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NFL Core Plays: Week 8

Fades will be listed as players in which we'll either be far lower than the field on or just completely off of in anything other than team stacks.
YPT = Yards Per Target
ROO = Range of Outcomes
YPRR = Yards Per Route Run
aDOT = Average Depth of Target
YAC = Yards After Catch
DVOA = Defense-Adjusted Value over Average
TT= Team Total
POWN= Projected Ownership
aFPA= Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed
EPA= Expected Points Added
RACR= Receiver Air Conversion Ratio
WOPR= Weighted Opportunity Rating
For those of you playing Single-Entry, 3 Max, 5 Max, or 20 Max: the players listed in the first two tiers are the ones to focus on the most. Ideally, you would sprinkle in some of the players listed in the 3rd Tie Dart Throw range to help diversify your player pool.
Please adjust accordingly depending on the type of contest you're entering. While we may advise you to stay clear of the obvious, more popular plays in large-field GPPs, feel free to mix and match those type of plays in smaller-field GPPs and Cash Games.

QB Core

Primary Tier

R.Wilson: I don't care if SF has a good defense. None. Especially if Carson and/or Hyde miss this game, SEA will be forced to be even more pass friendly. Also, I actually like SF's chances to score some points on this horrific SEA Pass D. To ease any concern, Russ is currently avg. 10 yards per attempt at a nearly 80% clip vs. Zone. Guess who runs Zone D at a Top 5 rate? The Niners.

Secondary Tier

R.Tannehill: With his price increasing every week (DK), we will likely see POWN held in check. This game will likely determine how my week goes as I plan to be all over it in the majority of my lineups. I've said this over and over again, but I'm just so impressed with TEN's willingness to push tempo. With a fast pace, and incredibly efficient performances every week, Tannehill will continue to be featured in Core Plays.
J.Burrow: His price oddly didn't really spike on any site, and that's fine by me. The #1 leader in drop backs in the NFL will be in a matchup where both sides like to push the pace. Mixon looks like he's going to miss another week, making the CIN Passing Game all the more obvious of a play. If we throw out the BAL game, Burrow has literally never scored less than 17 DK points, even in matchups that were a lot less favorable game environments.
P.Mahomes: Mahomes has provided enough data to see that he does put up top tier points in these surefire blowouts. KC will score 4 TDs before the end of the 3rd Quarter (if not sooner). We just need to hope we don't see those fluke Special Teams and Defensive TDs like last week which ended up being Mahomes worst fantasy output EVER. Not exaggerating, it was his lowest output in pass attempts, rushing yards, yards passing, with only 1 TD.

Third Tier

L.Jackson: I dont think Jackson is going to be viewed as anything more than a "ah maybe I'll throw him in a lineup at the end". Half a season removed from one of the greatest fantasy seasons we've ever seen, the regression bug has caught up to Jackson. Even then, the guy went from #1 Points per drop back to a mere 3rd best. People are acting as if he's fallen out of the top 10. Tough matchup? Sure. But go ahead and take a look at what games have led to Jackson's greatest outputs this year? CLE, WSH, and PHI. All have some of the better D-Line's in the league and they couldn't do anything to stop him. Another bonus here, the fact that this matchup should be competitive in the majority of ROOs. An elite talent being priced down to the 4th highest priced at the position, all while still leading a team that has a healthy 25+ implied point total.
J.Garoppolo: Any QB facing SEA has to be mentioned. Jimmy isn't your typical every week DFS plug and play but he does fit the mold of an ideal GPP play. He checks off all the boxes we want for DFS QBs in 2020: Cheap, BOOM matchup, prone to spike weeks that include ceiling games, and oh.. he might be low owned as well.
A.Rodgers: I usually don't like chasing ceiling performances but there's no way I'm going to avoid ARod here. Even so, there are some troubling angles this game could see. The good: GB ranks 2nd in the NFL when it comes to scoring per-snap. They also rank in the top half in neutral-situation passing rate. The bad: Both offenses are in the bottom when it comes to pace and plays run. GB averages just 63.8 plays per game (20th) and even worse, MIN averages 59.3 (30th). When games are within one score, both teams rank near the bottom in pace (GB 27th, MIN 28th).

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

J.Allen: I initially had Allen in our 2nd Tier, but decided to move him to this group on account of his low POWN%. While this game doesn't have a juicy total and the Pats D ranks near the top in several categories, this is still a QB that has shown tremendous upside in just about every type of matchup. If you've been with us since Week 1, you know where I stand on Allen. Go over the field.
Thursday Update: Similar to Cam below, I had higher hopes for this particular game before finding out the injuries and weather attached. Projections will be lowered on both offenses as well as OWN%.
C.Newton: One. More. Try. Cam was great to us when the season began, but has been a shell of himself since his return from COVID. Usually a game with a total of 45 implied points is a big red flag. There is plenty of downside going with Cam Stacks in NEP vs. BUF, but there's also about a 30% shot this play can be one of the better upside + leverage moves of the week. BUF D has been bad, no way around it. Bills rank towards the back of both phases of defense (DVOA), 28th vs. pass, 24th vs. rush, 29th Overall. When looking at their PFF grades, BUF ranks 28th vs. the Run and jump up to 11th in Pass-Coverage. Clearly, NEP will likely attempt to run it as much as possible. That is where I'm hoping we'll see Cam go back to his near 12 rushes per game average Pre-Covid as opposed to his 7.5 clip these last two weeks.
Thursday Update: I had written the above prior to knowing Edelman is out, and his WR group will be D.Byrd, J.Meyers, and Gunner O. Also that the game appears projected to be played during a monsoon. So I will go ahead and take the aqua color away, I will lower my OWN% to very low levels, but I will NOT be fading him! Yolo.
K.Cousins: While I don't usually look at past matchups data as a part of my weekly assessment of a player, Cousins has played fairly well vs. GB, like always. Just as his favorite weapon, Adam Thielen, has consistently found a way to get the better of GB's secondary. Still, as mentioned above, the game could have a concerning pace issue. The return of D.Cook will likely cause the Vikings to favor the run. Cousins will be a way to pivot in large-field GPPs.

In Between Tier (In play but I'm likely to be under / not excited about)

J.Herbert: His DK price is nearly unplayable since it's based on him reaching near his ceiling game, but it's much friendlier on FD.
Thursday Update: With all the possible weather issues, Herbert has become a very interesting, very low-owned (At least on DK) large field tournament / Q option.
D.Carr: Before seeing that he's likely going to be one of the more popular options, I had Carr near the top of my GPP tier. If he's anywhere 8%+ owned I will take my chances coming in lower. That being said, this is a really good spot.
B.Mayfield: Down his WR1, he was still able to have one of his better games last week. He's staying in my player pool as a way to pivot off the Hunt chalk.
B.Roethslisberger: I actually think I may be over the POWN here, but I'm not going crazy either. PIT will likely find out it's a lot easier to throw on BAL then just running it up the middle. His weapons are quite dope.

QB Fades

These are QBs we're looking to mostly avoid, especially as solo plays. (Either because of high ownership and/or a poor outlook.)
D.Brees: "If no M.Thomas, I will be suppressing my Brees ownership severely", is what I said last week. Now, same plan, going against a decent CHI D in what is likely to be a slow paced affair.
M.Stafford: We haven't seen a true week changing ceiling and the matchup could slow down their pace this week.
P.Rivers
D.Lock

Ideal Stack Pairings

There's a lot of leverage to gain when including a second pass-catcher with our QB choice AND bringing it back with a player from the opposing team. Unlike the majority of sites, we don't advise to strictly game stack 4+ players in matchups with high implied totals. Instead, we look to target offenses where the targets are heavily concentrated.
P.Mahomes-> T.Kelce and T.Hill / D.Robinson
R.Wilson-> T.Lockett and/or D.Metcalf
J.Burrow-> T.Boyd and T.Higgins / A.Green
R.Tannehill-> A.Brown and/or J.Smith / C.Davis
A.Rodgers-> D.Adams and/or R.Tonyan / A.Jones
J.Allen-> S.Diggs or C.Beasley
K.Cousins-> A.Thielen or J.Jefferson
J.Garoppolo-> G.Kittle and/or Aiyuk
J.Herbert-> K.Allen and/or M.Williams / H.Henry
B.Mayfield-> R.Higgins and/or K.Hunt
T.Bridgewater-> R.Anderson and/or D.Moore
C.Newton-> J.Edelman or N.Harry
B.Roethlisberger-> D.Johnson and/or C.Claypool / J.Smith-Schuster
T.Bridgewater-> D.Moore or R.Anderson / M.Davis
M.Stafford-> K.Golladay or T.Hockenson
Tua -> D.Parker or M.Gesicki

RB Core

Primary Tier

D.Cook: It's the return of the GAWD. Cook is slated to return this week after the world finally realized that Mattison is not his equal, nor in the same tier. He's been fed the ball often and MIN knows he needs to be a big part of their plan if they want to keep up with Rodgers and Co. As a bonus, he's cheaper and likely to be lesser owned than some of the other Top RBs.
K.Hunt: His advanced metrics are actually showing several areas of decline but my god the current situation couldn't have even been dreamed of when the season began. Chubb and ODB are now gone, he's in position to see an endless amount of touches and is in a GREAT matchup. Oh, he's game-script proof regardless.
A.Kamara: He's likely the most talented player on every field he steps on and if the Saints ever decide to give him those 25+ touches, they may like what they see. I don't understand why they aren't giving him 30 touches let alone 25. This game also leaves Kamara's ceiling somewhat suppressed. While I won't be "Fading" Kamara, it's looking like a rare week I'll be coming in under / matching the field. (Scroll below to Updates to read NOS vs. CHI Game Environment Issues).
Update: I went through the numbers, he's currently averages about 20 opportunities per game (even without M.Thomas). Come on Saints, the hell. Unleash him.

Secondary Tier

D.Henry: The BIG DAWG is fun to own on those slates where he steps on all the defensive backs heads on his way to a 95 Yard TD score. How does somebody that big run that fast? He pulls away from CBs and Safeties that are attempting to chase him down. Anyways, we're looking at what will likely be my favorite game stack of the week. TEN vs. CIN is just so perfect for GPPs. I've said it over and over again, Pace and Volume are vital categories that I will always try to be overexposed to on a weekly basis. TEN and CIN feature the only game that BOTH teams are in the top 8 in Pace. Faster Tempo = More Plays. More Plays = More Volume. More Volume = Fantasy Gold. While this was supposed to be a D.Henry breakdown, I turned it into why I'm going to be all over this game. The CIN and TEN Pace is no fluke either. Henry has the most touches in the league while Burrow has the most drop backs in the entire NFL. Man, I'm excited.
A.Jones: His talent and projected workload belongs in the top tier, especially given its a plus matchup and he's pretty much game script proof. However, this is one of the more key areas I'm waiting to get a definitive feel for how the field will be playing it. If we see D.Adams chalk I'll go heavier on the RB side. If we see people flood to the GB Run side, I'll go even heavier on the passing attack. Regardless, I want all the GB vs. MIN I can get and will be making sure any popular combination will be attached to a contrarian piece I find elsewhere.
G.Bernard/J.Williams: Both will quickly make their way up the tiers if they get the lead role again. Both are in plus matchups, but I would like to see where POWN would be coming in at. Most likely, they will be decent pivots off their team's more popular options. Since they both have pass game roles, they can be stacked nicely with their QB as well.

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

J.Jacobs: He's been quiet as of late, but he's still one of the best volume situated backs in the league. One odd category that most people wouldn't even suspect is his solid number (24% heading into Week 7) of RBs who are targeted at the highest per-route rate. Believe it or not, theres only a handful of players with a higher number. On top of that, he's rushed 20+ times in half his games, caught multiple passes in EVERY game, and has seen no less than 3 targets in ANY game. I'm really intrigued to see where POWN is going to come in at. Regardless, I'm aiming to be a decent amount higher.
J.Taylor: I know, I know. Grandpa Taylor and his 15 carries for 78 yards with hopefully a fall into the end zone. It's been rather brutal ever since his coming out party Week 2. Still, I have to mention the enticing matchup vs. DET's 28th ranked DVOA vs. RBs, the relatively high game total of 50+, and the large O-Line advantage he will have vs. DET's D-Line. So there you go, I have said what I have to say, now you know it. And now, we try to talk ourselves into one way or the other.
M.Gordon: So far this has been an odd tempting spot for me to go way over the field on. Besides the "revenge game" narrative, Lindsay is likely to miss this week, giving Gordon all the run he can handle. Because he's capable of catching the ball and running between the tackles, his reasonable price and the likelihood of being 5% or less owned makes him quite the bring back piece to any K.Allen lineup. While DEN vs. LAC isn't likely to go nuclear, it can very easily feature two players who can tilt some contests. Perfect case of POWN vs. What his upside/outlook suggests he should be owned.
CEH: Honestly would be straight up fading him if you told me he was going to be 18%+ POWN. I'm assuming he won't so therefore, he falls in a weird space this week. There's no reason why he cant see 21 touches and find the end zone multiple times here, and yet, he seems to find a way to disappoint. I also will be projecting him lower than what you may be accustomed to. That is because I'm 100% sure that they will be giving 1 TD to L.Bell.
M.Gaskin: In general, this MIA vs. LAR game finds itself in no man's land this week. Simply because of the lack of attention this game will be getting, leaves my contrarian obsessed mind to try to find the hidden treasures. LAR are weaker vs. the run than the pass, and with a rookie QB, I would have to assume MIA might try to keep the ball on the ground more. It's also nice to have a few bring back options in any game stack such as C.Kupp or R.Woods. Hell, even G.Everett and J.Reynolds can be other next to no ownership pieces.

Lower-Ceiling / Volume and/or TD Plays

I wanted to separate the RB group a bit more this week. While these players can be played on all sites, they are likely better suited to TD oriented scoring formats (FanDuel).
J.Conner: My ownership levels are low enough where he can be considered a "Fade" but he also makes enough sense as a contrarian TD dependent play.
J.McKinnon/J.Hasty: I would favor McKinnon because of his pass game usage in a game where they'll likely be trying to keep up vs. a defense that's a lot better vs. the run than the pass.
Starting SEA RB: While facing an elite Run D will usually be something I fade, whoever SEA plays this Sunday presents us a way to pivot in large fields or Qs with the off chance SEA decides to revert back to their 2013-2019 ways. A weak hedge on my part that will be a very small part of my FD plan.
D.Henderson / M.Brown: Annoying committee but the matchup is near as ideal as it can get.
J.Jackson/J.Kelley: Ideally LAC would like to pass it on DEN but sure, there could also be chances for red zone carries here.
D.Harris: Since there's a 50% chance NE just runs it 40 times here.
L.Murray: I wouldn't be opposed to going heavier on Kamara on DK while bumping up Murray's ownership on FD. A great hedge against the Saints burning us with random TD variance. Again.
L.Bell: Likely will be gift wrapped a TD against his former team.

RB Fades

D.Montgomery: Workload and backfield is all his and it doesn't seem to matter. His inefficient ways are no longer a habit, but a way of life.
BAL RBs: You don't find success by running vs. PIT.
J.White/R.Burkhead
D.Singletary
Any DET RB not named Swift

Standout RB Notes

Unlike the more volatile positions, it's generally fine to play the chalkier options at the Running Back position. Their guaranteed workload & touches are extremely difficult to replicate otherwise. That being said, remember to adjust based on the type of contest and field size.
Talking shop with Nick today, he brought up the "Don't play 2 RBs from the same game" rule. While that might be so for the majority of games, it's not a rule that applies for every single matchup. For example, this week I see two particular games that I wouldn't mind having both RBs in the same lineup.
J.Jacobs and K.Hunt
D.Cook and A.Jones/J.Williams
If a game includes at least 1 RB who has a decent role in the team's passing game, it opens up the possibility of 2 RBs going off no matter the game-script.
The Cook and GB RB pairing might be the more obvious but you still be surprised how rarely people play two backs in the same game. The one that I think will be very rare is Jacobs and Hunt. Mind you, before I even checked the horrific passing weather that will plague this matchup, I was all about going in on both backs, even in the same lineup. For the most part, just about every type of DFS player knows K.Hunt is well known for his pass catching abilities, but I think 95% of players would be shocked to see Jacobs' low-key pass role. Mentioned up top, but it's worth saying again: he's rushed 20+ times in half his games, caught multiple passes in EVERY game, and has seen no less than 3 targets in ANY game.

WR Core

Primary Tier

D.Metcalf/T.Lockett: If I'm playing Wilson then obviously these two have to be included. Not the "best" matchup but on the chance this game ends up shooting out more than what people are expecting, the ceiling is as high as ANY.
K.Allen: Just a BEAST. Week in and week out, volume of the gods. I actually just became friends with the LAC WRs/Offensive Coordinator Coach so I got some insight into how they prepare for their weekly matchups. Regardless of opponent, Allen is producing at his all time best levels right now. Price doesn't seem to go up which is annoying and will make his POWN higher than it would otherwise. Lock of a Cash Play, and I will be looking to find some unique ways to feature him in my higher-dollar lineups.
D.Adams: Usually when you already own a ridiculous portion of your team's opportunity share it's hard to find another level, but that's what Adams just did when the Packers lost A.Jones. Even though Tonyan and MVS can have a few spike weeks here and there, there is no greater target density that has this kind of ceiling. Price is as high as its been all year leaving a lot of room for "disappointments". By disappointment I mean even a 8-85-0 (16.5 PPR Points) is going to be considered an off week. So while there is a decent possibility Adams "only" gets us a 16-18 point output, you better believe there is plenty of ceiling potential that we see him go nuclear yet again.

Secondary Tier

A.Brown: The combo of The greatest receiving talent in the week's best game environment has me all over Brown here. I'll have my hedge lineups that feature an unexpected C.Davis and/or Humphries spike week but no where near the amount of Brown exposure I'm planning.
J.Jefferson / A.Thielen: Yup, Jefferson has now reached Thielen Status and will be side by side. This game is my favorite one to build stacks from because of the numerous ways we can go about it. We can include GB Running with MIN Passing, we can go MIN Running with GB Passing, or we can simply bet on an all-out arial attack from both sides and have an onslaught type of lineup. (5 Players from the same game). I plan to feature an even amount of these two in all MIN vs. GB Game Stacks but I'll also be featuring them as secondary stacks and 1-off pieces without issue or hesitation.

Tier 3

T.Hill: Leading off the tier of "Really Great Talent" but questionable game environments goes Ty Freak. There's no reason why Mahomes wouldn't target the one of the most dynamic players in the game at least 7+ times. There's nobody in the Jets secondary who even remotely matches up well here. Yet, my fear of KC running away with it and their propensity to share the ball all around have me scared enough where I won't ever go all in on a certain KC pass catcher.
S.Diggs: If I am betting that NEP get their act together vs. this overrated Bills D, that likely means S.Diggs should be in position to see a lot of volume and opportunities. I wish he wasn't going to be covered by last year's best CB in Gillmore, but I'm still going to bet on Diggs Talent and workload. The good news is that S.Gilmore has "fallen off" from the #1 CB to merely just a top #10 ish CB this season. Side note: If NEP are somehow successful at slowing Diggs down, that just means that Beasley and J.Brown (G.Davis if Brown is out again) are likely in position to have a BOOM week.
K.Golladay: Last week was the highest I've ever been on Golladay believe it or not. He did his thing too, so all is well. Still, I dont understand what is keeping the Lions from feeding him true #1 Alpha targets? He's been playing in only about 75% of snaps all season which whatever I can get over if that means he's being peppered whenever he's on the field, but that's not totally the case. He hasn't seen anymore than 8 targets in a single game. That 8 target game was also his only 8 target game, meaning the others have been even less. So, this is a long-winded way of saying I want to see DET commit to their stud in the making before I go all in, especially on weeks where the matchup isn't as juicy.

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

Players in this grouping aren't necessarily "worse" plays than Tier 3. The majority of the time you'll see players in this tier that I have projected to outscore some of the names above them. This tier should be viewed more as the "Leverage Group" because of their ownership being lower than it should.
NOTE: I almost didn't have to touch this section. Take a look back at last week's GPP Dart Group for WRs, an absurd % surpassed their projections. Just a reminder of how this tier tends to be the GPP tilting plays, one way or another.
T.Boyd: Pretty easily the best game stack piece to bring back in any TEN lineup. Oh, and the best WR to pair with Burrow on the CIN side. The only downside is his price increase, especially on DK. His teammates Higgins and Green offer better savings but it comes with a lower floor as well.
C.Kupp/R.Woods/J.Reynolds: I know, what the hell? All 3 are going to be severely low-owned compared to what they should. I mentioned above how LAR vs. MIA will be all but forgotten this slate, so here's me reminding you about their upside pieces. I wanted to mention Reynolds alongside these two studs because he's been putting up rather impressive numbers for week now at near min price and 0% ownership. All 3 of these can make awesome 1-off pieces as well, as there are plenty of outcomes where MIA lays an egg but LAR can still provide at least a couple of high scoring players.
B.Aiyuk: By default, the #1 WR in a game vs. SEA secondary. Kittle will still be the #1 Pass option, but Aiyuk is in a clear BOOM spot.
R.Higgins/J.Landry: While Landry will be the favorite to become CLE's go to WR post-Odell injury, it's Baker to R.Higgins who's put up some of the most unexpected QB-WR efficient numbers I've ever come across. Evan Silva mentioned the insane 74% completion rate on 65 targets for 705 yards and 7 TDs Higgins has put up when targeted by Mayfield. That's a 10.8 Yards per Target clip. Jesus.
M.Brown: BAL has paths to make this game a shootout rather than a slug fest. While the Eagles aren't exactly in either of the Ravens or Steelers Tier, they managed to turn both of their contests into high scoring, slate shifting explosions. While the Philly offense is in pieces, their D is actually somewhat comparable to these two teams. Now, again, overall they are probably two tiers below at their best, but the scheme and game flow is a great comp. Even if we have only a 33% shot to see a shootout here, I know who the likely suspects will be. With PIT having a lot better middle and inside coverage, their vulnerable on the outside. Enter, Mr. Brown.
T.Higgins: The 2nd most talented CIN WR. His upside remains that of GPP worthy and now we're even starting to see a stable floor that comes along with it. Great matchup that will likely see at least 2 CIN WRs perform well.. I like his chances.
D.Johnson: This has been one of the most annoying players to get right ever since he blessed us with a fantastic first week. Since then, we've been trying to ride him and his newly found rock solid floor to cash glory only to somehow lose him in 3 straight weeks to injury. His price last week was another key oversight that I dropped the ball on. I fell victim to having been burned too many times in a row to make him a major target last week.
C.Davis: Quietly, this former 1st Rd. Pick is becoming a decent player. Coming off of a 6 Receptions for 35 Yards and a TD on a team-high 10 targets, Tannehill seems to clearly trust him. Avg. 7.3 Targets through his 4 games.
C.Claypool: You just won't see me ever be lower on him than the field. Sadly, the days of near no ownership are likely past us.
D.Robinson (KC): Last week I wrote "My week might hinge a bit too much on whether or not Robinson continues seeing a 95% snap share. Oh well. Bombs away" Sigh. Of course, it took the most random variance of defensive TDs and Punt Return TDs to make Mahomes have his worst fantasy production of the year. Robinson is still in position to see a whole lot of snaps as the team's starting WR. At his price, it doesn't take much. Honestly, one Mahomes throw of 20 yards will get us there.
H.Ruggs: We saw his upside already. The talent is tremendous. And now so to is the matchup. (Wind might affect this call. His thrives on down field splash plays)

The In-Betweeners

Pieces that won't be priorities but offer plenty of upside in any Team / Game Stacks they're a part of.
A.Green: While I wouldn't like to rely on AJ reverting back to his prime week in and week out, we'll likely see at least a couple of spike weeks for the former stud.
J.Smith-Schuster: This guy man. I touted him all Week 6 and he burns me. I mention him in passing Week 7 and he reverts back to the old Juju.
T.Patrick: WR1 in an underrated game stack.
P.Williams: With Parker Out or even playing gimpy covered by J.Ramsey, P.Williams makes for an ideal 1% owned YOLO play in MIA/LAR Stacks.
MVS: Hasn't shown up lately but his price is really low for the WR2 in a Rodgers led offense.
N.Agohlor: Being an Eagles fan I just can't trust it, but he can be a stacking option if you like.
M.Jones: While his snap count and target share is in a sort of free fall, he's still capable of providing GPP Winning weeks in the right spots and outlier games.
D.Byrd: Keeps being priced down as if he's not seeing 90+% of snaps and 5+ targets on the regular. Might be only WR left standing.
A.Humphries: Not exciting, but exceeds value more than you would think.
K.Bourne: Floor is probably 0 but again, SEA secondary and he will be in position to see the 2nd most snaps of SF's WRs.

Standout WR Notes

Nothing much left to be said other than yet another reminder to CORRELATE your lineups. Try getting exposures to some Game Stacks that have paths to featuring several upside winning players.

TE Core

Primary Tier

D.Waller: He can lead the position this week without much of an issue. His ROO includes that of making someone a Millionaire. Great piece of a great game stack. Hell, even as a 1-Off he's nice.
G.Kittle: Faded him last week, but that stops here. Not only was he already the focal point of an offense, not only is he a 100% snap player, but now he gets to face the worst graded secondary in the NFL in a matchup that includes a ROO anywhere from a disappointing meh performance to Game of the Year. I'm betting it goes closer to the BOOM side. (The offense lost a lot of their target share due to injury, so his ridiculous usage is even safer now).
T.Kelce: Literally rinse and repeat from last week. I expect him to be decently owned and that's ok. He's popular for a reason. Presents the safest floor + ceiling combo of the position every week.

Secondary Tier

J.Smith: Here we go again, going back to the players who sucked the previous week. Smith seems to be practicing in full so we can drop all this Firkster crap.
M.Gesicki: What better way to protect the rookie QB than to pepper your talented TE who happens to be in a plus matchup vs. LAR. They are a good defense overall, but TE's are their Achilles.
M.Andrews: Might need to revisit this once the weekend arrives and POWN has changed, but the popular thinking would be that Andrews gets single digit OWN% after a dud game AND a tough matchup that will have the majority of our opponents skipping him over. This may be the rare chance to get a Top 3 QB + a Top 3 TE at bottom-level OWN%. Their ceiling easily makes it worth it.

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

CLE TEs: Both Bryant and NJoku still offer decent value and are part of an offense that just lost it's number 1 target share holder. OBJ's injury has now opened up almost 40% of End Zone targets for CLE.
H.Henry: Chalky bust of last week means you know what... Play him more than the field. Don't get crazy either. If POWN is 4%, lets leverage the overreaction to a 8% clip.
T.Burton: I'm not going to deceive you guys, I have a bit of a crush on Burton ever since he was an Eagle. Love his game and all the ways he can produce. We don't know what the TE snap share will settle between Burton, Doyle, and even MAC. That being said, I'm willing to bet that Indy saw what they have in Burton and with his still really cheap price, I'm going to be plugging in Burton more than the normal DFSer.
R.Tonyan: Likely a better play on FD for his TD role, but the price has dropped enough on DK where he makes for a nice low-owned pivot in any GB Stacks.
I.Smith Jr.: Role has been growing. Likely no high ceiling in his ROO but plenty of results that see him eclipse his projected total.
E.Ebron: Including him even though the majority of his ROO includes outputs of a 4th option (as he is now) but he's also got outcomes that see him get a 2 TD game at any given week. FD preferred.
D.Sample: Only in CIN Stacks as a pivot off their WRs.

TE Fades

T.Hockenson: He's been fine. I'm still waiting for more ceiling games to come before I ever insert him into any high dollar lineups. His game total is pushing 50+ at least, but my interest is "meh".
N.Fant: I was initially excited to playing Fant this week until I ran into some troubling data. Not only have the LAC D strangled TE production as a whole, they've done so while facing some of the teams who target their TEs at the highest levels. He can always get lucky and come away with a TD, but math tells me to take some shots elsewhere when it comes to DEN offense.
J.Graham: TD or bust every week and somehow the price has risen.
G.Olsen: Honestly it's ok as part of SEA Stacks to differentiate and save money but SF vs. TE is rather tough.

TE Standout Notes

TE is a unique situation to approach depending on the site you're playing on. On FanDuel, TEs are usually priced closer together, leaving it unnecessary to play a lesser talent compared to a similarly priced stud. Touchdowns are a lot more important on FD as well. While on DK (Full PPR), we can pay down to a value TE who can get us there on volume alone.

DST Core

Highest Raw Rating: KCC, BUF, NOS, LAR
Other Pivot Options: CHI, LAC, NEP, IND, TEN, BAL

Additional Notes

We'll also make sure to explain all the benefits our Boogie Factor brings to the table and how to use it to your advantage.

The Boogie Factor combines numerous sets of data that we prioritize for player's outlooks. We're confident with our projections heading into Week 1, but our edge is really going to start showing come a month into the season. Reason being, we're waiting to collect a month's sample size from the 2020 season to better reflect certain jumps / declines players have taken.
An example of all that goes into the Boogie Factor besides the obvious categories such as projected pass attempts, yards, and touchdowns (just for QBs) is the following:
- Expected Hurries
- Projected Blitzes
- Projected Pressure
- Moneyline Spread
- Moneyline Movement
- Expected Passing Air Conversion Ratio
Recent data is even more important for skill positions such as WR and RB. A position as volatile as WR, being able to collect Air Yards Data helps nail down other advanced metrics that better predict WR efficiency and outputs.
- Receiver Air Conversion Ratio (RACR )
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
If all that is a bit overwhelming to you, not to worry. That's why we're here and that's what the BF will help sort out.

Added Notes: Potential Game-Stacks to Target / Fade

Coming off my worst week of my DFS career, I'm going all in as far as studying every possible angle of every game. While some will be popular and for good reason, I'll be focusing more on the "secondary" options that will be more likely to be looked over.
An example, Bills vs. Pats. The low total and the recent skids of both offenses are going to cause some of the lowest ownership of the entire slate. While it's concerning that our boy J.Allen and his Bills have gone from averaging 30+ points the first month of the season to just 17 points per game since, we know the upside remains in tact. More troubling is Cam and the Pats. With literally 0 Top 24 WR & TE Week Performances since their matchup with Seattle (Week 2), we obviously shouldn't be going all in here. That being said, there is reason for hope that the Bills Top 10 Pace in 1-Score situations can force the Pats to wake up and push their tempo. As mentioned with Cam, I'm hoping we see an increase in his rushing attempts as oppose to NE simply handing it off to their rotation of backs.
Update: Sigh. Weather concerns..
Then we have those "Could Be Shootouts but Can Also Disappoint) matchups of SEA vs. SF, CLE vs. LVR, and even LAC vs. DEN.
I'm actually pretty high on SEA vs. SF generating a lot of fantasy scoring. Lets take a look at the ridiculous fantasy friendly events that are SEA games. First of all, they have produced the 2nd most plays per game (140.5). They also have the PERFECT ingredients we look for when it comes to predicting shootouts with their pass first, fast pace offense and their horrendous pass funnel defense. The cherry on top is their Run D being a Top 10 unit which all but guarantees that opponents will be looking to find ways through the air. While SF may not rank among the top in pace, or average anywhere near the amount of plays per game (124), they tend to speed things up when facing a capable opponent. SEA definitely falls under that category.
CLE vs. LVR falls closer to a 60-40% chance of surpassing expectations. My main concern is that these offenses both fall in the bottom half of the league in pace. They both are also run-first offenses. That being said, regardless of these facts, LVR games and CLE games have both managed to combine an average of 60+ points through 7 weeks. That isn't exactly a small sample. Still, there is a possibility their slower paces cause their efficient scoring to drop more than we've seen so far. At the very least, we know K.Hunt and J.Jacobs are in prime spots to succeed being in teams that handoff at Top 5 rates in 1-Score Situations.
LAC vs. DEN is actually more of a "You wouldn't think so but you be surprised". At first glance, I figured DEN offense to rank among the bottom 5 in all things scoring and pace. Surprisingly, DEN games actually rank among the top half and LAC games have seen a Top 5 rank in total plays ran. I'm assuming this matchup won't be too popular as far as game stacking is concerned, leaving us some room to gain leverage with the hidden upside we can see.
To recap: I love TEN vs. CIN, they will be my #1 targeted game in all type of contests.
Other games like DET vs. IND and NO vs. CHI offer us very little hope as far as ceiling and pace are concerned. DET's bottom 5 grade vs. the run will likely have IND committing to their usual run first ways. DET began the year with some decent pace (Top 10 throughout the first month) but have plummeted to the 20s since. As far as NO goes, they are literally dead LAST when it comes to pace whenever the game is within a score. On top of CHI's horrific 4.8 yards per play (30th), both team's defenses have been far more successful than the offenses they will be facing. CHI D ranks top 5 in Pass Rush and Pass Coverage while NO D allows the 3rd fewest "Splash Plays"(20+ yard plays). The CHI offense as it is, ranks Bottom 6 in Splash Plays themselves.
If you like this content, visit us at dailyboogie.com for additional pieces free of charge all weekend and let us know what you think!

CreateYoureReality NFL Divisional Round Analysis and Picks

UFC Thompson vs Neal

Last week's predictions were pretty successful and well received so here I am making another round. I will hurry to get this out as fast as possible before the lines change too much, since they already have so excuse the typos etc.
This card will most likely be a really fun one, even more so than the previous, but a bit trickier for predictions. Just tune in and enjoy the show, don't go hard on bets since there are too many fights that can go either way.
Prelims

Christos Giagos vs Carlton Minus
I was looking forward Minus vs Glen but that fell through so we get this instead, sadly. Giagos is a strong wrestler that tends to tire out in the 3rd. Carlton might be the better striker, but I believe he does not have ufc level ground game. This is something that could have changed but I doubt it, we can't make that guess. Giagos will most likely be able to easily take him down and control or even find a submission, as I said "ufc level" ground game is the thing that quite a few newcomers *might* lack and if you dont have it you will be a fish out of water. You can always have Minus in the 3rd due to Giagos tiring out and getting lit up especially after a short notice fight, but I wouldnt bet on it, neither I would bet on Minus having good enough wrestling to stuff his takedowns and win. Giagos most likely takes this one.

Jimmy Flick vs Cody Durden
Fight that was rebooked, we have Flick an incredibly slick submission artist, with decent wrestling and meh striking. Durden a strong wrestler with powerful striking. If you look at it like this Durden has the wrestling to stuff the takedowns of Flick and KO him or get a decision, however he has not shown the best fight IQ and I believe Flick might need a single well timed trip or a td to get the fight to the mat and submit Durden, that being a likely outcome Durden is a risky bet. However, considering he is the underdog I believe the risk might be worth it. Flick by Sub is barely +150 and Durden by TKO/Decision is +550/+500 so you can decide which one to pick when the chances of them happing are 55/45. Durden is a solid dog that very well might get subbed.

Tafon Nchukwi vs Jamie Pickett
Nchukwi is a huge favourite here, although he is only 4-0. He seems to have really good striking fundamentals and he is trying to be pushed as the next big thing, being a Muai Thai specialist. Pickett is used as his stepping stone to be knocked out in the first round and the odds reflect that. I don't think there's a lock here but Nchukwi didnt look as good striking as he was supposed to look, however Pickett looked even worse with wild haymakers at times that might get him sniped and to slow to get out of the pocket when exiting. Nchukwi is going down a weight class so that is one thing that might play a factor here, and Pickett has pretty decent double leg entries. Everyone is betting Nchukwi by KO at -150 , and although that is very likely I don't think it's worth the price. Expect a possible upset happening here which is either a Pickett win utilizing his wrestling and challenging Tafon's gas tank or Nchukwi not being able to finished Pickett and getting a decision at +650. Another fight that unless you are looking for fun upsets that have value, I would stay away from.

Gillian Robertson vs Taila Santos
Gillian is an incredibly strong grappler but her striking is quite bad. Taila on the other hand has decent grappling and striking both. The only thing that worries me, which would otherwise make her a good bet is that she stood on her back for a full round in her UFC debut without advancing the position, if you do that against Gillian you will most likely lose. I am not sure if that was a one off thing but it keeps me from betting her with any certainty. The odds being even here I believe the value is on Taila but dont cash out on it.

Deron Winn vs Antonio Arroyo
Deron will be utilizing his very strong wrestling and his Tysonesque boxing in order to get the win. Arroyo has looked very willing to stay in someone's guard which is once again worrying, considering Deron is a really strong wrestler that can keep you there, which could be a one way to ticket to Deron by Decision. However, if we are willing to accept that risk I believe there's a lot of value on Arroyo in this match up. He will be the MUCH bigger man, he will have rangier kicking/punching combos + knees that can give Deron a lot of trouble because of how short he is. He should have the better gas tank and he should also have the better BJJ, although his wrestling isn't. The wrestling part might be neutralized due to the size difference but not sure if I am willing to count on that. I believe there's a ton of value on Arroyo at +550 by Decision or even Finish, +600 KO/TKO
Sijara Eubanks vs Pannie Kianzad
I don't have any strong positions on this fight at all and I would skip it if I were you.

Anthony Pettis vs Alex Morono
I am really looking forward this fight, you will have aging Pettis, who just hit the 10 year anniversary of his Showtime kick which became the poster child for MMA around the world fighting a gritty veteran in Morono. If this was years ago I would say Pettis hands down easily. He is the better striker, he doesn't have the better wrestling but he has the more dangerous BJJ, he can knockout, submit or just outstrike Morono to a decision. But the Pettis of today is a bit gun shy, he gets pressured easily and taken down pretty much at will. Anthony is a huge favourite in this fight, and I am not sure he should be. He is expected to win by decision which is fair since it would be hard to put away Morono. Depending on the gameplan Morono utilizes I believe there's some value there. He can just outvolume Pettis with his striking style and win a close decision if Pettis is once again gun shy or he can utilize his wrestling and get a comfortable decision while risking Pettis catching him in something and submitting him. If you are going to pick the big upset in Morono winning, which as I said is not too unlikely, pick Morono by decision at +350, unless an accident happens it's very unlikely he wins in any other way. Pettis has been incredibly inconsistent and although I favour him to win here I think there's value on his current moneyline besides the Submission prop.

Marcin Tybura vs Greg Hardy
We have yet another fight that the line reflects really well, Hardy being a slight favourite and Tybura being a slight underdog. Striker vs grappler type of fight. Hardy found a way to combine his natural gifts with his developing skillset while lasting the full 3 rounds so that can give him a lot of confidence before this match up. However, this will be the first time he meets a "ufc level" ground game opponent and that is something to look forward to. Assuming both fighters perform up to their potential, Hardy is game so he probably will, Tybura not so sure, and if Hardy wins that means he will be ready for the big boys in top 15. Tybura had a stretch of 4 fights where he was knocked out in 3 from people not as hard hitting as Hardy, so if you are wondering whether Hardy KOing him is possible, it very much is. So I will be putting my money on Hardy? Ehm, no, he has been too inconsistent and we have never seen him face a UFC level ground game fighter yet and this will be his make it or break it moment. Tybura on the other hand has faced all types of fighters with different levels of success. If I were him I would start slow avoiding the big shots and look for takedowns in the second half of the round. If I had to look for value in this match up I would definitely go for the underdog in Tybura, he has the better wrestling and way better BJJ. Hardy could have improved and get an easy win in both of those areas but the thing about betting is we have no way of knowing that before we see it. Not sure if i would be betting this fight but Tybura winning is a bet that holds some value. A decision is possible but weirdly enough the submission prop is valued at +700.

Marlon Moraes vs Rob Font
Another good fight on this card that has the potential of being a banger. Moraes is the all around better fighter, however he has had gas tank issues in the past which made him a bit gun shy, and that is the first of our worries here. That will also most likely stop him from wrestling since it would tire him out quicker, although he has the clear advantage on the ground. What we are left with is a striking affair in this case. Moraes is always in either his kicking or punching range, he lands powerful kicks and strong hooks. Think of a smaller Barboza version with better boxing. Font on the other hand has one of the sharpest boxing combination in the division. The question here is, how did Moraes get affected by being KOd couple of months back, is he all there mentally is he even more gun shy, which is a recipe for losing a decision, or is his head back in the right place or will he get rocked the first time a clean punch lands. Font is also coming out of a bad injury and 1 year lay off, he fought once in 2 years, is ring rust going to affect him. I believe Font's plan here will be pressuring Moraes to avoid being in the kicking range with him, while tagging him with clean combinations and gassing him out due to the pressure and Moraes never finding his rhythm. Many people are high on Font in this match up, and I would have been too if Moraes hadn't fought too many fighters like Font that tried the exact same thing and most failed. If we get the old Marlon that's an easy win, if we don't it gets interesting. I would bet on Font hoping that the other fighter doesn't show up, so although that can happen I will go with Moraes in this one.

Michel Pereira vs Kalinn Williams
That is the type of fight that everyone is high on betting. I need to stop you right there, when you start betting you need to distinguish between fun fights to watch and good fights to bet on. This one here is the former. Kalinn has fight ending power, he has knocked out both of his last 2 , extremely solid opponents, in 30seconds or so. That tells you, considering both of those opponents are more higher level than Pereira, that the outcome can be the same here. However, Pereira has the thing that can nullify that which is incredibly good movement, good chin and size. Having said that, there might be some value on Pereira, him being -110 + him most likely having a wider arsenal to work with, including submission, wrestling etc. However, he does not fight well when pressured and from the past 2 fights we have seen Williams is willing to 1. pressure 2. throw one to eat one, and if you eat one from Williams it's most likely good night. I would just sit back and enjoy this fight, really looking forward to it. Kalinn is a big unknown so we do not have enough information to bet on him, and for Pereira, well there might be some good value, but the big unknown knocked out too really good fighters in less than a minute combined in his first 2 ufc fights, so keep that in mind.

José Aldo vs Marlon Vera
Marlon has been doing incredibly well lately with 6 finishes in 7 fights, and he is the new exciting tough as nails, heart of a lion up-and-comer. I guess that's why so many people are wishing to bet him, my advice is - don't. He won't be able to take Aldo down, he doesn't have crisp powerful boxing to hurt him. Some fights are 50/50, this one isnt. If something accidentals happens, bad weight cuts, injuries, brain damage, which Aldo might have taken since he got beat up badly for a round versus Yan because the referee just didn't like him apparently then Vera *might* win. Do we know if Aldo has his head clear from the last beating he took inside the 5th, no we dont, But that's why we get good money for him and he did show incredibly good skill for the first 3 rounds of the fight versus a total killer in Yan, domination portions of it making it competitive. This is only a 3 round fight too, versus a person who utilizes mostly kicks, something Aldo is famous for, no crisp powerful boxing, no good takedowns. Aldo wins this fight.

Stephen Thompson vs Geoff Neal
Yet another pick 'em fight, and that's for a reason. Let's just list all the x factors down since that is a fight that is made of those.
Wonderboy

37 years old, dropped in quite a few of his fights, Luque was able to pressure and hurt him
2 broken hands since his last fight, 1 year lay off, he might break them again early, what then?
smaller cage, unable to utilize good movement, easier to be pressured
fighting against a more diverse, just as powerful, faster, younger version of Prime Woodley

Neal

Fighting a way more experienced striker, who is arguably the hardest style to prepare for in the UFC
Experiencing severe health problems, by his words, which might have affected him
Coached by a specialist that will surely have a plan in place if they picked Wonderboy fight

You see why this is a pick 'em fight. Neal is extremely diverse striker, has lots of power, good chin, great speed, if Woodley ,not being this, hurt Wonderboy twice in a bigger cage that favours Wonderboy's movement, what would younger Neal do to older Wonderboy? That is why this line is dead even. However, Wonderboy is one of the best strikers in the ufc, he embarrassed Whittaker, Masvidal, Luque and in my opinion + the opinion of the person who created the judging rules he also beat Till. We have possibly one of the best strikers in the UFC, that has made a career of stuffing takedowns, training with his brother in law - Chris Weidman who used to be one of the best wrestlers in the UFC. Wonderboy won't be held down for a long time on the ground, so this will be a striking battle and he is by far the more technical striker. Wonderboy here is fighting a battle against his *possibly* fading reflexes, chin and a smaller cage. I really fucking hope he knows what he is doing if he does that's a win for him. But you did see the reasons why Neal might take this, and that's why it's a pick 'em. I believe the line on Wonderboy by decision is waaaay too wide at +350, that's insane. But other than that I would avoid betting on this fight, there are no clear picks here and it will most likely be a fight that once it ends we will have our answers, but we have no way of knowing them before it starts.

CreateYoureReality NFL Week 17 Analysis and Picks (Last week of regular season!!!😀 )

Weeks 15 and16 Recap: Hello! I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and New Year! The stats in the recap are just of week 15. I did not make a post or any plays on week 16, as I was busy playing an online poker tournament, here in New Jersey. My apologies for slowing down a bit this year, it has been rather busy here. We have one more week to get it in before PLAYOFFS?!., Lets see what value we can find.
Singles (4-4 -1.03u)
Parlays (0u) All Free Bets
Teasers (1-0 +8u)
BBDLS (0-5 -2.7u)

Sunday Games

Dallas at New York Giants: Potentially a huge game for either one of these teams. Whichever of these teams wins gets to sweat the Eagles/Washington game and pray for an Eagles win. Dallas has been playing well over the last quarter of the season holding opponents to 24, and their offense has been clicking averaging over 30ppg over that span. Even with the defensive improvement, they are still one of the worst defenses in the league. New York on the other hand has a top 10 defense. It has been doing a fantastic job this year, struggling a bit over the last two weeks but overall is still one of the better defenses in the NFL. Their offense scores a pedestrianly average of 17 ppg but on the bright side seems to have figured out their turnover problem with Daniel Jones. Taking into account full season stats, the algo has this as NY -2. Taking into account only the last 4 games the algo has this as DAL -4.5. The bets the algo favors the most are teasing either team +6.5 or more. It predicts the highest likely game script includes mostly low scoring games due to it being a divisional rematch to end the season and potentially get in the playoffs.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: A very important game for Cleveland, not so much for Pittsburgh. Cleveland needs the win to guarantee a playoff birth, while PIT has already punched their ticket. In fact, PIT will be resting Big Ben, in order to have him at his freshest for a playoff run. Cleveland will be returning most of the players that were out due to Covid vs. the Jets. They will still be missing 2 LB and 2 Safetys, but the majority of the key offensive players have returned. For Pittsburgh they will see Mason Rudolph step in at QB, the last team he faced the Browns, him and Myles Garret got into a fight that saw Garret swing a helmet on an unprotected head of Rudolph. The algo loves Cleveland to come in and take care of business, however it only likes a spread of -7/8. It was 4.5 with Big Ben but with the news of him out, it adjusts about a field goal.

New York Jets at New England: Boy oh boy, what a dumpster fire we have here. Both teams out of playoff contention, and both seeing some of their worst lows. (Although the Jets are more used to this at the end of the season) Jets have had some recent success, winning their first two games and beating two pretty good teams in the process. Now they go for three in a row to close out the season vs the struggling offensively, New England Patriots. They will be sitting Cam Newton and starting Stidham this week. He has looked even worse than Cam, so I don't really know what we can expect out of their offense this week. The algo leans about as close to a pickem as the computer can produce so you can imagine with the Jets catching points and odds on the moneyline, we will be looking their way.

Minnesota at Detroit: This game is currently on my dog or avoid list. There is to much uncertainty with the Lions QB and who is starting. All we do know is that Dalvin Cook for the Vikings is not going to be playing this game due to a death in the family. With the missing key offensive player and the unknown with Covid who the starters will be, this game is an avoid. (Possibly find value with the dog if Stafford is announced playing right before game time)
With two mediocre defenses (The Lions just giving up) this could be a good game for a same game parlays on some props. Jefferson and Thielen are both close to breaking records. Cook is out so backup RB should get more touches...

Atlanta at Tampa Bay: This is a tricky one for me. The algo loves TB to take care of business at home and favors them by 6. However, I personally am weary of both this and the Saints game as neither team NEEDs a win and only the Saints can positively change their playoff seating with a win *(and a GB loss). I think it is possible and highly favorable for both teams to rest their key starters in order to give them a makeshift bye week. Because of that, I will mostly stay away from this game and the Saints game.

Baltimore at Cincinnati: A divisional game that is a "Win and you're in" game for Baltimore. They will be taking on the Bengals, that have actually looked great in their last few games. However, the algo does heavily favor the Raven's to get it done on the road to close out the season. It does think that two TDs might be a bit much though. Because of that I lean Baltimore winning and clinching a playoff birth, but will either look Cincy on the points or stay away from the spread.

Miami at Buffalo: A VERY important game for Miami. Win, and you're in. Lose, and most likely the Colts are in. Fitzmagic came in in the last 3 mins and gave them the win and this opportunity, however he is out with Covid this game so no Magic to be had. It will be down to Tua vs. whoever Buffalo decides to play. Personally I think the value is on Miami. Who knows who and how long the Buffalo starters will play, given they are already in the Playoffs. But, it would be sweet for them to keep a divisional rival out of the post season. My algo likes Buffalo, but my gut says Miami.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: I shouldn't have to talk about this game. Indy knows they need a win and help, and Jacksonville already STUNNED INDY to open the season. It should be a confident grind of a win...but Rivers feeling defeated and needing help to make the post season, this might be a trap game.

Green Bay at Chicago: Ugh, such a hard game. My algo has GB as -3.5 Favorites (6.5 if they were at home) I think the loss of one of GBs key O-line might have a greater effect on them than one of their star offensive scorers. Rodgers is one of the best when given time, but take that time from him and he starts to crumble. Chicago has been playing as well as they could hope for down the stretch. They need a win or a loss and some help to be in.

Tennessee at Houston: Henry needs like 223 yards to reach the 2000 yard club. Houston is one of the worst teams in the league at stopping the run? Seems like a recipe for some TEN running and a play action pass or two for some big chunks. EZ$ Tenn

New Orleans at Carolina: The had NO as -6.5 here, but the loss of Kamara has to be worth at least 3 points right now given NO is already a little shorthanded without Thomas. Carolina has been one of those teams that just hasn't quit. They keep playing and will probably be a good team to bet on next year as they develop. Personally, a divisional game where NO doesn't improve their playoff standings with a win (unless GB loses to CHI) might be a recipe for CAR to have some easy shots at covering, backdoor covering, and maybe just winning outright. Like most of the teams with their ticket punched, there is a good chance they rest starters in the second half just to preserve the health of key players.

Seattle at San Francisco: Except for the loss to the Giants, Seattle has been on fire in the second half. Their offense hasn't had the firepower it started the season with, but it seems to be adding some more short passing into its game and finding a better balance. While the defense seems to be clicking on on cylinders. They have given up 17 or less in their last 5. As for San Fran: " Shanahan said he doesn't expect Garoppolo (ankle) to return this week. Wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk (ankle) and Deebo Samuel (hamstring), left tackle Trent Williams (elbow), defensive end Jordan Willis (ankle) and cornerback Richard Sherman (calf) have already been ruled out. Kicker Robbie Gould was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list"
I think this is the best odds you are going to get on SEA winning the whole thing. I gave this play out to my premium subscribers a few weeks ago, but I like (and bet) SEA having the best odds/price to make it out of the NFC. If by some lucky chance GB and NO lose today, SEA can still get the number one seed and a first round bye. They are currently +1200 to win it all and have (in my algo's opinion) the best QB in the NFC right now.
🤑🤑🤑 GO GET THAT MONEY 🤑🤑🤑

Las Vegas at Denver: This is one of my throwaway games. My algo has this as LV -2, however both teams are out of the playoffs and this game leaves the door open for anyone to flop, or try their heart out. Personally I love Derrick Carr and I think the Raiders are primed to make a deep playoff run next given a few additions to defense.

Arizona at LA Rams: Hmmmm... Kyler Murray is playing(hurtish) Arizona basically needs a win and in. Rams also need a win, but can still make it with a loss. Both teams should be playing their harderst, the biggest variable is going to be the Rams QB. Goff is hurt and will not play. Rams will be going with recently upgraded from the practice squad, Worford. He will be playing in his first NFL game, and I expect the Rams to lean very heavy on the run. Worford IS a mobile-ish QB, so it isn't out of the question for him to take the rams to a good low scoring, defensive win. If he can just make 4-5 good throws on key downs and NOT turn the ball over, I think the Rams come out on top. But if he can't handle the NFL speed and commits even one turnover, then AZ becomes the favorite to win.

Washington at Philadelphia: Last game of the night! Flexed here because it has massive implications in the NFC East. If Washington wins, they win the NFC East and make the playoffs as the 4 seed. If Philly wins, then the winner of the Dallas/NYG game will be the winner of the NFC East. Washington let go of their rookie QB and Alex Smith will start with a "hurt" calf. Philly has 9 players on the injury report and is expected to reach deep into their reserves to field players for this one. My algo slightly favors Washington to win, but given 3-5 points at home, on primetime, I lean heavy Philly.

Singles (91-116-1, -30.11u)

NYG ml (1u to win 1.1u)
N. Chubb ATTS and Browns ml (2.4u to win 2u)
NYJ ml (1u to win 1.35u)
NYJ +3.5 (2.6u to win 2u)
Justin Jefferson 70+ Rec Yards and 1+Tds Over (3u to win 6.45u)
Justin Jefferson 100+ Rec Yards Over (1u to win 1.8u)
Justin Jefferson 125+ Rec Yards Over (1u to win 4.5u)
Adam Thielen 68.5 Rec Yards Over (1.15u to win 1u)
Marvin Jones 64.5 Rec Yards Over (1u to win 1u)
Calvin Ridley Over 87.5 Rec Yards (2.3u to win 2u)
Mark Andrews Over 50.5 Rec Yards (2.3u to win 2u)
Dez Bryant ATTS and Ravens win (1u to win 3u)
Buffalo 1Q ml (1.2u to win 1u)
CHI +4.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
Derrick Henry Over 118.5 Rush Yards (5u to win 4u)
Brandin Cooks Over 69.5 Rec Yards (3.33u to win 3u)
CAR ml (0.5u to win 1.13u)
CAR +6 (2.2u to win 2u)
LAR if the points go back to 3...and the money line if it goes over 125.
John Wolford Over 25.5 Rush yards (5u to win 4u)
Tyler Higbee Over 24.5 Rec Yards (1.1u to win 1u)
Tyler Higbee Over 2.5 Rec (1u to win 1.07u)
J. Hurts 56.5 Rush Yards Over (1.1u to win 1u)

Parlays (6-30, +33.96u)

Ravens ml, Browns ml, Seattle ml, TEN ml, J. Wolford ATTD and Rams win (2u to win 27.73u)
Ravens, Browns, TEN, Seattle, Indy, NYG +6.5, NYJ +6.5 (FB to win 110.56u)
Ravens, Browns, TEN, Seattle, Indy, TB, LV, NYG +3.5, NYJ ml, CAR +6 (5u to win 270u)

Teasers (4-4, +34.6u)

CLE -2.5, NYJ +8.5, NYG +8.5, LAR +8.5 and U48.5, SEA ml and U52.5 (3.86u to win 23.45u)

BBDLS (0-66, -50.24u)

I have 7 in for 9u

Futures plays:
Seattle to win the NFC (100u to win 600u)
Seattle to win the Super Bowl (83.33u to win 1000u)

Thank you everyone for reading. Good luck to all!!

CreateYoureReality NFL Week 12 Sunday Games Analysis and Picks

Week 11 Recap: Aye! First week I don't post pics here and it's our biggest week of the year! Luckily for us, and all of my private subs that received my gold play, we had a nice win! (56u for us!)
Since I did not post any of my picks in this sub, I will not count them towards this subs win/loss totals. As always, only bets posted prior to game time on this sub count towards my totals so you (the readers) can have as accurate of an ROI (of this subs posts) as possible. That ROI is considerably lower than my private subs, but has been winning since the inception of this sub a few seasons ago. Lets keep the train rolling and finish the year strong! 💪🤑
Singles (0u)
Parlays (0u)
Teasers (0u)
BBDLS (0u)
Hopefully everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving. Now let's get back to work!

Sunday Games

Las Vegas at Atlanta: This week we open up with a game that features last weeks primetime losers. The Raiders lost to the Chiefs last week, but to be honest it was one of the best games I have ever seen Carr play. His focus looked dialed in. However, as is the Raiders current weakness, their defense could not hold off Patty Cakes and the Chiefs on a last minute drive.
Atlanta is also coming off a loss. They were taken down by Taysum Hill and the Saints. Ryan was sacked like a bajillion times and Hill looked...OK.
Both teams have a potent offense and weak-ish defenses. Both teams defenses rank in the top 15 in rush stopping, but in the bottom 3 in pass stopping. This would make you think that there is going to be a ton of passing, a ton of yards, and a ton of points. However, there seems to be heavy sharp action on the Under and the total has even dropped almost a full Field Goal since open.
I am a little nervous as my algo has this game closer to a pick-em than a Raiders road favorite by a FG. However, the Raiders have scored at least 30 in 3 straight, they are protecting Carr well (1 sack in total in last 3) and they are 4-1 ATS on the road this year. My algo does see more value on the Falcons catching points if we are looking at spreads (now that it has crossed to 3) However I can't trust the Falcons (all three of their wins came against losing record teams...Vikings, Panthers, Broncos), and the Raiders were my dark horse this year so I will RAREly take against them.
Give me the Silver and Black to win.

Arizona at New England: This game is quite the conundrum. You would think if NE had playoff aspirations and an opportunity to beat this AZ Cards team that they would have taken care of business last week vs the struggling Texans. However as we saw, they could not.
Arizona is coming off some rest after having played last Thursday in a road loss to the Seahawks.
Who really knows what to expect in this game. The only thing that has me reluctant to hop all over Arizona is NE is home (cold outside weather compared to the AZ dome) and Sony Michel should be back for NE. And it looks like my algo and Vegas algo came up with a similar line as my algo likes AZ 25, NE 23 for a AZ -2 and total (almost the same as what it launched at)
IF this was a normal QB All of that info would have me riding the home team catching the two. However, Belichick notoriously has trouble with mobile QBs(as they are generally harder to scheme against because they have more nodes in their decision tree every play)
So, it seems as if this game is pretty evenly matched and that's most likely why Vegas opened it as a pick-em. Just let the market decide.
Since the winner of the game is close to a coin flip, we will look at other opportunities for wagers here.
Both teams have rushing QBs that are on pace to Challenge the overall best season rush TD leader (Cam Newton at 14) Currently Murray has 10 and Newton has 9. I would be looking for both players to take the opportunity to add to their totals if they are within 10 yards of the red zone.

NY Giants at Cincinnati: So Sad to see Burrow go down. Seriously. Him and Herbert look Fantastic and both (given some decent line play and eventually a defense) should make some runs in the years to come. Good news for the Giants (and anyone betting them) is Burrow was literally Cincinnati's way of winning. Without him, I fear(for Cincy) that they won't have a chance to win another game this year.
The Giants are fresh off a bye and before that an upset win over the Eagles. To be honest, with the way the Giants defense is playing, if Jones can continue to protect the ball on offense this Giants team has a good opportunity to pick up the NFC East. Even if they only win this game and Week17 vs the Cowboys that would put them at 5-10 (but 4-2 in the division) and most likely give them tiebreakers over the Washington and Cowboys if they shared a similar 5-10 record.
With a new QB starting for Cincy I think it is also important to note New York's defense has also held opponents without a touchdown in the first half for three straight games. Also, Mixon is done...Gio B is questionable. This could be a mirror of last weeks score in the Detriot-Carolina game...
Great teaser spot (NYG to win)

Cleveland at Jacksonville: This is one of the scariest favorites I will be riding today. It should be a gimmie game for Cleveland as they build momentum on an easy schedule to finish out the regular season and have a playoff birth. However, this week in particular, their defense is riddle with injury and Covid. Myles Garrett will miss his second consecutive game with coronavirus issues as will linebacker Sione TakiTaki. Cornerback Denzel Ward will also miss a few games with a knee injury. Kevin Stefanski said he expects the Browns to also be without fullback Andy Janovich, and defensive end Joe Jackson, who are on the list. Offensive lineman Chris Hubbard is also on the list, but Stefanski said he "has a chance" to return.
On the other side of the ball we have ANOTHER QB change. This time we will see Mike Glennon. I have NO idea why Jacksonville would do this. Lutton was playing fantastic. I am hoping it is because they would like to keep or improve their position in the draft order and they don't want to make the same mistake they made last year when Mustache Mania got them some press and a win or two, but hurt their draft order.
I would say the most reliable wager to look at in this game would be Chubb and Hunts props. They are the workhorses for this team and I expect Stefanski to utilize them as much as possible as to limit how much time his banged up defense has to spend on the field against a QB they have little to no film on.
Great teaser spot (Cleveland to win)

Carolina at Minnesota: Carolina off delivering a crushing upset to the Lions last week. Minnesota stepping off the Red Rocket ride as they were upset by the Cowboys last week. It is not 100% yet, but it looks like MIN will be without Thielen.
My algo has this one closer to a Pick-em/ Min -1 so it seems rather hard to lay three and the hook vs. a rested Teddy B, returning to face his old team. However, taking Carolina (even though I get the FG and hook) seems like a scary side as MIN has Jacksonville next week and with a win here could easily be 6-6 and it would make for a delicious hyped up match vs the Bears.
Still, if youre going to choose a spread side, my algo is leaning Carolina.
However, my algo is also saying, forget the spread. There is much better value to be found in props. Both of these teams have an offence that can move the ball. Both of these teams have a defense that is suspect. Min has a poor pass defense, while Carolina has a poor rush defense. I would look for the usual for Minnesota (Lean HEAVY on Dalvin Cook with some 2nd half play action passes to Jefferson) But I would also look at Teddy B to come back and have a day throwing against this MIN defense. Possible Same game parlay game.
Great teaser spot (Total Over) Games in Minn this year are averaging 62.8ppg and the o/u is 5-0

Tennessee at Indianapolis: THE REMATCH FOR THE AFC TITLE One of the more exciting match-ups. A repeat of a few weeks ago where the Colts got the best of the Titans. There are a few concerns before picking either side here. First and foremost is the Titans are getting 2/3s of the tickets and money, but the line has only dropped one point and has NOT crossed through 3. Logic would dictate if 70% of the money is on the team getting the FG here that books would lower it to 2.5 and encourage action on the home team, thus balancing the book. The fact that it hasn't yet, is worrisome for looking at TEN.
However on the other side, nine Colts did not practice this week, including offensive linemen Quenton Nelson (back/ankle) and center Ryan Kelly (neck). Defensive backs Rock Ya-Sin (illness), S Khari Willis (ribs/shoulder) S Justin Blackmon (illness) also sat out. DT Buckner, DE Autry and LB Okereke are ALL RULED OUT. Main components of the defense that is holding strong as one of the best this year. This might give Mr. Henry the opportunity to EAT even more than he did in the first match up (like 110 yards in that one) This has me hesitant to look at the Colts. But VERY EXCITED to look at Henry's props.
Great teaser spot (Tenn spread and/or Game total Over) Getting them up over the key numbers in a divisional battle where the Colts defense should be tested missing key players.

LA Chargers at Buffalo: The Chargers have given up 27 or more points in their last six straight games, but are coming off a win vs. the Jets. Herbert, as he has all season, looked fantastic. And the Charger defense, as it has all season, looked like trash. Buffalo hasn't played in two weeks. The last time they did saw them lose on a last second hail-mary pass to D Hop.
So, just like a few of the games today, both teams have decent offenses that can move the ball and sub par defenses that have trouble stopping anyone. Buffalo does have a slight defensive advantage here as they do have a better pass rush than the Chargers.
Buffalo will however be missing a few players for this one. John Brown is still out and offensive lineman Cody Ford was recently injured and will miss the rest of the season.
The Chargers could see a BIG BOOST if Austin Eckler starts in this one. Herbert has already shown he boosts the abilities of the players he is throwing too, if Eckler comes back in, the Chargers could get few wins to end the year.
My algo actually has this game as -1 and a 51 as the total so naturally my algo leans Chargers.
I do fear the fact that the Bills are coming off a hard loss and then a bye, I would be WAY more likely to back the Chargers straight up here if the Bills had Won the game before the bye. Either way, this game looks like a teaser opportunity just like the game before it.
Great teaser spot (LAC spread and/or Game total Over) Like it less if Eckler is not back yet

Miami at NY Jets: Well, well, well. Another Miami game, AND another Jets game. AT THE SAME TIME. Miami looked horrible last week in a loss to the Broncos (which if you read last week, we flagged as a do not bet Miami spot, trap from Vegas) The Jets also lost, but looked much better than they have all season.
This weeks Jets will be a little different, it looks like we are going to see the return of Sam Darnold. Which is interesting to me because halfway though the season I looked at the Jets schedule and thought their most likely games for a win in the back half of the season were weeks 11, 12, and 17. If they were tanking for a QB, wouldn't they still ride with Flacco, not caring about his overall record? I mean, they can still tank with Darnold, but why would they lower his trade value by letting him lose out the season before they trade him and draft a new QB? I feel like it's more likely they are trying to start him to get a win and increase his trade value right before the end of the year. Also, Miami has a decent defense, but their weakest link is their run defense and the Jets just so happen to have an ex-Miami player in FRANK GORE, THE AGELESS WONDER. Is it possible that the Jets get an early lead and lean on Gore to carry them to their first and only win of the season?! Hey, the Jets are winless, BUT they have won the first half in 7 of 10 of their last day games at home. Also, over 80% of the tickets and 75% of the $ is on the Dolphins, yet the line has held steady at 7 and even dropped to 6.5 in some places!! Maybe a little sprinkle sprinkle action? 🤑

New Orleans at Denver: Another scary -6.5 spread. Both of these teams have formidable defenses. Denver's is average to below average, but they seem to do better at home in the altitude. (more than likely its because opposing offenses aren't used to it) This game has one of the lower totals on the day and there is increased RLM on the under. Taysom Hill won his first game, but it wasn't pretty. Now teams can build film on him and it's possible learn to contain him better. Denver has one of the lower red zone scoring allowed and Chubb and Reid are waking up this defense line as the season progresses. This reeealllly seems like the best opportunity for the lowest scoring game of the day and I will look to avoid ALL props in this one EXCEPT team totals and Field Goals.
In such a low scoring game script, I can't help but look at the spread with the home team catching almost a TD, it might also be an opportunity for another sprinkle on the 🐶
Great teaser spot (Game Total Under) Outside of a game with multiple defensive scores, I cant see either team hitting 25 points, teasing the total up to 50 and taking the under seems like a no brainer.
Update: Denver has no QBs. Covid. Dunno if the game will be played now...

San Francisco at LA Rams: No Jimmy G, No George Kittle. It is looking like Samuel and Moestart will be back for San Fran. Rams basically injury free.
San Fran is coming off a bye week and returning some players for a divisional game vs. a team that hasn't beaten them since 2018. You would think it's a no brainer ride with the dog catching points. However, the Rams are looking nice. As predicted as a gold play to my private subs, they took down the Bucs last week and now look to take control of the lead in the NFC West. They are also 4-0 at home since moving to their new stadium and have already toppled the Dallas offence with Dak, the Giants and the Bears defenses, and Seattle and chef Russ.
My algo does lean LA to get the win here and keep their home stadium record undefeated, however with RLM on the Under and most of the bets on LA with the line not moving at all, it is toooo dangerous to lay a full TD in a divisional game.
Great teaser spot (Rams to win) Rams should keep the train rolling and exact revenge for their 2019 season sweep by and this years loss to the 49ers

Kansas City at Tampa Bay: Why the fuck is this not the primetime night game? You're telling me if you are the schedule coordinator you think the public would rather watch the Chi/GB game? Give me a break. Anyway, it is what it is.
KC coming off a beautiful to watch win vs. the Raiders and Tampa Bay coming off a rough loss vs the Rams. Both on primetime last week. As expected 90% of the money is on KC right now... But the line has barely moved.
My algo has this as a 28-27 KC -1 prediction. So you know that means we HAVE to ride with the home team catching a FG and the hook. Besides, Brady has had some struggles this year, but only vs teams that have had a much better pass rush. KC pass rush just let the Raiders put up huge games, the panthers put up a ton...
Give me the Bucs in a bounce back game. With the Chiefs needing another 4th quarter comeback from Mahomey to stay in the race for the top seed in the AFC.
Great teaser spot (Tampa Bay spread) Getting this Brady lead team 10 points safety net in a game they win outright at least 25% of the time? EZ$

Chicago at Green Bay: Above, I asked why this wasn't the 4pm game and KC/TB the night game in this spot? It's because Vegas knows everyone and their mother will have GB ml tied into their Sunday parlays...and the Bears are going to win. 😱🙈
Game opened at 7/7.5 and when Mitch "the Bitch" was named starter it has moved up to 9/9.5. 🤨🤔
However, I think we will actually see Mitch "make you My Bitch"😎 in this game. Bears defense is legit. Probably only 4 or 5 I would place ahead of them. GB has been very unreliable over the last few weeks (loss to minn, ez win vs 49ers, barely win vs Jacksonville ...) I could Easily see the Bears holding Rodgers to 24 or less in this game. That means to cover the spread Mitch only has to score 15? With his defense giving him at least 1 or 2 great field positions... 🤑
My algo has this as GB -4.5 so I have NO Idea why the game opened over a TD AND has moved higher. The only logical guess I can make at that is the public money is all over Green Bay and Vegas loves taking the Bears to cover in this game.

Ravens at Steelers: Will not be written about. Too many variables, just avoid this game.

Seattle at Philadelphia: I will have Seattle Moneyline in any parlays/BBDLS/Teasers. Not only because my algo favors them to win, but because I LOVE having my parlays tied up with the Monday night favorite. When the wagers are still live going into the game, it allows me to make spread hedges with the dog. Also, since I have the favorite, I am most likely getting the best price on the favorite at the beginning of the week, and also the best price on the underdog just before game time. How lucky would it be if we have parlays live going into Monday night with Seattle moneyline and the spread for Philly gets all the way up to +7! Dream hedge opportunity 😍

Singles (68-86, -25.16u)

Cam Newton 42.5 Rush Yards Over (1.06u to win 1u)
Kyler Murray 51.5 Rush Yards Over (1.15u to win 1u)
NYG -9.5 (1u to win 1.48u)
Chubb 85.5 Rush Yards Over (1.4u to win 1u)
Chubb to score and Browns to win (1.05u to win 1u)
Justin Jefferson 73.5 Rec Yards Over (1.37u to win 1u)
Teddy B 255.5 Pass Yards Over (0.55u to win 0.5u)
Robby Anderson 5.5 Rec Over (0.8u to win 0.5u)
Curits Samuel 4.5 Rec (0.5u to win 0.5u)
Eckler Anytime TD (2u to win 2.5u)
Josh Allen Anytime TD (0.5u to win 0.55u)
Keenan Allen 77.5 Rec Yards Over (1.12u to win 1u)
Diggs 84.5 Rec Yards Over (1.18u to win 1u)
Cook and Henry 1TD or more each (1u to win 3u)
NYJ +7 (1.1u to win 1u)
NYJ ml (0.5u to win 1.3u)
NYJ 1H ml (1u to win 1.85u)
NO/DEN First to 25 points: Neither (2u to win 2.4u)
NO/DEN First to 25 points: Neither (0.5u to win 2.15u)
TB +3.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
TB ml (1u to win 1.6u)
Brady and Mahomes 2+ TDs each (2.5u to win 2.5u)
Bears +9.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
Mitch T Anytime TD (0.5u to win 3.5u)
Mitch T First TD scorer (0.5u to win 20u)
Mitch T Rush Yards Over
Allen Robinson 65.5 Rec Yards Over \ These two aren't in yet, looking for lines. If I find it and bet it I will post in comments**

Parlays (6-23, +37.76u)

NYG ml, CLE ml, Bears (FB to win 7.07u)
NYG ml, CLE ml, LV ml, LAR ml, SEA ml (~~25u~~ 0u to win 98.8u) This is part of a promo. If a loss, the bet is returned in cash.
I have a few more in, all FreeBees

Teasers (2-2, +27.38u)

LAC O44.5, CAR O44.5, CLE 0, LAR 0 (4u to win 11.59u)

BBDLS (0-50, -41.89u)

I have a few in, but all but 3 (2.2u) are with bonus dollars or free bets. Feels like a good week 😉

Thank you for Reading. Good luck to everyone!

CreateYoureReality Week 3 NFL Analysis and Picks

Thursday Night Recap: Well, I think that game told us everything we need to know about JAX. They are going to be very inconsistent. To play the games they played in week 1 and 2 and then come home and put up a stinker against a bottom team in the league... So, the Jags are now in my list of teams in 2020 that I will bet as dogs, but never as favorites.
We did ok on the evening. +1 Unit and our BBDLS is live going into the UFC fight tomorrow.
Singles (1-1,+2u)
Parlays (0-1, -1u)
Teasers (none)
BBDLS (still alive) Update, Costa got rocked. BBDLS dead!
Weeks 3 is upon us. Lets check out the match-ups! :D

1PM Games

LV at NE: Both teams looked pretty great offensively last week. Cam is the only other player I still seem some value on for MVP. The most important thing to me in this game is Coach vs Coach.
Is there more confidence in Gruden and his defense vs Bellichek calling for Cam? OR Bellichek and his defense at home vs Derrick Carr traveling across the country?
This early in the season is the time when its any given Sunday, but on a short week for LV and a full week for NE, don't see NE giving this one up at home very often. The spread is a bit high, but NE looks like a great candidate for a Teaser.

LAR at Buf: First undefeated matchup of the day. It seems as if the Rams have a better pass rush, but the Bills have the better overall defense. The Rams are traveling East again after flying to Philly last week and back to LA.
Goff looks great this year. He Superbowl slumped last year; having no running game hurt him tremendously. But, this year it seems as if the team is finding an offensive rhythm and giving Goff enough time to spread the ball around.
My Algo is high on LA and says this spread should be LA -2. Since our Algo has LA at a 55% win, win or lose, this is an easy +EV Bet on the Rams. Also another great candidate for a Teaser.

Hou at Pit: Oh boy, am I excited to see this one! PIT really let me down last week allowing DEN, with a back up QB, to get a back door cover. HOU SHOULD be undervalued as they are 0-2. However, lets remember both of their losses came to the Chiefs and Ravens...
I have this weird feeling this is going to be one of those road dog gets an early lead and the favorite has to battle back to try and last drive win or not. It is extremely hard for 0-2 teams to make the playoffs so I look for all the 0-2 teams to give MAXIMUM POWAH! The Texans are the best 0-2 team IMO.
With a middle of the road total, the Texans not only look like another good candidate for a Teaser but have value on the spread and the ML.

SF at NYG: What will happen in this game?! NY Giants, Saquan, out. SF, Everyone out. I have gone against SF in both weeks and so far they are 1-1. If there was another week to fade them, I am sure this has to be it. Back to back road game, Missing like 10 key players including the QB and Star TE...
I can't see laying points with SF with those conditions, that leads me to believe there is value on the NY points side. BTW, another 0-2 team. You know they want to compete till the end.

Ten at Min: I am extremely torn on this one. I think TEN D still has some work to do to become playoff ready. But, the Min D has a ton of work to do just to win a game... I feel like MIN and PHL are on down years but it is sooooo hard for me to bet against Zimmer, especially at home. Depending on game script, this could be Dalvin Cooks wake up game.

Was at Cle: This seems like I could give almost the same analysis as the Cincy/CLE game. Cle should put this away but 7 is a big number so be weary of backdoor covers. If CLE wants a shot at the extra wildcard spot this year, they NEED to take care of business this game. Washington on back to back road games and a non-favorable schedule this year. This should be good practice for two teams trending in opposite directions.
CLE is my Favorite pick in the teasers this week.

Cin at Phl: Well, well well. The only battle of two 0-2 teams. I have been riding the Eagles suck train for the first two weeks now, and Joe Burrow getting two backdoor covers on his first two starts has me wanting to ride that train again.
The Eagles did look ok for the first half of last weeks game, but after a pick from Wentz, the energy shifted and the Eagles were left behind. Even IF the Eagles can pull it together as a team to get a win, I still like the young Burrow to fight till the end of games.
Might even sprinkle a little ML action on Cincy here...Eagles D still feels like hot trashhhhh

Chi at Atl: Our last 0-2 team (that has a chance) Chi has looked...ok. I take it back, Tenn isnt the worst 2-0 team, Chicago is. Without an outlier performance 4th quarter in game one and the Giants losing Saquan in game 2, Chi could theoretically be 0-2. ATL defense is starting off the year like they did last year, by just getting dressed but not really playing. This is looking like another big offensive year for Matt Ryan, followed by some horrible coaching decisions and stupid losses by his defense playing the worst zone defense known to man.
In this game though? I have to side with the 0-2 home favorite. There is a reason they are 0-2 vs a 2-0 team and still giving points. You don't see MIN as a clear favorite and they have a coach that knows what he is doing!

NYJ at Ind: I cant write about this game. I very much dislike Rivers and don't like taking him when he has to cover more than a TD. I already gave him his chance in week 1. I think he is full capable of winning a blowout in this game and dominating the news cycle next week, but I just cant take this many points with anyone other than the Chiefs and Ravens

4PM Games

Car at LAC: All the interesting games to talk about today and then this game is squeaked in there. CMC, gone. Tyrod Taylor, out for another week at least. Herbert...dropping sherbet scoops out to everyone.
Honestly, offensively, CAR didn't look that bad. Teddy looks like young Watson, in that he's chased everywhere but still makes some things happen. LA with a 1st time starting backup QB that didn't know he was playing... had success and honestly Herbert looked a lot like Drew Lock last year. This game has some small potential for an upset and 6.5 for a 2nd time starting QB is....interesting but I think the LA defense is what carries this one to a victory.

Det at AZ: This is one of those games that scares me. Every week there is a game with a 6-9 point spread where there is an upset. Outside of the Bengals and Texans, this is that game on my radar this week. But i am already over betting on DET for the year. AZ has started on fire. Is this DET defense that gave up 21 to Trubitsky, IN THE 4TH QUARTER, gonna slow down the red hot cards? I'm not stepping on that train. This game looks to be my stay away game. Lets see how these teams develop before we put too much stock in them.
This is a potentially great game for props though!

TB at Den: Still not sure what's going on with either of these two teams. TB looked decent last week, but it was vs CAR... Brady is not yet in rhythm but he's getting decent protection. Denver backdoor covered last week after Lock went down with an injury, being replaced by Jeff Driskle. Jeff had a decent game and screwed all the Steelers spread bettors. I think what's more interesting then a spread in this one would be the Under. With QB changes for Den, Brady not yet in form, and both teams having decent defenses, this game looks primed for some weird 16-10.

Dal at Sea: The Titans game and these next two were the hardest for me to judge on such little data. I am obviously very high on SEA this year predicting them to win the NFC and have a great shot at a Superbowl this year. I am conversely not that hot on Dallas. I think the whole NFC East is a work in progress. Dallas is full of offense, but until they can have a healthy season with a top 5 defense, I don't think they can go all the way. This years defensive losses are particularly rough and it's only week 2. Both teams have offenses capable of lighting it up at any time so for that reason I think it will be in both teams interest to keep the other offence off the field. This means sustained drives to eat up as much clock as possible. I also think that Dallas will be awfully full of themselves (warranted or not) from last weeks come from behind win. In a game where I am going to contrarily take the under, I must also take all those points.

Sunday Night Football

GB at NO: The last game of the day, also very hard one to dissect with little data. It seems as if Rodgers is coming out going for an MVP type season. Brees on the other hand looks...old. My algo has GB +1.5 here and normally I would think Vegas was just shading because NO is a team the public likes to bet on at home. However the public perception is NO lost on primetime as a favorite last week while GB is 2-0 with back to back 40 point offensive performances. And they are still giving GB 3 and in some books 3.5...
This worries me. Vegas is usually more right than wrong and primetime games tend to lean opposite of public perception. I may have to take NO just based on the fact that 70% of the moneyline money is on GB yet they are still a 3 point favorite.

I am pretty light on wagers this week. I am currently moving and so I have had a little less time to look over the full cards and props. I do like weeks 3-5 as a sweet spot for underdog value as the markets try to find the right prices for each team.

Singles (9-10, -3.15u)

LAR +2.5 (2u to win 2u)
HOU +4.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
Kareem Hunt 19.5 Rec Yards Over (1.15u to win 1u)
DAL +5.5 (1.1u to win 1u)

Parlays (0-3, -6.5u)

Israel Adesanya ML, CLE ml, IND ml, NE ml, BAL ml (9u to win 33.87u)
Kamara 75 Rush yards and TD (Raiders/NO TNF), Cincy +6.5, Ten ml, IND ml, Dal +5.5, BAL ml (3u to win 97u)

Teasers (1-1, +38.85u)

CLE -1, ATL +3.5, TB PK and U48.5 (6u to win 15.6u)
NE Pk, CLE PK, LAR +8.5, NYG +10.5, HOU +10.5, CIN +12.5, BAL +3.5 (4u to win 24u)

BBDLS (0-4, -3.4u)

I have 10 BBDLS in for a total of 9.2u. They are all 10+ team parlays getting greater than 100-1 odds. If I typed them all up it would double the size of this page. These are all most likely losing tickets but if one hits I will post the screenshot.

DraftKings $2 Million Pick em National Championship $1Million for First
Week 2 (3-2) Better! Its expected that as I gather more data, these picks should better. Lets keep this train rolling to its resting place for the remainder of the year, :D 5-0 city!
Overall (4-6)
Week 3

HOU +3.5
CINCY +5.5
LAR +1.5
NYG +3.5
DAL +4.5

Thanks for reading and good luck to all! :D

MLB (Main Slate) Pitchers & Stacks + Sports Betting Picks!

MLB Stacks & Plays from CheatSheetPros! << Up arrow if you like the content! >>
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
MLB Blitz continues headed into the holiday week! Yesterday we had Shane Bieber who went 5.0 innings with 10 Ks, Glasnow who went 5.1 with 3 ER but saved the day with 9 Ks and then our punt Antone who was cheap and went 5.0 with 1 ER and 6 Ks. We stacked White Sox (8 runs) and Tigers (10 runs) in our article. I’ve been working hard on the NFL CheatSheet for 2020 and excited to mix in some NFL breakdowns this year!
PITCHERS I AM LOOKING AT:
MAX SCHERZER – I could see a full “fade” here on this short slate if you want to be different for GPP. His last 3 starts he has put up 14, 34 and 7 DK points but his BABIP is .365 so he is going to start getting a little more luck on his side. He has a 3.29 xFIP and allowing a .260 average. Priced at 10,400 on DK there is some risk here today with his recent form but with no many options you could go either way.
ZAC GALLEN – Now we come down to 9200 for Gallen who has a tough matchup vs. this SFG team that is 6th in their last 10 game power rankings and rank top 5 in our all team stats over the last 14 days. He has been stellar this year and coming into the start in great form. He has put up 28, 24, 19, 27 and 22 DK points in his last 5 starts. His ERA is 1.80 but his xFIP indicates it should be closer to 3.67 which is still solid. Only allowing a .182 batting average.
DINELSON LAMET – We get a cheap price tag on Lamet today at only 8800 on DK. His last two starts he was priced at 9900 and 9800. Lamet has a solid K9 ratio at 11.5 this year and was 12.9 last year. He is facing a COL team that is striking out a whopping 26% of the time over the last 14 days and he is a -180 favorite. Padres should win this game and Lamet should get the win which is +4 points. Lamet has been sliding a little as he put up 37.8 DK points, then fell down to 25 and 22 and then 12 and 17 on his last two starts. He has upside with his 37.8 DK points going 6.2 innings, 1 ER and 11Ks for a high this year.
ZACH PLESAC – Only 7600 today on DK and has a soft matchup vs. KC. Plesac has put up 25, 28, 19 and 38 DK points in his last 4 starts and those combined for 27.0 innings, 4 ERs and 30 strikeouts. He just faced KC in his last start in KC and went 6.0 innings, 1 ER and 6 strikeouts. CLE is a heavy favorite today and has the 3rd best bullpen behind him so he should lock down the win today. Love the matchup and price tag!
BRAD KELLER – If you want to pivot off Plesac or even match up with him you can use Brad Keller at only 6700. Keller has a 1.93 ERA this year and allowing a .177 batting average. There are some red flags though as he has an xFIP of 4.27 with a BABIP of only .230. I do like his BVP history vs. CLE as he has faced this team for 56 Abs and only allowing a .161 batting average with a 27% strikeout rate. GPP only.
KEVIN GAUSMAN – Gausman is the cheapest pitcher on the slate today at only 6100! He has put up 19, 18, 24, 22, 14 and 16 DK points over his last 6 starts and that is great value on his price tag of 6.1k. I mean across the last 4 in terms of X value you are roughly looking at 3x, 3x, 4x and 4x. Scherzer isn’t likely to push 4x today, I mean that would be 42+ DK points and he has only broke 30 DK points twice this entire season. Gausman has a good matchup vs. ARI who ranks 25th in the last 10 game power rankings and they fall into our “Low/Mid” range for fantasy points. He has faced them for 75 Abs and allowing a .240 batting average and a 27% strikeout rate. 5 of the projected starting lineup hitters are batting below .205. You can’t ask for a better matchup for a punt pitcher if you want to stack up some studs today!

STACKS TO CONSIDER:
SAN DIEGO PADRES VS. KYLE FREELAND (27TH BULLPEN) – Love this Padres who rank #1 in our last 10 game power rankings and they are 1st in team batting average, 3rd in runs per game and 3rd in OBP+ISO over the last 14 days. Stack is expensive with 4700-5000 average per player if you want all the studs in the lineup. Kyle Freeland is allowing a .295 batting average with an ERA over 4.00 this year. No everyone is going to argue that it includes Coors home starts so let’s look at the entire year last year on the road. He shows up with a 4.61 ERA and allowing a high 1.43 whip and .259 batting average through 56.2 innings. His last two starts he has given up 8 ER and only lasted a combined 6.1 innings with 19 hits. Vegas has the Padres projected at 4.9 runs and our model has them at 5.6 runs so we like the stack.
HOUSTON ASTROS VS. FRANKIE MONTAS (2ND BULLPEN) – Montas is a great pitcher and last year had a 2.63 ERA and allowing a low .230 batting average and has a great bullpen behind him. Vegas has Houston projected at only 4.2 runs and we have them at 5.1 so this could be a sneaky stack that is cheap! Montas has had two rough starts in a row. He gave up 4 ER in only 4.2 vs. LAA and then he gave up 9 ER in only 1.2 innings @ ARI. Houston is 4280 per player for the top 5 man graded stack. Springer, Reddick, Gurriel and Correa all over 10+ Abs off Montas and batting over .300.

SPORTS BETTING PICKS:
On Saturday we posted some picks with a play on Nationals +250 parlayed with over 9.5 and it easily covered with Nationals winning 10-4 for a +635 payout! Yesterday we added in 5 games that you could bet, parlay or play the run line and they ALL WON going 4-0 and we gave you two pitcher props taking the Bieber OVER and Glasnow OVER in strikeouts and they both easily covered for another 2 WINS! When I post games I let you know which sides I like and why but you have to decide the risk/reward vs parlaying them or betting them outright. I typically don’t straight bet games that are -200 or higher.
ATLANTA BRAVES -200 over MIAMI – Ian Anderson has been stellar this year for ATL with a 2.25 ERA and allowing a low .163 batting average. In his 2 starts he has went a combined 12.0 innings with 3 RS and 14 strikeouts. Now facing a MIA team that is striking out a whopping 27% of the time over the last 14 days and rank 21st in runs per game. ATL ranks 5th in our last 10 game power rankings, 2nd in runs per game, 1st in OBP+ISO and they face Jose Urena coming off the IL. They have faced him for 101 team Abs and they are hitting .337 off him with a low 19% strikeout rate. Parlay the ATL moneyline or bet the run line.
SAN DIEGO PADRES -180 – Padres are #1 in our last 10 game power rankings on our MLB Cheatsheets and they get to face Kyle Freeland and the 27th ranked bullpen AND they are at home. Padres at home have a wRC+ that jumps from 107.6 to 138.2 and their OBP+ISO goes from .521 up to .619. Our custom model on our cheatsheet post a total projected for every game and we have this at 5.6 to 4.0 with Padres on top. Parlay the moneyline or hit the run line.
CLEVELAND -210 – Cleveland ranks 2nd in our last 10 game power rankings and facing the Royals who rank 29th. Our model has this game at 4.8 to 3.3. Both pitchers are solid in this matchup with Plesac and Keller but the bullpen is the difference with CLE ranking 3rd on the year and KC rankings 21st. KC is “Ice/Cold” in our team production ranks and Cleveland is “Good”. Not my favorite play straight up because KC is due for a big win but I like it parlayed.
HOUSTON +125 parlayed with OVER 9.0 (pays +330) – Oakland is a -135 favorite tonight with Montas on the mount and the 2nd ranked bullpen. However, Montas has given up 13 ER in his last two starts and Houston is starting to heat up. If Houston can get to Montas and tag him for 4-5 runs I like Houston winning as a dog AND if they win I think there is a strong likelihood this game also goes OVER the total of only 9.0 runs.
MY BETS:
Houston +125 + over 9.0 runs: 1 unit pays +3.30 units
San Diego Padres parlayed Atlanta Braves: 2 units pays +2.60 units
Padres + Braves + Cleveland: 1 units pays 2.5 units.
Mega Parlay Dart (these area always fun):
Padres/Braves/Cleveland/Houston/Houston over 9.0: 1 units pays +14 units.
Thanks for reading,
Haze

CreateYoureReality Week 2 NFL Analysis and Picks

The first week is in the books. Week two is here! There is a decent amount of content in todays post so lets just jump right in.
Week 1 Singles (2-1. +1.23u) Parlay (0-1, -4u)
Week 2
1 PM GAMES
LAR at PHL: Overall I have the Rams getting 2nd in their division to the Seahawks and I have the Eagles as a dumpster fire this year. Week 1, helped me build confidence in that narrative :P
McVay has been great in September going 9-1. The Eagles D looks to be the same as it was last year. Pretty ok run stopping...but one of the worst secondary's. Maybe, with some time, the addition of Darius Slay will give them a boost. However, without any preseason I'd say the Rams WR core lead by Woods and Cupp should have the advantage. To add, on the other side of the ball, we see an above average Rams pass rush vs an abysmal Eagles O-line.

CAR at TB: Very interesting divisional matchup here. Both teams coming off a week 1 loss. CAR D is suspect. They gave up 34 to Derrick Carr...in their house! Now they face Tom Brady in a divisional game, home opener, after Brady had a slightly embarrassing(by his standards) season opener?!
Honestly, this should come down to the Bucs Defense. We saw in week one they ALSO gave up 34 points! However, they were facing Drew Brees and the Saints offence, in New Orleans. They should be able to play a little better at home vs Teddy B. Although!!! These basically same Bucs D did play Teddy B in week 5 of last year (he was playing for the Saints then) and they let him put up 31. The only real difference there is he had Sean Payton coaching and...oh yea, Michael Thomas who put up 182 and 2 TDs XD
Tampa Bay should be able to use the CAR defense to get back on track but there is no way I am laying this high of a spread until we see some consistency from Brady and his new club.
*This game is a good candidate for a teaser, bringing TB down through the key numbers.

DEN at PIT: After another 5/6 weeks, I think this would have been a fantastic game. But in week 2 with DEN losing Lindsey in week 1 and Sutton sitting week 1 and Questionable for week 2, I think the young Drew Lock and the Broncos will struggle in this one.
I think Pit will be the AFC Villain this year posting a decent record around 10-6, 11-5 and giving either KC or BAL one of their harder challenges in the playoffs. 7/8 is a lot of points for a PIT team whos focus is defense and establishing the run, but if they are going to cover an over TD spread, a home opener vs a rookie QB seems like one of the best spots to accomplish that.
Once Sutton comes back, Look for Denver to pick it up and roll off at least 5 or 6 wins this year. TJ WATT have another good game?
*Another good spot for a teaser pushing through all the key numbers

ATL at DAL: Two offensive teams looking for their first win. ATL had trouble stopping Russel Wilson who put up 38 and DAL held the Rams to 20, but despite putting up over 400 yards of offense, couldn't get it done.
Dallas lost a few key defensive players last week, this may leave some room for that interesting ATL offense to score some points. ATL D I am still unsure off. They closed out last year very well, but started last year and week one of this year with very poor showings. Who is going to show up defensively? At the start of the week, I think there was huge value on ATL and the Over, however throughout the week it has been bet down most places on both accounts.

SF at NYJ: I cant wait to see how the SF defense rebounds this week. I have them fighting with AZ for 3rd place in their division this year and probably missing the playoffs (hence my take of the AZ ml last week). Fortunately for SF they have an easier test in the Jets struggling offense. I definitely lean the under here more than either side. The fact that 4 out of 5 tickets and two-thirds of the money are on SF and the line has only moved -6 to -7 is a little concerning. Is SF going to go super bowl slump this year? And as I am writing this, it looks as if Kittle was recently ruled out for this game. Maybe a little Jets sprinkle? (ugh I hate saying that)
With the 49ers receiving core decimated and the jets having none visible but Crowder (who is also out this week)I do expect this to be a very clock management/running game. Look towards the underrrrrrr!

BUF at MIA: Fitzmagic or Fitpicksix? Most of these MIA games are going to come down to that. 250 yards and 2TDs or 45 throws and 3 INTs. As bad as they played vs NE last week, they were only down a field goal with under 10 to go in the 4th last week. On the other side, the Bills did look good last week hopping out to an early 21-0 lead, but they really didn't play a full game. Honestly this one feels like a game where BUF should just win...however, my watchbot has flagged this as another potential upset. The watchbot only takes into account line movements and bet percentages but it is heavy leaning on MIA this week.

MIN at IND: Both underwhelmed in their week 1 matchups. Two aging QBs one that is used to throwig 50 times a game and one that should throw 50 time a game but is only allowed to throw 15. First things first, Vikings D is NOT the same defense it has been of years past. Trades, Opt outs, and injuries have taken away some of the speed and athleticism that the Vikings D has had in previous years. Conversely the colts were supposed to come in with a good d from last year and in week 1 gave up 27 to the Jags!
Personally my algo is projecting the Vikings D to regress which in general will make their offence less productive. They rely a TON on Dalvin Cook to control the game and with a weak defense, against any decent offence they will probably be playing second halves from behind. This limits the ability to run, taking the ball out of cooks hands and putting it in Cousins. And Cousins is now without his safety blanket in Diggs. Rivers on the other hand, looked pretty good when he had time in the pocket. The few times he didn't he made some bad decisions but overall I expect Indy to win every game that they play a team that cant play 60. If they played the Jags later in the year, I think they smoke them. The Jags I feel are going to start hot, but eventually cool off and come back to earth.
Look for Indy to bounce back this week and be a little more of the team everyone thought they could be once getting Rivers.

DET at GB: This is a very intriguing game to me. I think DET is better than their perceived value and I am not sure Green Bay is as good as theirs. I know its week 2 but GB is a public favorite and everyone loves to hate on the lions. The lions will face a battle without their best WR but with almost 80 % of the tickets and money on GB and the spread barely changing, there seems to be some good contrarian value on the DET side.

NYG at CHI: I am not sure how to feel about this one. The Bears opened up with a win, but an ugly win it was. They did shit throughout the first 3 quarters and then it looked like the Lions D just stopped playing. Also, if it weren't for the early season butter fingers of Swift, the lions would have easily won that game in the waning seconds. On the other side, the Giants looked...meh. But, the Giants were facing one of the better defenses in the league and their star Barkley was held to abysmal numbers. I think he bounces back with a much better game vs a CHI defense that I am still uncertain of. As with all of the teams I like getting 7 or less, there is some value on sprinkling a little on the moneyline.

Jax at Ten: This is another game I am unsure how to perceive. Jax looked ok in their win vs the Colts and Ten looked, OK. If not for some kicking issues they would have had a much more convincing win. I think the bright star to watch on the JAX squad will be Robinson. This probably wont be one of his games, but he might have one of the most interesting rookie years. There was a TON of value on JAX for anyone who got this spread when it opened. Since then, it has dropped 4/5 points and most of the value has evaporated.
*Now that the line is lower, TEN looks great in a teaser

4 PM GAMES
WAS at AZ: Another hard one. Washington front 7 is pretty legit. I'm not sure how much I trust the offence and the team to put up complete games, but they will be an interesting team to watch develop. AZ this year I think will be a fantastic team to watch. But do I trust them to cover a TD? I LOVE taking AZ when they are a dog, but I am not fully sure how much I trust them to cover a full TD.

BAL at HOU and KC at LAC: Both of these should be wins. These teams meet in week 3 and could the storyline be anything other than the possibly two best teams in the league both at 2-0 fighting to stay undefeated?! The market isn't juicing the big favorites to hard yet. If you're gonna take the best teams, the beginning of the year is the time to do it.
*However, a safer bet might be including both of these in a teaser and bringing them down to win.

NIGHT GAME

NE at SEA: This for me personally will be one of my most anticipated matchups for the weekend. My favorite coach vs. who I believe is the MVP this year. Last week we saw the Patriots open up with a win, but CAM threw less than 20 times. Russ on the other hand was the opposite throwing almost 40 times and racking up stats. I expect this game to be a low scoring clock grind fest with SEA coming out on top. However, SEA is one of those...win a ton of games by 3 or less... type teams and I don't really feel comfortable laying points against a Bill B coached team this early in a season.

Singles (2-1, +1.23)

Eagles to score (1u to win 1u) *FoxBet Boost\*
Robert Woods 67.5 Rec Yrd Over (0.55u to win 0.5u)
TB Team Total 27.5 Points Over (0.55u to win 0.5u)
PIT -6.5 (1.2u to win 1u)
ATL +5 (1u to win 0.91u)
CeeDee Lamb 7+ Receptions (2u to win 5.6u)
CeeDee Lamb 75+ Receiving Yards & to Score a TD (2u to win 5.5u)
CeeDee Lamb & Julio Jones 75+ Rec Yards Each (2u to win 2.75u)
Ezekiel Elliott 75+ Rushing Yards & to Score a TD (2.5u to win 2.5u)
MIA +5.5 (1.02u to win 1u)
IND -3 (1.2u to win 1.02u)
DET + (Havent bet this yet. Looking to bet it right before game time, ESPECIALLY if it crosses 7)
NYG ml (0.5u to win 1.05u)
Saquon Barkley to score (2u to win 2.3u)
Saquon Barkley 30.5 Rec Yards Over (2.56u to win 2u)

Parlays (0-1, -4u)

DET +7, NYG +7.5, LAR +3, IND -3, MIA +7, PIT -6.5 (1.5u to win 41.97u)

Teasers (0-0)

TB -2, PIT -0.5, BAL -0.5, TEN -1, KC -2 (11.1u to win 38.85u)
TB -2, PIT -0.5, BAL -0.5, TEN -1, KC -2, LAR +8, DET +12.5, IND +3.5 (0u to win 45u) \*This is a FreeBet on William Hill for making the first teaser\*

Big Boy Daddy Long Shots

These are parlays that give me over 100-1 odds. I have ~~two ,~~ three of these in. Two are 13 teams, one is 12. I expect to lose these 99% of the time, they are more for the fun sweat. However since we started this experiment in 2018, my parlays and BBDLS have done fairly well over full seasons :D
Long story short, they all end with SEA ml so I have the option to hedge and middle if I desire. I will post these in the future, but I am on a time crunch today so I wont type them out but if I one hits, I will obviously post the proof.

Futures

I want to put SEA in here soooo bad, but after week 1 the odds have already dropped from +2200 to +1600. Parlaying them with the Lakers gets it back up to 2000.... Definitely thinking about how to take SEA to win their division, the NFC and possibly the ship. Too bad Fanduel doesn't let you parlay those XD

DraftKings $2 Million Pick em National Championship $1Million for First
Week 1 (1-4) Very difficult first week. But, honestly I didn't feel very confident with my week 1 picks and hindsight, I would have used week 1 as one of my bye weeks. No worries, lot of season to go!
Week 2

MIA +5.5
DET +6.5
LAR -1.5
PIT -7.5
IND -3.5

Thanks for reading, Good luck to all! :D

Rocket League eSports

Closing Line Value Pt 1

[OC] How many games would it take for the 7-59 Bobcats from '11-'12 to beat the '16-'17 Warriors?

Inspired by this nfl 0-16 Lions vs. 16-0 Patriots post.
There’s a reason why this year’s free agency has been so crazy. Teams are scrambling to find pieces that help them come even close to a hope of maybe winning one game in a series against an otherworldly force of basketball talent put together known as the Golden State Warriors. The Warriros dominance has been well documented this year, after adding a ~~snek~~ former MVP to a 73-9 team and going an incredible 16-1 in the playoffs to secure the championship. While many compare this year's Warriors team to many other historically great teams, this should not be all that important. Sure, maybe they'd win 55 of 100 against the 95-96 Bulls. Maybe 45. Who knows? But what does that even tell you? Nothing, really. Enter: The Bobcats.
What's more important than comparing them to the best is comparing these Warriors to the worst teams ever. Beating 73-9 was cool, but beating 9-73 was cooler. The legendary Cats did just that in the lockout-shortened 2010-11 season. Winning-percentage wise, the Gerald Henderson-led mistake of a team totaled a legendary .106 mark, beating the '72-'73 Sixers’ seemingly unbreakable .110 percentage during their 9-73 season. You thought the 73-9 Warriors streak of 24 wins to start the year was cool? The Bobcats did the exact opposite, cementing a historic run of defeats to end the year, when reaching the winning percentage record was looking bleak, with 23 STRAIGHT LOSSES. Incredible. They were last in league scoring and shooting percentage. They lost 22 games by 20 points or more. They traded a future first for Tyrus Thomas DURING the season. They increased the suicide rate in Charlotte by thirty percent. They were not very good at basketball.
And today we are going to put these two historical powerhouses toe-to-toe via simulation. So prepare your Next Chapter memes because Gerald Henderson, Cory Maggette, Byron Mullens, DJ Augustine and fetus Kemba Walker are putting their foot down. You want parity? Here it is. The Bobcats are going to defeat the Warriors, it’s just a matter of when. How many attempts will it take? 100? 10,000? 100,000? We'll find out.
The simulations will be done on whatifsports.com, a really awesome and realistic site for this stuff, where any team from any year can be entered and matched up against. The games will be played with the Warriors as the home team, because I am cruel like that.
THE ROSTERS
Warriors
PG- Steph Curry, Shaun Livingston
SG- Klay Thomspon, Ian Clark, Pat McCaw
SF- Kevin Durant, Andre Iguodala
PF- Draymond Green, James Michael McAdoo, Kevon Looney
C- Zaza Pachulia, David West, Javale McGee
Bobcats
PG- Kemba Walker, DJ Augustine
SG- Gerald Henderson, Matt Carroll
SF- Derrick Brown, Corey Maggette
PF- DJ White, Boris Diaw
C- Byron Mullens, Bismack Biyombo, Cody Zeller
These depth charts are what the site gave me. I switched around the minute division a bit for GS, but it remains the similar to what the site had. Players will be playing around the minutes they averaged during the regular season that year, for the most part.
As you can see, the Warriors are much better at most positions. Watch out for that Mullens vs. Zaza matchup, though.
First 10 Games
Just like it was done for Patriots-Lions, I’ll be going ten games at a time and then doing a quick summary of the ten games. The fans are ready, Steph is hitting his tunnel shots, the 30-point spread is being bet a ton, so let’s do this.
Game 1: Bobcats 108, Warriors 99
Bitch what the actual fuck.
I was all ready for a god-tier shitpost, all settled in. I couldn’t wait to see 200 Golden State wins in a row or whatever. But what the hell? They actually won the first game. Like I hit the sim button and I see this, and I’m just like… Wtff???
I mean, it’s crazy, because I can’t doubt the site much. I tried a ton of other simulations on the site beforehand and it seems to be pretty realistic and all. I can’t believe this.
So I guess I’m done with this, it’s been a fun experiment. Let’s look at what happened during the game, I guess, because the site gives it to you after you’re done the simulation. I’m shook.
RECAP
Scoreboard 1
Jesus Christ.
The Cats were somehow up 26-24 at the end of the first. Reminds me of Brooklyn being close with the Dubs at the half during this past year. Memes and jokes and everything on Twitter but everyone knew they’d comeback and crush them, and they did. But I guess the Bobcats are a different breed, because their fate was different.
In the 2nd quarter, Charlotte started out with a bang. They were up 53-41 at one point, causing mass hysteria. However, the Dubs, as per usual, put up huge offensive numbers, hitting the 37 point mark to go into the half up 61-59, with 20 in the last 4:23 stretch. Still a close one.
The 3rd was where that god-awful Bobcats offense shun through, failing to score a single point from 11:13 in the quarter to 6:39, and everyone was back to reality, I guess. 23-17 in the quarter, 84-76 going into the final frame.
Cue dramatic 30-for-30 music. This is where shit hit the goddamn fan. Did Draymond Green touch a ball at the same time as and switch bodies with Byron Mullens? Did Steph Curry contract a disease in China? Did the toaster break? Did KD start thinking it was Game 7 of the WCF again? These pesky Bobcats went on a run, and it didn’t end. 32-15 to close it out. 7 points in the last 9 minutes for GS. What. The. Hell. Let’s check the stats.
STATS
At first glance I’ve decided I’m going to blame this on the fact that apparently Kevon Looney and James Michael McAdoo combinined for 13 minutes. That’s ridiculous. It’s what the site had as their default minutes, but I should’ve known better. Clearly.
Anyway, looking at the actual stars, it’s clear that the Warriors should give their “Strength in Numbers” tagline to these gritty Bobcats. Because while fetus Kemba and Corey Maggette combined for 37 attempts with only 40 points to show for them, Warrior killers Derrick Brown and Byron Mullens scored 18 and 15 on 6/9 and 5/8 shooting a piece, coming up huge for Charlotte off of the bench. Gerald Henderson, who led the team in scoring during the ’11-’12 at 15.1 PPG (lol), only scored 12. And they still somehow won. Warrior-killer Mullens was a game-high rebounder with 12, and when he wasn’t patrolling the paint, Biyombo (aka dad) grabbed 4 offensive boards in only 16 minutes. The game-high assist total was also on the Bobcats side, with player-of-the-game recipient Kemba dishing out 8.
Alright, let’s look at the Warriors stats. Klay played more minutes than anyone for some reason, and had one of those off, non-toasty nights, scoring only 12 at 2/7 from 3. His splash brother didn’t fare much better, scoring 18 on 17 shots. The team as a whole only shot 34.5% from 3. And KD’s respectable 25 points on 10/18 shooting clearly was not enough to make up for lackluster performances all-around. In terms of the bench, for some reason, JaVale took 10 shots, and there was no real spark to be found anywhere. Looking back, it was kind of dumb that the actual regular season minute averages were played, because the Warriors stars have such low totals. That’s life, I guess.
EXPLANATIONS?

After further analysis, I’ve found one explanation for what happened. IT WAS RIGGED. Look at the free-throw totals. 28 for Charlotte, only 6 for Golden State, despite both teams averaging around 17 throughout their respective seasons. WhatIfSports.com does not give you referee info, but I can only assume that Tim Donaughy had the Charlotte moneyline, and it must’ve been a nice payout.
Here’s another piece of clarification that I somehow missed before. The play-by-play shows you who was on the floor, when. And look at these freaking lineups that were being used at points.

Ah, the lethal McAdoo-McGee pairing to begin the 4th quarter
Gotta give the four all-stars a break. Together. At once. For 4 minutes.
This one hurts my eyes.
CONCLUSION
I’ve had some time to digest this and here are my final thoughts regarding an explanation towards how this extraordinary event occurred.
Instead of searching for intricacies, I think that we should just take the outcome for what it is. Who am I to question a site that with an algorithm more complicated than I could understand. Maybe we should accept the fact that the only team who can defeat these Warriors happens to somehow be the ’11-‘12 Bobcats. They just have the best brought out of themselves when competing against ultra-superior completion. Maybe they just matchup really, really well with these Warriors. For those who do not enjoy the GS reign on the league, this is a blessing. We now know the blueprint to beat them. Whatever this screwed-up, bizarre, beautiful collection of misfits these Bobcats have complied clearly happens to be that. A team that represents the keys to beating Golden State. It’s the style they play, the personnel they have, and the philosophies they have been taught that have equipped them to do so. In some ways it’s magical, but it’s the outcome of a lifelike simulation, so why not trust it? I’m not saying that NBA teams should follow this blueprint in the real world, but, it’s a claim with real evidence behind it. Maybe these Bobcats are the team. The kryptonite to the Superman the Warriors have come to be. I was going to restart, but I think I’m going to leave it at this. Whatifsports.com is totally legit and realistic, so chances that even without adjusting the minutes to make more sense, the Warriors will win a ton of games. And they will win even more if I do adjust them. But an experiment is an experiment, and I have to display my results, because I have conducted it and found an answer to my question that started it all. So here’s the answer.

THE ‘11-‘12 BOBCATS WOULD TAKE A TOTAL OF 1 GAME TO BEAT THE ‘16-‘17 WARRIORS

best moneyline bets today video

Bets based on Hottest Trends Bets based on Hottest Trends. Recommended bets that also have performed well historically. The list updates in real time. To meet the criteria, an upcoming game must display: 1. 3 to 5 star best bet rating to indicate strong value right now. 2. Trends must have a 55% profitable win rate over at least 10 games The best way to explain how moneyline bets are paid is with an actual example. Let’s use this past Super Bowl between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs as an example. The easiest way to understand moneyline wagers is by using a $100 bet. Using the above example, the moneyline on the underdog Buccaneers was +136. MoneyLine Spread Total Lines Game Info Money Line Spread Over/Under Game Info Model Gabe Morency Cam Stewart Guest; Game Win % Model {{ mainVM.var.books[mainVM.var.book] }} How Moneyline Bets are Paid Out. Moneyline bets are set in relation to how much a bettor would have to bet to win $100 if betting on the favorite, or how much they’d win if they bet $100 on the underdog. So, for example, to win $100 on the Red Sox in game 1, bettors had to risk $120. Moneyline betting is the simplest form of betting on sports.Whether you’re new to gambling or a seasoned bettor, you’ve likely already placed a moneyline bet at some point in your life.. Moneyline bettors don’t care about how many points that games are won by or how many total points are scored. How Do I Know What The Pickswise Best Bets For Today Are? Our best bets of the day are transparent and 100% free in order to help you learn more about how to devise winning wagers of your own. All of our free picks have a star rating which represents our confidence level, the more stars the more confidence we have in the free pick with three stars being the highest. How To Handicap Moneyline Bets. Before placing any moneyline bets, an experienced sports bettor will do extensive research into the game. Breaking down matchups, odds and specific team advantages are all part of the process of handicapping sports and even then, it’s not an exact science for long-term success. The moneyline, spread, and totals for each game will see plenty of action. Which one is best will vary depending on the situation, but it all ultimately comes down to your confidence level. Returns can be more predictable on spreads and totals, but the moneyline is the easiest of the three bets to place. Types of parlay bets The most popular types of parlays are Against the Spread Parlays and Teasers but you can parlay many different types of bet and even a mixture of bets in the same parlay. Aside from Against the Spread, parlaying Moneyline picks is also popular, often used to combine a few strong favorites to increase the odds compared to placing multiple individual straight wagers.

College Football Moneylines BetQL

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Core Plays - Week 8

NFL Core Plays: Week 8

Table of Contents

QB Core

Primary Tier

Secondary Tier

Third Tier

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

In Between Tier (In play but I'm likely to be under / not excited about)

QB Fades

Ideal Stack Pairings

RB Core

Primary Tier

Secondary Tier

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

Lower-Ceiling / Volume and/or TD Plays

RB Fades

Standout RB Notes

WR Core

Primary Tier

Secondary Tier

Tier 3

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

The In-Betweeners

Standout WR Notes

TE Core

Primary Tier

Secondary Tier

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

TE Fades

TE Standout Notes

DST Core

Additional Notes

We'll also make sure to explain all the benefits our Boogie Factor brings to the table and how to use it to your advantage.

Added Notes: Potential Game-Stacks to Target / Fade

CreateYoureReality NFL Divisional Round Analysis and Picks

UFC Thompson vs Neal

CreateYoureReality NFL Week 17 Analysis and Picks (Last week of regular season!!!😀 )

CreateYoureReality NFL Week 12 Sunday Games Analysis and Picks

CreateYoureReality Week 3 NFL Analysis and Picks

MLB (Main Slate) Pitchers & Stacks + Sports Betting Picks!

CreateYoureReality Week 2 NFL Analysis and Picks

Rocket League eSports

Closing Line Value Pt 1

[OC] How many games would it take for the 7-59 Bobcats from '11-'12 to beat the '16-'17 Warriors?

THE ‘11-‘12 BOBCATS WOULD TAKE A TOTAL OF 1 GAME TO BEAT THE ‘16-‘17 WARRIORS

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