
 
It wouldn’t be until 1990, the date Master's follow-up album С петлёй на шее / S petley na sheye was released, that they would firmly enter the realms of thrash proper, fully embracing the aggression and putting the pedal to the metal in terms of speed. Unrelenting riffs, fast percussion and aggressive vocals can be found aplenty in this release. Traces of Master's more shy origins can, however, still be consistently found throughout the album. S petley na sheye was widely recognized as the best metal album of that year, selling over 2 million copies.
 
The following two albums, Talk of the Devil and Maniac Party, released in 1992 and 1994 respectively, are sung entirely in English and are much closer to what you would expect from a thrash band from that era such as Kreator. In fact, if I didn’t tell you these guys hailed from Russia, you’d think them to be American or German, so close in style they came to their Western counterparts. Remember how I noted that Granovsky was a legendary bass player? Well let me tell you, this ain’t no ...and Justice for All, the bass has been pumped up in the mix and it is loud and clear; not only that, but they also include instrumental bass solos in many of their albums, these two included, which is quite unusual and very much welcome.
 
Recommended albums: Мастер / Master, С петлёй на шее / S petley na sheye, Talk of the Devil, Maniac Party.
 
---
 
Шах / Shah. Legendary among thrash metal connoisseurs, Шах (Russian for “check,” from chess) or Shah as they are known outside of Russia, are an unusual group for two reasons: they sang exclusively in English and, unlike other groups of their time, they immediately began playing thrash metal; even Korrozia Metalla began as a hard rock/punk hybrid, but Shah was spreading the thrash gospel from its very inception in 1985.
 
Earning their membership in Moscow’s Rock Laboratory in 1986, Shah quickly earned a substantial following in the underground scene, actively performing in Moscow and throughout the rest of the Soviet Union. The most important of their early concerts would end up being on the 9th of December 1987, during Рок-панорама-87, alongside Тяжёлый День / Tyazhely Den' and other members of the Rock Laboratory.
 
The group’s motto at the time, which they used as an opener, “Мы группа Шах и мы пришли вам сделать мат” (Russian for “We are Shah and we came to checkmate you”) tells you everything you need to know about these guys’ music: it’s here to assassinate you with its mix of Bay Area- and German-inspired killer riffs, unrelenting drums and groovy basslines, and the last thing you’ll hear is a Russian singing in English with a heavy accent. If you’re a fan of Metallica, Anthrax and Destruction, you’ll very much enjoy Shah.
 
In early 1988, one of the founding members, Михаил Жемчужный / Mikhail Zhemchuzhny left the band to pursue a career in gypsy romance music. He is replaced by Андрей Гирнык / Andrei Girnyk, former bassist of Black Coffee and Tyazhely Den', who leaves in August of that year and is replaced by Анатолий Крупнов / Anatoly Krupnov, who put his own band Чёрный Обелиск / Cherny Obelisk on a 2 year hiatus to play with Shah. As you can see, the Moscow metal scene had its fair share of musicians playing in several bands. Not only that, but Валерий Гаина / Valery Gaina of Круиз / Kruiz was their producer that year. After playing their largest concert to that date in a “small” stadium with a capacity for 8500 people, Shah and Gaina departed to Germany to record their debut album Beware, released in 1989 to great acclaim (it wouldn’t be released in Russia until 1992), even being featured in the German Metal Hammer magazine. Sold in many corners of Western Europe, Shah would soon thereafter embark on a tour alongside Kruiz to promote their debut, a tour which was abruptly ended due to some problems in Germany, forcing Shah to return to their native Moscow. They left the Rock Laboratory and joined forces with Центр Стаса Намина (Russian for “Stas Namin’s Center,” known as SNC), a non-governmental organization founded by Стас Намин / Stas Namin of VIA Цветы / Tsvety, who took Gorbachev's words “What isn’t forbidden — is allowed” to heart.
 
Under SNC, Shah, now without Krupnov, who reformed Cherny Obelisk around this time, record and release Terror Collection in 1991 with Zhemchuzhny back on bass duties. This album is mostly a re-recording of the group’s classics from the early days that launched them to fame, such as Metal Fight.
 
Recommended albums: Beware, Terror Collection.
 
---
 
Круиз / Kruiz. A famous underground gem nowadays, Kruiz are mostly known in the Western world for their insane speed/thrash infused 1988 s/t and by the English version of their song In Flames. The band’s story, however, began much earlier.
 
The group that would later become known as Kruiz was initially formed in 1978 when a group of musicians, which included future frontman Валерий Гаина / Valery Gaina, signed up with VIA Молодые голоса / Molodyie golosa. As you can imagine, in 1978, hard rock was not in the group’s repertoire, much less metal.
 
VIA Molodyie golosa performed during the 1980 Olympics, in Tallinn, after which the group realized being a VIA was holding them back. As such, keeping only the members he deemed essential to their success, Molodyie golosa's leader Матвей Аничкин / Matvey Anichkin formed Kruiz. Under the wing of Matvei's friend Юрий Гуков / Yuri Gukov, director of the Tambov philharmonic society, the group would rise to widespread fame and success.
 
Kruiz went on to record a set of songs they’d split into two albums, the first of which was released in 1981. Free from their VIA shackles, the group firmly rooted its sound in the commercial hard rock camp, their music being distributed on cassettes throughout the Soviet Union, earning them a devout following. So devout, in fact, that many magazines at the time elevated Kruiz to the position of best rock group in the Soviet Union. While that affirmation is very debatable, what isn’t debatable is the fact Kruiz was gathering a lot of steam and broke into the mainstream after their first Moscow concert in 1982, after which they even made a movie appearance! That same year, the group released the very popular album Послушай, человек / Poslushay, chelovek, with songs such as Музыка Невы / Muzyka Nevy becoming nation-wide hits.
 
In 1984, Kruiz was dissolved by the Soviet Ministry of Culture, despite their success and the support of other musicians. This is where Gaina, together with some of the former Kruiz members, completely spits on the Ministry’s decision and forms a second Kruiz in 1985, immediately beginning the recording of a new experimental album, КиКоГаВВА / KiKoGaVVA, which would end up being released later that year. The album unfortunately did nothing to boost the group’s popularity and, dissatisfied with the result, Gaina again reforms Kruiz, bringing in Сергей Ефимов / Sergei Efimov for drums duty and keyboard player Владимир Горбанёв / Vladimir Gorbanev, from Avgust, to play at the festival Рок-панорама-86 / Rock Panorama '86, where they unveil speed metal versions of their songs Мираж / Mirazh and Не падай духом / Ne padai duhom. Keep in mind, up to this very point, Kruiz were a popular commercial rock group in the minds of the Soviet people; this shift came as a complete surprise.
 
In 1986, Kruiz somehow convinced the people at Melodiya to publish their demo Рок навсегда / Rok navsegda as a full-length (released in 1987 as Kruiz-1). Due to economic constraints, however, the group is not allowed to re-record their material. As a result, bassist Фёдор Васильев / Fyodor Vasilev is shown on the cover art and mentioned in the band’s lineup, despite not having taken part in recording any of the material. That same year, Kruiz's concert in Omsk was broadcast on television, bringing the new speed metal Kruiz widespread fame. Kruiz-1 sold over 1 million copies and, in 1987, the group embarked on both a national and international tour, from Finland all the way to Spain. On this release, Kruiz's hard rock roots can still be heard throughout the album, the musical style being a mishmash of hard rock and the early speed metal sound pioneered by Motörhead and inspired by songs such as Breaking the Law by Judas Priest. The notorious exception being the song Последний рассвет / Posledny rasvet (sometimes played live at a mind-numbing 318 bpm) which is fully within the heavy/speed metal sphere; a premonition of what was to come.
 
Still in 1987, the group was noticed by a German producer, who proposed to the group releasing an album in West Germany. As such, Kruiz began working on their now famous s/t album, released in 1988, which can be characterized as full pedal to the metal speed with thrash influences. Attaining fame both at home and abroad, this would be the peak of Kruiz's popularity.
 
In 1989, Kruiz began recording a new album titled Culture Shock. Unfortunately, due to disagreements between Gaina and Efimov and the latter leaving the group, the release met a premature death, even after enlisting Running Wild’s drummer Iain Finlay’s help in an attempt to save it. Thankfully, it would see the light of day in 2008, a welcome change of pace that contrasts with the modern group’s music, which returned to its commercial rock origins.
 
Recommended albums: Послушай, человек / Poslushay, chelovek, Круиз-1 / Kruiz-1, Kruiz, Culture Shock.
 
---
 
Чёрный Обелиск / Cherny Obelisk. Formed in 1986 by Анатолий Крупнов / Anatoly Krupnov and a group of friends, Чёрный Обелиск (Russian for “Black Obelisk”) are one of the first thrash metal bands formed in the Soviet Union.
 
Inspired by early rock groups such as Mashina vremeni, Nazareth, Black Sabbath and Metallica, Krupnov's desire to form his own rock group was ignited while he was still in musical school. A classically trained musician, Krupnov recalls not understanding the appeal of groups such as Black Sabbath, thinking to himself “These people know neither how to play nor sing,” yet he continued listening and eventually the metal style became an obsession of his.
 
The history of this group is so huge, it could fit a primer of its own, so I’ll speed it up a bit. Throughout the late 80’s, Black Obelisk attains underground fame and is up to its neck in concerts throughout the Soviet Union. In 1987, with the help of some French entrepreneurs, the song Полночь / Polnoch is recorded in a professional studio, to be featured on 1989’s compilation De Lenine a Lennon, released in France. In 1988, while on tour in Moldova, conflict erupted within the group and Krupnov dissolved the band upon returning to Moscow, going on to work with Shah for the next two years.
 
Black Obelisk's very first full-length studio album was only released in 1991, after Krupnov reformed the band. It is titled Стена (Russian for “The Wall”) and received wide acclaim for its powerful, dense and dynamic compositions, with pointedly realistic lyrics. The musical style on this album is a more tame, classically influenced form of thrash metal, akin to Master's s/t, but that isn’t afraid to step up the aggression when required. The bass lines are also noteworthy and earned Krupnov the title of best bass player in the Soviet Union at the time.
 
In August 1991, Black Obelisk, along with E.S.T., Shah, Korrozia Metalla and others, perform during the protest Рок на баррикадах (Russian for “Rock on the barricades”), in front of the White House (more on that in Part 2). In 1992 they release Еще один день / Eshe odin den', their second full-length to once again critical acclaim.
 
Throughout the following years, Black Obelisk played several big concerts and recorded two more albums. However, in 1997, frontman Anatoly Krupnov suddenly died of cardiac arrest, and Black Obelisk died with him. Due to the initiative of some of its old members, Black Obelisk was resurrected in 1999, showing they still meant hard and heavy business in concerts in the year 2000 and releasing their “debut” album Пепел / Pepel in 2002, keeping Krupnov's legacy alive and well to this day.
 
Recommended albums: Стена / Stena (1991), Ещё один день / Eshe odin den', Пепел / Pepel.
 
---
 
Электросудорожная Терапия / Elektrosudorozhnaya Terapia. Better known by their acronym Э.С.Т. (Russian for “Electroshock Therapy” or E.S.T.), they are one of the best-known thrash metal acts in Russia.
 
Formed in 1986 by Жан Сагадеев / Zhan Sagadeev and some of his school friends, E.S.T. gained entry into the Moscow Rock Laboratory in 1987. This opened the door for the group to play at the Rock Laboratory-organized Фестиваль Надежд-88 / Festival of Hopes '88, where E.S.T., up until then a completely unknown band, conquered the hearts of the young public with its powerful energy and non-standard lyricism, from politics to sex. Literally overnight, the young “therapists” became an underground phenomenon.
 
Under the guidance of Valery Gaina of Kruiz (I know, the guy’s everywhere!), E.S.T. record their first demo, Russian Vodka in 1989. That same year, a German record company took an interest in E.S.T. after their first international tour through Germany was complete. This culminated in Destiny Records publishing the first E.S.T. full-length that same year, Electro Shock Therapy, and the group departed on yet another tour throughout the German cities; every venue was full to the brim and the group rose to fame in Germany.
 
The band’s style takes heavy inspiration from Motörhead, but is more aggressive in nature, and Sagadeev's voice cannot be described as anything other than “Russian Lemmy” (opening for Motörhead, they'd meet the real Lemmy in '97). However, E.S.T.’s sound is also inspired by Russian folk, including bard music, and the depth and execution of the lyrics by Sagadeev helps differentiate E.S.T. even more from its Western counterpart.
 
Still with Gaina as producer, the group records and releases, in 1991, their follow-up album Проба пера / Proba pera to wide critical acclaim, with over 200 thousand copies being sold, including in Melodiya shops. The success of this album earned E.S.T. a spot on the September 28th, 1991 Monsters of Rock show, alongside giants AC/DC, Pantera and Metallica, playing in front of a crowd of over 800 thousand people.
 
Much like what happened with Black Obelisk, E.S.T. died in 2009 alongside its frontman, Zhan Sagadeev, who committed suicide a few days after his last performance with the group. E.S.T. was resurrected by some of its old members a few years later and continues to play to this day.
 
Recommended albums: Electro Shock Therapy, Проба пера / Proba pera.
 

Power Metal

Легион / Legion. These guys should honestly be under the heavy metal section, because up until their 1994 debut Knights of Cross, they were pioneering traditional heavy metal, instead of the… weirdness they’d eventually become. However, because these guys were so instrumental in pushing the scene forward in the 80’s and leaving them off until Part 2 would be sacrilegious, here they are.
 
Continued below...

Quick News

• Bumble had a successful IPO yesterday and closed at $70.31 (+63.51%)
• Biden is pushing hard for the $1.9 trillion relief plan. He will meet mayors and governors today to discuss this. Also, more than 400 mayors wrote to leaders in Congress earlier this month to urge them to pass Biden's relief package, but Republicans are backing a far less ambitious plan.
• Energy stocks declined (Chevron Corp, Occidental Petroleum Corp and Exxon Mobil Corp) as oil prices retreated on demand fears.
• Joe Biden announced on Thursday the government had bought 200 million more doses of vaccine.
• House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the Democrats’ proposal for a $15 minimum wage will be in the final draft of the stimulus package when the House debates it.
• U.K. GDP shrinks most in 300 years (-7.8%) due to the pandemic and slowing business investment due to the Brexit.

Quick Earnings

• Walt Disney : Revenue = 16.25B / Forecast = 15.91B
• Kraft Heinz : Revenue = 6.94B / Forecast = 6.82B
• PepsiCo : Revenue = 22.46B / Forecast = 21.76B

Quick things I'm looking for today

• 2PM EST : US Federal Budget

Quick things I'm looking next week

• Monday : Presidents' Day, Trade Balance (Euro)
• Wednesday : ECB Monetary Policy Statement, Retail Sales Report

Quick Thoughts

Ok that one is a bit long.
SPY has been flat all week and it's freaking me out
After a run-up like the one we've had last week, we usually have 3 options :

• The run-up keeps going
• There's a slowdown
• There's a brutal reversal.

There can be a forth option, the one that we're seing currently, that fucking flat ass market, but it's pretty rare. That's because a runup means that investors are either optimistic about the future or are only now factoring a new piece of information in the price. What happened recently is a mix of both : the vaccines and reduction of cases is good for the future and they also reacted very positively to the $1.9 trillion dollars package that Biden is trying to push through.
So after this reaction of a positive news and in absence of any other meaningful news, the runup can either keep going or slow down as investors finish to bet on this.
The brutal reversal can happen if there's another new piece of information that gives pessimistic outlook. Except right now, I don't see anything of that sort and the market neither because there's no brutal reversal.
That leaves us with what's happening right now : that flat dead boring market. This can be for 4 reasons (that I can think of) :

• Investors are waiting on a new piece of information that they know is comming.
• Investors are holding cash because there's a lot of uncertainty at the moment. They'll eventually do something when that uncertainty has diminished.
• There are some sectors that are doing well when others are doing poorly so the market is staying stable for that period.
• There are some investors that know more information than others and are acting on it while others oblivious are on the other side of the trade.

The market is not waiting for anything significant so that can't be it. Sure there's uncertainty but not that much more than last week for example, so why the run-up then?
The Energy sector is doing pretty poorly right now while the semiconductor or technology sector is doing pretty well lately and the rest of the market is pretty flat so the third point can be it.
But that could also be the last point. And before continuing, this is going to be a bit far fetch, I know it and that's why instead of betting on it, I just got out of the market and became cash gang.
Puts tinfoil hat on
I think that some big players are selling their positions and try to hide it.
That would explain why SPY is going up when the market is closed and the volume is very low and goes down when the market is opened and the volume is very high. They artificially increase SPY price during low volume with a small amount of capital and sell their position at the high price that they set pre-market. Same thing is happening for stocks.
And this is not me saying that fraud is happening here because I don't think this is the case at all. Institutional investors have access to data that we just can't afford to have either because it's way too expensive or because it's proprietary data. Market makers know market sentiment more than anyone in the world and they can differentiate between institutional investors and retails very easily due to the way we act vs the institutions. All those players with information that we don't have are seeing the market in a totally different light than we do. And right now, their advanced tools and proprietary information are telling them to sell, and they did it in big volumes.
The thing that I'm asking myself is whether it is for risk related reasons or because they expect the market to go down. Regardless, I'm cash gang until I get more information on what's happening.
Tinfoil hat off
Just a reminder : it can just be that other things like :

• some sectors are doing well while others aren't.
• there's a 3-day weekend and that adds more potential risk before they can do anything
• risks that the USA-China tensions might increase due to some things Biden said.

Or really, it can be any other reasons that I haven't mentionned. This was just a theory.
Betting on C3.ai
Do you know C3.ai? It is an artificial intelligence software company whose mission is to assist companies in their digital transformation. The C3 AI Suite, their main product, has a lot of services designed to help companies to create AI apps cheaply and efficiently. Or you could use their prebuilt AI apps. It already has a lot of big names as customers such as 3M, Engie, Caterpillar, Baker Hughes, Shell and the fucking US Air Force. C3.ai's product main appeal is not really the AI per se but really the platform itself. The AI seems to be pretty basic. They're however trying to protect their way of using it : patent 1 and patent 2 as proof. I've skimmed through the thing, understanding a third of what I've read but there is nothing groundbreaking here : it's some IoT shit mixed with some prebuilt industry specific shit. Or to be more specific, they're banking solely on the way they've packaged it : making it simple and all in one product for your IoT and data needs. No one has done it quite the way they've done it so if you want that, you don't really have other options. So let's make it painfully clear : the technology is NOT revolutionary by any means, their way of packaging all of this is not really revolutionary either (Microsoft and Google have done similar things with MS Office and the G-Suite), BUT... they're the only real player in this game because of the sheer amount of data that they have trained their (pretty generic) machine learning models.
If we want to make the bullish thesis on this company, those are the main points :

• they're the industry leader.
• they have a ton of data and have models that have been trained on a lot of data too.
• they have a lot of experience on applying machine learning on very big datasets.
• they have both the low level service that lets customers design, develop and deploy their customizable solutions and the all easy-to-use no-coding-experience-required service. Note that big players like Google, Amazon and Microsoft are trying to compete but crazily enough, they're still way behind.
• By having 2 services for 2 polar opposite types of clients, they can hope that the people that only bought the low-level service will later pay extra for the prebuilt solutions and easy-to-use services.
• Also, if they attract enough clients, they can easily sell them other services if they create new ones later on.
• They're still losing money but their revenue last year was at 157 millions.
• They have a really good growth for the last 3 years and it's expected to continue for the next few years.
• They have a great CEO (Tom Siebel).

But to be complete, you have to see the potential risks with this company :

• The big names like Google, Amazon and Microsoft that don't have that much market share right now will try harder to get their fair share of the pie and an acquisition is very unlikely with a $15bn valuation.
• The only way for C3.ai to compete against them is to have a really good growth very quickly to become a very big player before the other big players manage to crush them.
• It has a P/E ratio of 100 meaning that investors expect a pretty astonishing growth.
• It has a big concentration of its revenue on a few customers (Engie, Caterpillar, and Baker Hughes being the 3 main ones).
• It is a money losing machine. While I don't consider this as that much of a risk as literally almost all companies that IPOed in the last decade were unprofitable. Hell, Amazon was unprofitable for 10 years. But when you have competitors that can lose 10 times was C3.ai loses and it won't even be noticable in their balance sheet, that gives you an idea of how fucked they can be if they don't grow fast enough.

So in conclusion, the company is the industry leader, grows really fast and is expected to grow really fast too. The only big risk is the competition but this can be managed if C3.ai grows as fast as they're projected to do.
In my opinion, long term, it's a pretty risky play that can really pay off big time if it works. If that's not the embodiement of that sub I don't know what is.
Have a nice weekend! Ok Bye!
Edit: Added more reasons as to why this run-up might have stopped suddendly.

Finally had a bit of time and figured I'd do this write-up for any big aspirers out there looking to make the leap in their careers. The first part of this digest will cover holistic qualities, actions, and overall approach to making the leap in your career; the latter will cover specifics between FP&A roles.
I can't be bothered to read the rest of this post, can you TLDR it?
Pick 2: be the smartest, most hardworking, or most likeable person in the room
Why should I listen to you?
I don't really care one way or another, but I'm passing this knowledge on as I've been very fortunate in my career to have mentors that have done the same for me. I'm speaking based on my personal experience and the career path to Director.
What are your credentials then?
Current: mid 20s, Director of FP&A at a tech company (Series A/B).
Background: started in FP&A working at startups (Series Seed to Series F and acquisition) beginning as an intern/analyst and eventually scaling teams and FP&A/finops to support hyper-growth companies leading to successful exits.
How have you made career jumps so quickly?
A lot of it is luck -- being at the right place at the right time (will cover the specifics later in this digest). Besides that, I highly recommend working at smaller companies if you're someone with high drive and ambition, as meritocracy is more prevalent in startups than an F500 business. Downsides are less stability, lack of work-life balance in some cases, and lower comp when compared to F500 counterparts. Lastly, I've always done diligence on my bosses -- is this person someone I'm capable of learning from, will this person sponsor me for a promotion when the appropriate time comes -- these are all important things to feel out when interviewing.
I just started a new role, when is it too early to ask for a promotion?
First, you should never initiate a conversation centered around asking for a promotion. However, in your first 90 days at a new gig, voice your interest in growing professionally and establish a game plan for development. I've typically grabbed the Google GROW development plan and framed short-term career development around that. The important part is to show interest, desire to grow and contribute, and frame the conversation around supporting your manager.
What are the criteria that have to be met to be promoted?
There are a few conditions that have to be met in order to even be considered for promotion:

1. There's a business need and organizational space for your new role. If you're a senior manager reporting to a director, the chances of promotion are much more slim than say if you were reporting to the CFO.
2. You meet the minimum requirements to fulfill the responsibility in the next role or have shown the potential to do so (see specifics further below).
3. Sponsorship/support from your org's exec. While your direct manager will be the one championing for your promotion, the final signoff will come from the org's exec (usually the CFO in these cases).
4. You've had ongoing conversations with your manager about your careeprofessional development and have set appropriate goals (and eventually meeting those goals).

Okay, I meet those criteria, what now?
Employees often forget that their managers are people too. At the end of the day, managers want direct reports that make their lives easier and make them look good. So how do you do that? Not specific to any roles, the overarching qualities of employees that receive promotions are:

1. Be a team player: as your manager decides who on your team is worthy of promotion, they also have to factor in the overall sentiment of the team if that person is promoted. Imagine worst case scenario -- your manager promotes you but you're hated by the rest of your team and they leave the company as a result, leaving your manager understaffed. Help out the rest of your team when you have available bandwidth, and they'll go to bat for you when it matters.
2. Be a "yes" person: this doesn't mean you agree with everything your boss says, but rather that you're willing to do the shit that no one else wants to do. Show willingness to tackle ambiguous projects, accounting/reconciliation bullshit, and other not-so-fun responsibilities. Your manager will appreciate and love you for it. If they don't, it's time to leave.
3. Be an effective communicator: obviously this will depend on the type of manager you have, but one thing I see too often is people overexplaining and diving too deep into the details, resulting in wasted time for your manager. Be concise, thorough, and over-communicate especially in the context of the current WFH climate. I always tell my team I hate surprises -- don't surprise your boss with news they aren't expecting (e.g. missed deadline, incorrect models, etc.)
4. Be someone who can self-develop: read self-help/development books, stay up to date with your industry, and use Google. Doesn't seem that difficult, but consistency is key and the ability to demonstrate that you can learn on your own without needing someone to hold your hand.

In addition to those key qualities, promotion guidelines also differ by role:
Analyst -> Senior Analyst
Be a good analyst. Here's how:

• Show coachability and willingness to learn. The sooner you wrap your head around the concept that you're at the bottom of the totem pole, the easier your life will be. You will be a burden to your manager and team the first 3 months on the job. Lessen that load, take notes, and don't ask the same question twice. Balance questions vs. figuring stuff out yourself. Keep asking for feedback and know where you stand.
• Ask for deadlines and meet them. As the saying goes, "under promise and over deliver" -- set expectations and communicate clearly when you'll have stuff in their hands. Your manager doesn't want to ping you about every little thing to check progress of.
• Be quick and productive, but don't turn things over too quickly. Most common among overly ambitious analysts wanting to show their competence is submitting deliverables as quickly as possible (with many errors). Slow down, review your work, and double check assumptions and numbers ("does this make sense"). I'd rather receive a deliverable 3 hours from when asked but done to 100% accuracy vs. iterating 3 times over the course of 3 hours because you couldn't get it done right the first 2 times. Protip: print your models and analysis -- usually they look more clear on paper vs. on a computer screen. And hit F7 on everything.
• Own your mistakes. Everyone eventually makes mistakes and it's a shitty feeling, but how you handle it is very important. Accept the responsibility, explain the cause of error, and follow-up with future plans to reduce error.
• Come up with solutions to problems. If you go to your manager with a problem and no solution, suddenly your problem becomes their problem as well. Of course you won't be able to generate a solution every time (certain roadblocks require exec help), but if you can increase the number of times of going to your boss with potential solutions to address issues, you're making their life easier.

Senior Analyst -> Finance Manager (by far the hardest jump)

• There's no set playbook for this one since it's all about finding a manager willing to give you a chance to manage others. Here are some potential paths to get there:
  1. Coach and help out junior analysts as the senior analyst on the team. Establish yourself as the go-to person for questions and be able to help out your manager with mundane questions. This'll establish you as someone who's able to coach others and develop them.
  2. Find a role that's a Finance Manager IC (individual contributor) role without a direct report. If you're able to prove yourself as someone who can manage resources effectively and generate enough value to require a team, your boss will eventually let you hire someone to help out. This is (in my opinion) the easiest way to break into management.
• Be a "big picture" person. The term is overused, but for good reason. In some aspects, being a Finance Manager is essentially a project manager to some degree. Demonstrate that you're able to lead a project and process from beginning to end (most common example would be the budgeting cycle). In addition, show that you're able to disconnect yourself from diving too deeply into the details and show potential to delegate these tasks to others.
• Show that you deserve a seat at the table. At the Analyst/Senior Analyst level, your influence on decisions is fairly minimal -- sure, you might be generating the analysis to affect decisions, but ultimately you are not the one making them. Assert yourself and push back against business partners when things don't make sense and establish yourself as someone who can make sound cases for why something should be done or not done.
• Learn to manage up. Managing up entails making it easy for your boss to understand what you're working on, the prioritization of tasks, and deadlines to be met. If you're known as someone who brings problems without solutions, this is further exponentialized when you have a direct report. Although your boss wants a manager who's able to drive max productivity among direct reports, they also want someone who can push back in the appropriate manner should it arise. Understand your boss's communication style and the right way to discuss disagreements.
• Learn to story tell. As an analyst, a lot of the work is quantitative. As you get ready to take the leap from Senior Analyst to Manager, be able to articulate a story and business case where there is a desired result and planned course of action. Lead meetings that are effective and easy for execs to make a decision off of.
• Anticipate your manager's needs and be proactive. Nothing makes a boss's life easier than having a direct report that can anticipate what needs to be done and have it already finished for review. Your boss also doesn't want you to be just a middleman of contact between them and your direct report. Exhibiting behavior that imply that you're able to come up with your own projects and drive value for the company is a good indicator that you'll be able to manage resources effectively.

Finance Manager -> Senior Finance Manager

• Won't spend time talking about this. The differentiation is typically compensation and years of experience. Basically a case of "we don't want to make your Director because there's not a business need and you just don't have the right qualities/potential."

Senior Finance Manager -> Director

• Get sponsorship from your exec as well as execs from other functions. For this transition, buy-in needs to come from the very top (C-Suite). What this means is that prior to making the shift, you need to be a highly visible person in the company. People need to know who you are and the value you bring. You'll have to be a strong cross-functional leader at this point to be considered.
• Ability to build strong relationships across the company, particularly being a dependable and collaborative business partner to other non-Finance orgs. Depending on the size of your org, Finance Managers may or may not interact very frequently with other functions, but at the Director level it becomes extremely common. Understanding how other orgs operate and their general sentiment about working with FP&A will go a long way.
• Show strategic thinking and drive the FP&A roadmap. At the manager level, you're primarily focused on building out FP&A processes, developing models, and prescribing analysis. To take the next step, think about and execute on ways in which FP&A can contribute to the broader company goal. For example, if one of your company's quarterly OKRs is to drive up retention and/or sales, how will FP&A contribute and assist with that? It becomes your responsibility to figure out how to support other functions in the company to make it happen -- could be creating ROI models, developing the right metrics/KPIs to measure, or a rework of the existing business/payment model.
• Be a subject matter expert in your industry. Be able to communicate financial goals and the "right" growth goals to hit as a company. Part of this exercise is also understanding your industry well enough where you come up with achievable goals. For example in the case of SaaS, knowing the healthy Net LTV/CAC ratio to target for your industry, Rule of 40, Bessemer Efficiency Ratio, retention and churn, etc.
• At this level (in the context of a Series A - D company), you'll likely be contributing to the BOD deck, both in terms of creating the visuals but also crafting the storyline to potential raise additional capital down the road as well as keep existing investors content. Understanding the business takes on a whole different depth since you'll have to understand what the Product, Marketing, Sales, other functional groups are doing and the upside effects on the business based off the allocation of resources.
• Navigate office politics. At the Director+ level, there's always a special snowflake among senior management that gets special treatment from the CEO or C-Suite. Find out who that person is and cater to them and/or just don't piss them off. The special snowflake typically has a way of swaying the decision for your promotion.
• Show strong capabilities to retain employees and talent. For consideration at the Director level, your boss wants to know that you're capable of retaining an A+ team and hire strong talent. Prove your ability to motivate and develop your employees to drive additional value for the FP&A org.

This digest is inexhaustive, there are plenty of concepts I didn't cover, but the above points are guidelines I've found most important.
Congrats, you made it all the way through. Thanks for coming to my TED talk, feel free to shoot any questions.

Merci to the kind people who gave awards! 💚
In the pursuit of building a more internally consistent fantasy RPG world, difficulties arise when imagining the structural complexities of how groups of people organize themselves. There’s a somewhat helpful section in the DMG that talks about linking PCs with in-game organizations, but it doesn’t delve into the minutia of how they operate. This guide is an amateur consideration of the logistical and cultural framework of factions. This can hopefully be useful to you as a system to grasp how powerful an organization in your world really is.
This guide is separated into four parts:

1. Inspiration to flesh out the nature of the organization.
2. The roles of different ranks of membership within the organization.
3. A table offering a suggested number of members compared to the size of the territory the organization works within.
4. Benefits and drawbacks of the organization's different scopes of influence.

​

The Nature of An Organization

Group collectives are not created equal. It's important to understand that the unique qualities of a group differentiate it from others. They may primarily serve the public's interests or rather simply their own special interests. However, all serious collectives share some common criteria and can be categorized by how they operate.
The 4 Basic Criteria of Factions

• A shared goal or goals.
• The work involved in reaching that goal.
• A system of communication.
• A leader or committee that makes executive decisions.

A domestic organization is a group of people that operate in the public's service. Members work closely with the people of their community but aren't necessarily part of their governing body. Its goals typically align with the well-being of a settlement.
Examples: Militias, and religious groups that provide homeless shelters, healthcare, old-age services.
A hybrid organization is a group of people that operate in the public's service while simultaneously propelling their own goals.
Examples: Religious groups, trade guilds*, Bard colleges, Wizard academies, tavern owners.
A private organization is a group of people that work outside of the public's service to rapidly propel their own goals. It is potentially harmless and usually profitable. Its goals, ideals and plans may be purposefully concealed and in defiance of a larger governmental body.
Examples: Companies, secret societies, thieves' guilds, pirates, Barbarian hoards, Wizard towers.
*A voluntary organization is a special type of group of people that may operate in the public's service but purposefully lack strict internal organization. This can allow the organization to function without institutional formalities while its members are still independently bound by a common mission statement or ideology. Its members may be called to service only when it is necessary. A voluntary organization will have a reduced or non-existent number of Managers, Lieutenants, and Executives.
Examples: Religious groups, political groups, Druidic circles, Monastic temples, Blood Hunter groups.
​
Sample Organization:
Good ol' Rusty Joe gets his buddies together, cuts out some black cloaks, and gets to work figuring out how to run a successful criminal organization.
- Their goal is to accumulate as much gold as they can.
- The actions they do to accomplish this is by robbing local businesses.
- They communicate with each other with hidden messages in potatoes.
- Joe is the leader and he orders his buddies to target a local shoemaker.
Things are going great! The shoemaker hit went well and it wasn't the last. Joe has found himself at the head of a small Private Organization. The money is flowing but he might need more help if he wants more gold...
​

Ranks and Roles of Membership

This gamification of the type of members an organization would have is an attempt to simplify and separate their roles. Each role plays a part in furthering their factions goals. I use a mishmash of terms to make it easier to understand member's roles: Grunts, Managers, Lieutenants, and Executives.
Grunts
- Carry out the bulk of an organization’s work.
- Are typically recognizable by a homogenous uniform.
- The success and credibility of the organization relates to their boots-on-the-ground efforts.
- Have the least amount of power and stake in the organization.
Examples: Labourers, acolytes, guards/soldiers, bards, researchers, apprentices etc.
​
Managers
- Responsible for training and tasking those beneath them.
- Usually (but not always) distinguishable from ‘Grunts’ by their improved uniforms.
- Populated by older or established members of the organization.
- May be specialized in a certain skill that the organization requires.
Examples: Supervisors, priests, platoon leaders, scholars, etc.
​
Lieutenants
- Responsible for overseeing specific operations.
- Act as middlemen from 'Managers' to ‘Executives’.
- May be appointed to lead the organization in a specific location.
- May lead teams of specialized ‘Managers’
- Typically handsomely rewarded and distinguished for their high rank.
Examples: Regional managers, bishops, lieutenants, archivists, etc.
​
Executives
- Their personal ideologies are interwoven with the goal of the organization.
- Plan the operations and management of the organization or a significant branch of it.
- Interact with delegates from governments or other organizations.
- Responsible for charting the future of the organization to ensure its survival and success in its goal(s).
Examples: Cheif Executive Officers, patrons, cardinals, chieftains, generals, archmages, etc.
​
Sample Organization:
Rusty Joe's private organization is thriving and he wants to expand his crew of rogues. He promotes his most trusted friends as Lieutenants and Managers and they get to work recruiting Grunts. His profits triple and he rewards his workers well! Rusty Joe's business has spread and he's in charge of the biggest criminal organization in the local area. But, it's still not enough gold...
​

Number of Members Compared to The Size of Their Territory

Knowing the number of members and the composition of their ranks can be helpful when conceptualizing the influence of an organization. An organization may have higher ranking members who act as delegates to other organizations but don't necessarily make the decisions that a leader or council would.
​

	Total Members	Number of Grunts	Number of Managers	Number of Lieutenants	Number of Executives
Local	50	40	6	3	1+
Regional	500	400	60	35	5
National	2000	1650	250	90	10
Continental	5000	4300	500	175	25
Global	15 000+	13 000	1600	350	50

​
Sample Organization:
Rusty Joe meets Slimey Sue, a like-minded gang leader from the next town over. They talk, flirt, strike a deal, and ultimately combine their forces together. Joe and Sue's organization now perform the majority of bank robberies between the two towns and they even branch out into money laundering! They're Regional organization boasts over 512 certified rogues. Still, it's not enough gold...

Benefits and Drawbacks of Different Scopes of Influence

Local organizations hold influence within one or two settlements.
Benefits: Small member numbers and a centralized location means communications can be disseminated quickly. It's less likely that the organization is considered a threat to greater powers.
Drawbacks: The organization's goal may be small or otherwise difficult and time-intensive to accomplish. Without a larger member pool, it's vulnerable to burnout or mutiny.
​
Regional organizations hold influence within multiple settlements.
Benefits: Communications are still fairly easy. They may be able to affect how a region is governed. Their services may become essential to how a settlement functions.
Drawbacks: The organization's goal may be somewhat hard to accomplish. Members are somewhat decentralized. Powerful people in the area are aware of the faction's influence.
​
National organizations hold influence within all or almost all settlements within a country.
Benefits: A small monopoly on a certain resource or service can be established. The organization has become an institution and plays a part in how a nation is governed. Members can be repositioned between settlements depending on where more support is needed.
Drawbacks: Members are decentralized. The organization may begin to precede its original goal(s). The organization is heavily scrutinized and will most likely be in contact with other powerful organizations. Efficient management becomes imperative.
​
Continental organizations hold influence between several countries.
Benefits: A large monopoly can be established. The faction has a legacy and has become part of common knowledge of millions of people between different languages. Being established in many countries is safe for the organization.
Drawbacks: It can become difficult to send accurate communications out to members. Operations are affected by the laws of different countries. A rigid bureaucracy is needed to plan actions that fulfill the faction's goals. It is vulnerable to corruption and sabotage attempts.
​
Global organizations hold influence across several or all continents. *Modern day influence*
Benefits: A total monopoly can be established. The organization is practically enshrined in the current global cultural consciousness. Its goals may be larger and achievable. They can unify countries under its banner.
Drawbacks: Bureaucracy becomes messy and sabotage is almost guaranteed. Their operations are consistently affected by political ties as their reputation is intertwined with many different nations. Corruption and sabotage are guaranteed in the organization. It can unify countries but just as easily pit them against each other to ensure its survival.
​
Sample Organization:
Rusty Joe did it! He's the co-leader of a successful criminal enterprise, has more gold than he knows what to do with, and the woman of his dreams is his partner in crime. Unfortunately, love can hurt, and so can a hand-axe when it's plunged into your neck while your sleeping. Slimey Sue takes over the organization and cuts off the dead weight of Joe. She grows her solo criminal empire and intimidates more thieves' guilds into joining her. Her organization now dominates as a national organization and she has almost every pick pocketer in the country on retainer! However, she doesn't pay her Lieutenants well enough so one of Rusty Joe's old buddies decides to drown Sue and take over the organization. Crime never pays, folks.
​
Notes: Countless factors can influence the logistical and cultural impact of an organization: its assets, the geography of areas, its current performance, its history, its member’s devotion, interference from rival organizations, interference from governments, etc.
This is from my own understanding of organizations and it back-projects modern ideas of organization onto a fantssy world associated with DnD. I'd argue that while this may break immersion, playing with modern themes often engages players. If you have any suggested historical reading on earlier forms of human organizations please leave them in the comments.
Thank you for reading, Root.
EDIT: Reduced Member Numbers.